for the past week or so, the battery went back to showing 45% battery life. however, i finally managed to get the right appointment, and i made the trip to the apple store today.
the very friendly genius booted up my mbp with a diagnostic tool and within seconds, it showed that the battery was bad.
he removed the battery, and to my surprise, it was bloated. i have never noticed that before because my mbp has a speck protective case, so the bottom is always flat and doesn't rock despite the bloated battery.
according to the genius, sony batteries have a likelihood to suffer from that problem. i never knew mine was a sony battery, because it never occurred to me that it mattered so i never checked. searched online, and it seems that there are many cases of bloated sony batteries. the replacement battery is manufactured by smp, which apparently is a more durable battery. would have cost me £77, but applecare took care of that.
i'm trying to calibrate the battery now – trying to run the battery power down after leaving it fully charged for at least 2 hours – and the cpu temperature is about 48°C on average 'idle' (ethernet, wifi off, firefox, adium, vuze, tweetdeck). also using fancontrol with base speed at 2000 rpm (threshold: lower at 40, higher at 70).
the laptop feels cool and quiet, the way it should be.
apple's service is painless (though was slightly hard to get a convenient appointment at the regent street store in london), and applecare makes sense.