Mainyehc said:
No they won't, because Apple's "killer feature Y" is the combination of great software and gorgeous, functional hardware...
That is todays killer feature.
Just as a way out example, if on Tuesday, Microsoft was to release a video/audio player, that had a 20 hour battery life for video playback and longer for audio only and they somehow found a way to import your current iTunes libraries etc etc, and sold it at say $350 per player (they have money to burn so an initial loss is ok)..it looked cool, it interected seemlessly etc etc etc...
The market will shift by wednesday, iPods are like cell phones, and hey they are cell phones too these days, its a fashion accessory, loaded with all sorts of features and colors etc. Back in the late 80's early 90's cell phones were a business tool only, for posers (stock brokers n yuppies) or execs, they were generally either black of grey, they were big hulking heavy bricks. Style factor of zero. Now they are all about style and having your latest phone seen in the hands of the hottest celebs.
Music players are at the same level, if it was all about function the players would be different. it has always been a PITA reentering phone numbers into new cell phones, but we all do it, although with GSM we have a memory card of sorts that will help.
The killer of the iPods dominance will be something even trendier, and given how people are with needing the latest greatest, an app that can import music.
Right now i don't see the market changing, but hindsight is 20/20, i'm sure all the analysts can pin point the first time the Sony engine missed a beat and their portable electronics division went south some time later.
Of course, Apple could become the portable media player 800lb gorilla equivalent that Microsoft is in the OS market. We just have to wait 20-25 years to see what happens.