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Bill Gates says cell phone will beat iPod

Why do people even listen to this guy's predictions anymore? Some of his most memorable were that the internet was a fad that would soon die away, and that MSN was Microsoft's best hope for survival. Seriously, I could pick some guy off the street who could estimate the future of technology better than Gates.

That is both comforting and terrifying. Could you image what could have been if Gates had anything approaching the technological instincts of Steve? :eek:

Edit: Why was the thread closed?
Re-Edit: Seems to be open again after a short delay. Musta been a glitch.
 
Eniregnat said:
I don't think that Microsoft is desperate, perhaps Gates is as the defacto cheif spokes celebrity for Microsoft, but I don't think that Longhorn will be a joke financialy. It will really dominate the market, and it will usher in a new level of digital rights management to media, applications, and network access. A kind of management that looks good to theos that believe that they are loosing all sorts of money due to piracy. It may force priceing to drop.

The iPod will die quickly if it remains just a media player and storage drive. It will grow if it cotinues to be crossplatform and expands it uses. I think that Microsoft sees music downloads as just the start. I think that they see the market as media and perhaps more.
Click to expand...
Yea right, and pigs fly.
 
Quote from the article:
"I think you can draw parallels here with the computer - here, too, Apple was once extremely strong with its Macintosh and graphic user interface, like with the iPod today, and then lost its position."

Apple was once extremely strong in graphic user interface? What is it now, Mr. Gates?

If Apple's Mac & graphic user interface are so poor, then why are you still copying it?
 
iPods are incredibly popular still............ Tiger has been getting glowing reviews, at the expense of Windows........ This is a normal reaction to that.
 
Gimzotoy said:
Why do people even listen to this guy's predictions anymore? Some of his most memorable were that the internet was a fad that would soon die away, and that MSN was Microsoft's best hope for survival. Seriously, I could pick some guy off the street who could estimate the future of technology better than Gates.
Click to expand...

I don't know. He has pretty much made or bought the future he needs.
I did find a sited quote that apply here.

"Hey, Steve, just because you broke into Xerox's store before I did and took the TV doesn't mean I can't go in later and steal the stereo."
-- Bill Gates, Microsoft, 3/14/89--as quoted in MacWEEK, 1/9/90 p. 23 Humm, perhaps there is some forshadowing here.from here

Microsoft has the ability to change how the markets work, based just on its presence. If it wants subscription based downloads then it will have it. If it wants its DRM scheme to be the dominate one, it can force it upon us by just requiring that it work with the dominant operating system for personal home computers.
 
Agreed

lokey said:
...He's right, but he fails to realize that Apple has forever planted their name in the digital music revolution
[...]
I don't think that people want to seperate their devices and have a music player, a cell phone and a PDA.
[...]
The iPod has the potential to be all that if Apple enters that market. They won't though. :(
Click to expand...
lokey made the best comment for me so far. Usually, when B.G. says something, I'm ripe to believe quite the opposite. But this time, I think that man is right. Convergence is desirable after all, even with all the dead product-bodies lying around it's path. People want to carry around a single nifty device, not several (or even tens) of devices!

It all comes down to if you can make a phone+iPod that won't compromise on either function. And I bet you can. It's only a matter of technology evolution and time.
 
I'm sorry, but until battery technology is MUCH better, I would not want my phone to be an MP3 player. I can listen to music, but as soon as I NEED to make a call, the phone's dead.
The iPod will not last forever, but its name will live on forever.

Anyone see the NEW episdoes of Doctor Who? On episode 2, the "last human" gave gifts from earth. One of those gifts was an old-school jukebox. She told the aliens that in the 21st century, this was affectionately known as "iPod." That was priceless. :D

Laslty, for a man with the billions Gates is supposed to have, he should be able to afford a better piece than what he wears...
 
Oh, let's listen to Mr. Re-Boot XP,re-boot 98, re-boot 95

Mr. Durden said:
You totally misconstrueing my point. I agree with the point that the iPod wont last forever (see my original post). However, there are ways in which you can say things, that even though true, come off as "bitter" or narrow minded or jealous.

My point is, the man pretty much controls the computer world, and when a little music gadget that he didnt personally make, becomes a big hit, he acts like a 2 year old who just had his toy taken away.

Every since the iPod came out and especially since the iTunes Music Store kicked off, all Billy Boy and the rest of the bullies at MS have done is predict the downfall of iPod and iTMS. Notice how he didnt say, "portable music players will be replaced by phones". Nope, he had to specifically point out the iPod, as if the other portable music players (supported by MS) are immune to the evolution of technology. In my book, that comes off as bitter.
Click to expand...

This guy is getting beat with his poorly performing error message
infected software. Let's all hope you personally won't last forever
Mr. Gates either but I bet when they bury you with your billions,ipods will still be working...when you see jokes about people throwing out
their computers out the window at work, shooting them...they are
your personal computers Mr. Gates or should I say, Mr. Re-Boot.
 
I seriously doubt that cell phones will replace iPod in a near future.
First, the charm with the iPod is its simplicity. I am Swedish, but looking at the UI of new SonyEricsson W800i makes me want to emigrate.
Secondly, due to the total mess of different incompatible standards (GSM,UTMS,PDC,CDMA,WCDMA...) you will not be able to use your cellphone/iPod if you travel internationally. (I have an american CDMA phone that I use when I fly over to US)
Just look at the latest third generation wireless standard. Most people thought/hoped that one standard would prevail. Alas, now we have e.g. differentiation within UTMS. If you buy a UMTS phone in Japan you can't use it in europe...
In a far far future, we might get a convergence towards one standard....but I doubt it.
 
Well, the point is that Apple can't maintain 70% market share forever. Their best bet is to 1) sell as much AAC as possible to get some sort of stick to their dominance and 2) to get everyone using iTunes (I'm talking the jukebox now, not the store). These aren't as sticky as the Windows operating system, but it's definitely harder to switch a jukebox that's organized well and plays protected AAC than it is to download Explorer and forget about Netscape.

And, of course, making great iPods won't hurt either!

Finally, Jobs has got to find a way to deal with the cell phone guys. Even if it's just licensing iTunes and giving them 99% of the revenue from song sales, he can't let this be WMA territory.

Just MHO.
 
Eniregnat said:
Back on topic. I don't think that Microsoft is desperate, perhaps Gates is as the defacto cheif spokes celebrity for Microsoft, but I don't think that Longhorn will be a joke financialy. It will really dominate the market, and it will usher in a new level of digital rights management to media, applications, and network access. A kind of management that looks good to theos that believe that they are loosing all sorts of money due to piracy. It may force priceing to drop.

The iPod will die quickly if it remains just a media player and storage drive. It will grow if it cotinues to be crossplatform and expands it uses. I think that Microsoft sees music downloads as just the start. I think that they see the market as media and perhaps more.
Click to expand...
They may not be desperate now, but when longhorn flops they will be ;) .
 
I'd love to see more technology pushed towards cell phones as well, not saying that a cell phone will kill the ipod ;). Personally, I'd rather not have to carry multiple devices if I can do with 1 or 2. Cell/laptop/MD/Camera. If I can get the cell/music/a "decent" camera in one package I'd be happy. It is not like I carry a few days of music with me anyway.


Jetson said:
This is too funny! And so appropriate.

Gates has $60 billion and sits on top of the world with his Windows monopoly (stolen from Apple, by the way). You'd think he'd be happy that someone else is making some money.
Click to expand...
He does ;) - $21.3 billion is now the value of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation - CBS. [edit] I misread your statement, thought you said "think he'd be happy to give someone else some money" or something to that effect.
 
Carriers will screw it up for themselves...

Another reason it will take a long time for cell phones to eclipse the ipod in terms of functionality is the carriers. They will be greedy and try to build in proprietary formats and limit use of your own mp3's or iTMS aac's, just like Sony did initially with their netWalkman players. Just look at what cell carriers have done with ring tones- millions of people pay $2-6 EACH for crappy 30 second tones; They've already made billions selling them, but I don't think people are going to pay such high prices for music that's basically trapped on their phone. Until I can have a relatively small phone with as much of MY music as I want, it's not gonna happen; at least not anytime soon... :rolleyes:
 
They're missing the whole picture.

The iPod is not wildly popular because it plays mp3s. Its popular because of how simple the interface and design is. Thats why you see AVERAGE walking around with them on the street. Non just the tech toy-savvy.

You spin the wheel, and click on what you want it to play. Your grandma can figure it out in 5 seconds.

Argue if you want, but smart phone/pda devices are nerd toys. Until they reach the elegance and simplicity of what the iPod has accomplished. Most people aren't going to care.
 
No cell mp3 player like the iPod

I don´t think that Billy is right this time. I only use my cell phone to communicate, nothing else and this very seldom. But I love my iPod 20GB, i think it will take a while to get this amount into a cellphone.
Well I think time will tell but Steve will be ahead like with Tiger.

Andy
 
An all-in-one device won't happen. . ..

. . until battery life is no longer an issue. IMHO the reason all-in-one are loved are twofold 1) they tend to be way to big, look at the first palm pilot phones, they were great, but so darn big compared to every other phone 2) battery life. Who wants to worry that all of their music listening while out and about will affect whether or not they can get a phone call. Right now, cell phones can last a long time on stand-by. But let's say you are on a long flight and don't know when you will be near a power source - will you want to listen to your mp3 player phone if it might almost be out of juice when you land? You don't want something that could be sitting around saving power/ ready to go when you land to be out of juice when you need it.
 
Amen, Bro

Mr. Durden said:
My point is, the man pretty much controls the computer world, and when a little music gadget that he didnt personally make, becomes a big hit, he acts like a 2 year old who just had his toy taken away.
Click to expand...

This is exactly was I thought when I read it. The man is *sick*. Why would a man with his kind of dough even *care* enough about iPods to make this kind of comment. Is he that obssessed with controlling everything in the world of computers?

Its almost scary.
 
Typical. Finally saying what others (search these forums for example) have been saying for years. Most people will end up carrying one device, probably a phone. That is why an iPhone or iPod Phone or whatever it is called would be a KILLER device from Apple. ;-)
 
no. i cannot see that happening. the whole world probably knows of my disgust towards all-in-one devices.

so im on the bus, listening to my EYEphone (by microsoft, of course) as the battery is powering a mobile phone and a hard drive based music player. oh dear! battery dead. who didnt see that coming? what with all the weight and the bulk of an all in one device.

streaming music? nope. not unless your phone connected to your own personal computer left on at home. which i doubt will happen for a long time, because then you would need a broadband connection and a top of the range phone. which probably is a small number of people (outside of this community). it would cost a FORTUNE to stream from phone companies too. not to mention the battery life issue of keeping your phone connected, and your phone being 'busy'.

give me seperates anyday. iPod, mobile phone, GBA/DS. done.

dear god what will they come up with next?
 
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