Jesus said:
1) It randomly mutates/evolves into having the ability to infect person-->person. Only 1/100000000 viruses mutate and then there is a miniscule chance that it will mutate to affect people. It will involves some very particular mutations of particular genes. If this was to ever happen it would take hundreds/thousands of years to occur, by whick time the virus would have died out anyway.
That's a wonderfully precise statistic. Where did you get it?
How many virions are there in an infected individual? I wouldn't be surprised if it is at least 100,000,000 - in which case the probabilities are very much less unlikely. And your info about "thousands of years" is also dubious, given that a flu virus generation time is probably in the order of hours and so the opportunities for mutation in a given time are higher than for most organisms.
Jesus said:
2) It gets together with an infulenza virus and they swap RNA (sic) and the influenza virus happens to pass the avian flu virus the RNA required to travel person-->person. Again, this is extremely unlikely.
I would argue that this is pretty darned likely actually. Point 1) is reasonable, because you are saying that random mutation alone is unlikely to change one virus into another type. But horizontal gene transfer between two viruses is highly likely and is the reason why new strains constantly emerge each year and that people are never immune to colds etc. Get a bird flu replicating in a human cell at the same time as a human flu, and ooops, the wrong RNA gets packged in the wrong coat, or some kind of funny RNA recombination takes place... --> new strain with a mixture of capabilities.
I don't think it's too much to worry about - we're better prepared and able to cope than ever - but history tells us that a flu pandemic will happen some time soon. It's almost certain. Best thing to do is avoid people as much as possible once it hits - and if you get it, do the decent thing and try to quarantine yourself