Sure. The logic applies both ways.
What you *can* do is carefully study the ISA and see if either of them offers an inherent advantage or disadvantage. And as someone who designed both RISC and x86-64 chips, I‘ve done that.
Arm‘s advantages are a much simpler instruction decoder that allows you to reduce the size of the core by a reasonable percentage, the avoidance of terrible addressing modes and, especially, all the gunk that goes into backwards x86 compatibility, and, if you believe that a compiler thinking about a problem for awhile can do a better job than a few million transistors that have to run in real time, then the simpler instruction set is an advantage too. Otherwise, if you feel like compilers do a bad job, x86-64 may have an advantage due to heftier instructions (though a lot of that goes away if you are running in pure 64-bit mode).
Any Intel trick to speed things up (branch prediction algorithms, multithreading, whatever) can be done just as easily on Arm as x86. But since x86 will always have deeper pipelines, it’s actually easier to do a lot of these things on Arm. (The penalty for guessing wrong, flushing the pipeline, and trying again is less when the pipeline is shallower. This means you can get away with less branch prediction accuracy, which means fewer transistors, and achieve the same performance).
In the end it’s all probably a wash other than the fact that x86-64 will always need more transistors to do the same job, which means more power consumption, and longer wires (which slow things down). How much of an effect that is will vary depending on lots of factors. But the one thing I can tell you for sure is that x86-64, with equal chip designers using equal fabs, does not have any advantage.
Thank you for this well thought out answer.
Am I correct in saying that x86 translates internally to RISC? Whereas this isn’t necessary for the ARM ISA? Thus calculation time is wasted on translation which means x86 draws more power and requires a great number of transistors to do the same job? Apologies - I haven’t studied processor design and always wished this was available to me at university.
Why haven’t we seen ARM chips as powerful as Xeons / Golds today? Is it a matter of innovation, marketing to small iterations to sell more or something else?