LethalWolfe said:
Hollywood studios are already starting to pick sides. Why? Probably because the companies behind each tech made deals w/them. The studio's can't play "wait and see" because no one is going to buy a new player if their is no content to play on that player. Studios don't want to spend 2x the money releasing to both formats so they are going to take sides and promote their choice as the best until the bitter end.
You pay too much attention to hype an too little to the realities of the marketplace. If Blu-ray players are in the hands of enough consumers, you can be assured that Hollywood producers will provide recorded content for them. It is true that some companies have endorsed HD-DVD and others endorsed Blu-ray. However, these are not exclusive commitments. Let me put it this way: Disney backs Blu-ray and Viacom backs HD-DVD. Do you honestly believe that Viacom will abdicate the Blu-ray market to Disney if Blu-ray eclipses HD-DVD? If HD-DVD tops Blu-ray, do you believe that Disney will pick up its marbles and go home? Even the hardware manufacturers will play either camp, irrespective of their prior commitments. Afterall, Sony and Zenith sell VHS VCRs now.
LethalWolfe said:
And this is very simular to the VHS/Beta battle in the early 80's. Beta was the better quality format but it lost (peception is more important than reality when it comes to product sales).
This is the myth of VHS/Beta, but the reality is quite different. Beta lost to VHS for two major reasons. Until the porn industry pioneered the recorded movie market, VCRs were used almost exclusively to time-shift broadcast TV shows. VHS could record 2 hours, whereas Beta could only record 1 hour. Over the years, there were several revisions--not all of them backward compatible--to Beta. However, VHS could always record longer than Beta. The other major reason is that Beta was sold by Sony and Zenith whereas you could get VHS from darned near everyone else, including RCA, GE, Panasonic, JVC,
etc. As for Beta's technical superiority, it is true that engineers loved Beta. However, people watched VCRs on their TVs, not their oscilloscopes. On a 1975 model TV set, VHS looked better. Although it is not the same Beta that we had in 1976, Beta found its niche as the analog medium of choice for professional camcorders.
LethalWolfe said:
HD-DVD has a leg up because it will, last I heard, hit the market a year before Blu-ray.
As others have pointed out, here you are just plain wrong. Blu-ray is already on the market in Japan. HD-DVD is still in development. HD-DVD recorders are not expected until the end of 2005.
LethalWolfe said:
Also, I've read that a company is working on a way to imbed an SD layer of video inside an HD-DVD disc. So you could, assuming it works as advertised, buy the HD-DVD disc and it will play the SD layer in current DVD players and the HD layer in HD-DVD players. That's a selling point if I've ever heard one.
Again you are misinformed. Both Blu-ray players and HD-DVD players will play existing DVDs. There is simply no issue of compatibility with your existing DVD library. It is protected in this dispute.
LethalWolfe said:
IMO Hi-def DVDs aren't going to take the public by storm the way DVDs have. The difference between VHS and DVD is huge. Much, much better quality, more bang for your buck (i.e. special features), a cool, sexy modern technology. The step from DVDs to hi-def DVDs is going to be an evolution, not a revolution.
Lethal
When your facts are wrong, it is understandable that your conclusions are also wrong. Do the math. I think that you will find that high-definition optical disks represent about the save technical leap over DVD that DVD represents over VHS.
