Except HDCP doesn't work over VGA, so any commercial Blu-ray won't play.
Blu-ray will playback fine over analogue (component and VGA) connections provided that the disc:
1) Does not implement the Image Constraint Token (ICT). If it does the video will be downrezzed to 960x540 over an analogue connection.
2) Has the digital only token (DOT) in which case an encrypted digital link is required.
None of the blu-ray disks out there have either of these tokens set so full rez video over VGA should be possible.