Read the other threads for TONS of discussion.
There's a bunch more than your simple assessment. Not all damage is covered by $200 Out-Of-Warranty replacements, see support.apple.com
Second accident in two years? Out of pocket you're at $400, AppleCare+ you're at $200 ($100 + $50 + $50).
You also get all the usual Applecare benefits like full phone support for two years vs 90 days, and replacements for warranty items in year two are free (home button, battery < 50% capacity, power button, etc).
Is it worth it for everyone? Of course not. It is also not a simple "one replacement" comparison as you portray; that does a disservice to other people who might not be as savvy as you are and understand all the other factors you didn't have a chance to write about in your post.