I know how they work. I also know for a fact, that even if claims were to drop tenfold, they still wouldn't reduce their premiums in the long run. It would be deemed a glorious era of profits for them and the shareholders would pat them on the back.
The number of young people making motor claims here actually dropped 10% in the past few years but premiums continue to rise way above inflation, but only for the young. They are effectively using a stereotype to justify it now.
I know it's not ethically right, but neither are the practices of many financial services practices and the detrimental loss to the individual far outweighs theirs on the grand scheme of things.
Besides, it is hardly fraud if he already has home insurance in place is it. The accident did actually happen. LOL
Okay this is a bit off topic, but just to answer your one point. There are a lot of factors that go into premium increases. You only see one factor, accidents in one sector are reduced. But you do not know for sure if the number of new drivers has increased, thus creating an increase in risk to the company for loss. Also, the reinsurance market, ie the insurance companies for insurance companies took a beating the past couple of years and have hardened the rates, so insurance companies are paying more to transfer their risks and thus they pass those costs onto us and finally, the financial markets are in the toilet, the main income for an insurance company is investing the money from premiums and making a return. With rates and markets in the toilet, insurance companies are not making the returns they need and so, that shortfall comes from...you guessed it, us!
Yeah I know it bites, but insurance is not as evil as people think, oh its evil, but not as much as people really think.