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Average Pro

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Jul 16, 2013
440
185
Cali
A few of us are trying to identify which businesses need to desperately change and prepare for fully automated vehicles. This is based on the rationale that there will be no financial benefit to owning a personal vehicle once automation is available. Here is what I came up with so far.

Washing (wax, soap, brushes, etc)
Maintenance (tools, drain buckets, lifts, etc)
Registering (DMV)
Insurance (USAA, AAA, Farmers, etc)
Losing your keys
Looking for parking
Parking tickets (city income revenue loss)
Extended warranties
Warranties
Gas stations
Underground fuel tanks
Fuel transportation (semi trucks and plants)
Speeding tickets (police and city income revenue loss)
Vehicle accidents (legal and hospital revenue loss)
All car parts stores (tires, batteries, windshield wipers, oil, transmission fluid, coolant, seat covers, car covers, tools, spark plugs, custom rims, exhaust, etc)
Parking lots (property owner revenue loss)
And all businesses that support that above businesses

One upside I can think of is that you can convert your 1,2 or 3 car garage into something other than car storage, thus increasing the living space and value of your home.

It will be interesting to see who will service this massive fleet of vehicles. However, once thing Tesla has shown us is the significant drop in vehicle maintenance. It's possible some of the independent service shops will make if they can attract smaller rental businesses.
 

wonderings

macrumors 6502
Nov 19, 2021
471
415
I can't see personally owned vehicles going away anytime soon. First they are a status symbol and there are people who actually enjoy driving. I was assuming you were talking about self driving cars and an eco system like in Minority Report. If it were to happen though, you would still need washing, maintenance, registering, insurance, IT maintenance, accidents would still happen. Most of this would just all be centralized though as someone would be maintaining a massive MASSIVE fleet of vehicles if everyone got rid of their vehicles and relied on some sort of subscription model. I do not want to give up my independence with a vehicle. I do not want to be subject to a companies guidelines in order to use their product.

Electric vehicles while "green" will still have a tremendous negative impact on the planet. First the lithium mining and then the disposal of batteries which are highly toxic.
 

cthompson94

macrumors 6502
Jan 10, 2022
308
309
SoCal
Yeah I am not quite sure how we will get to no personally owned vehicles, much of the U.S. is separated by large amounts of land and a lot of rural areas have miles between just neighbors. Most cities would also need a complete revamp of the public transportation system also because not everyone would have uber or whatever company money to afford those types of transportation.

Some of those businesses will switch like gas stations will slowly change to charging stations to fit the demand of more chargers needed especially with doing a quick charge because say you forgot to charge at home. People will always still want their car cleaned and personalized so I think carwashes and stores that sell interior customizations and parts will still survive (so long as repairs are still able to be handled by the consumer)

Although I think in a fully autonomous vehicle society the risk of accidents will greatly be diminished, but machines and programs are not perfect and mechanical failures will still happen, also maybe insurance could slightly switch up what exactly is insured, at the moment it is basically covering for accidents, but with less accidents maybe covering the cost of battery replacements or really anything after the manufactures warranty because there will not suddenly be this lifetime warranty on every vehicle from the factory.

Lastly, I am not sure how parking lots will still not be available, maybe in the most ideal scenario in a major city where you can easily call up an autonomous vehicle for pickup, but that is just not possible countrywide.
 

Madhatter32

macrumors 65816
Apr 17, 2020
1,176
2,368
If vehicles can fly then just imagine all the other businesses that will disappear as well. I think only then people will finally give up their personal vehicles because those vehicles will be too expensive to own individually.
 

wonderings

macrumors 6502
Nov 19, 2021
471
415
If vehicles can fly then just imagine all the other businesses that will disappear as well. I think only then people will finally give up their personal vehicles because those vehicles will be too expensive to own individually.
not sure why people would give up "ground" vehicles if we had flying cars. Can you even imagine a crowded mall at Christmas time if everyone was flying and hovering in to park, would be pure chaos. Cars you are dealing with forward, back, left and right, adding up and down to that with hover cars and how people don't even check what's around them when driving I see massive problems. There is no real benefit to flying cars, especially in urban areas. I can see for travel as you can actually take the shortest direction.
 

Madhatter32

macrumors 65816
Apr 17, 2020
1,176
2,368
not sure why people would give up "ground" vehicles if we had flying cars. Can you even imagine a crowded mall at Christmas time if everyone was flying and hovering in to park, would be pure chaos. Cars you are dealing with forward, back, left and right, adding up and down to that with hover cars and how people don't even check what's around them when driving I see massive problems. There is no real benefit to flying cars, especially in urban areas. I can see for travel as you can actually take the shortest direction.
Interesting. I can envision massive roof top parking lots though if necessary. But, by the time this could be commonplace, I highly doubt that malls or similar such places will still exist. All you will really need to live is internet access. Also, these vehicles would be fully automated -- in keeping with the OP's point.

I am pretty sure I will be long gone before any of this is a reality.
 

mollyc

macrumors 603
Aug 18, 2016
5,728
32,294
Why would you assume people would no longer own cars? Wouldn't the more logical progression be that people buy Apple (or other self driving cars) to replace their existing cars? Otherwise you would need to schedule a car every time you wanted to leave the house?
 

Average Pro

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Jul 16, 2013
440
185
Cali
First and foremost, I am car guy through-and-through. Love late 60's muscle cars and the need for speed.

My rational for a majority of the population giving up their personal vehicle is that owning one will not make fiscal sense. As stated by E.Musk, Tesla owners will be able to send their vehicle off to generate income when they are not using it. So, drive yourself to work and then let your vehicle pick up customers for the 8 hours you're working. Even individual/businesses loan out their private aircraft to generate income when they are not using them. The upcoming generations realize it does not make sense to pay for something that sits idle more than it's used, depreciates in value, and costs money to maintain. Yes, car collectors, clubs and like will remain but those vehicles will show up in parades or on special occasions.

As for insurance. It no longer applies once you get in an automated vehicle you do not own. When you get in a taxi, you are not responsible for any accident the driver makes. This topic has been addressed and the conclusion reached is to include the price of insurance in the price of the service. When someone purchases a plane/train/boat ticket, the company providing the service includes the insurance cost into account the price of the ticket.

As for having independence, once 30% of vehicles on the road function autonomously, a person with a manually operated vehicle, will not be able to speed or drive in an aggressive manner. They will be part of the collective whether they're plugged in or not. In short terms, you will travel at the speed of the autonomous vehicles. How is someone in a manually operated vehicle going to intimate an autonomous vehicle? Honk, tailgate, rev the motor, flip it off, yell. And...1984 (G. Orwell)...all of those vehicles have cameras with speed and motion sensors which will report it to the authorities and insurance company.

I cannot wait for the day when I can select a time I want to be at a location and a car will show up at a predesignated time and take me there. Meanwhile, I can nap, work or enjoy a meal and know I'll arrive at the desired time.

It's coming.
 

KaliYoni

macrumors 65816
Feb 19, 2016
1,037
2,324
Can't wait for this exchange to happen:

Me: (angry) Your AutoPod just dumped me somewhere I don't even recognize.
Apple "Genius": (bored) Can you explain what you're trying to do?
Me: I'm trying to get to work! Your car kicked me out, like, 5 miles from my office!
Apple "Genius": (dismissive) Oh, well, obviously you weren't sitting in it right. Bye.
 

InuNacho

macrumors 68000
Apr 24, 2008
1,896
1,112
In that one place
It's coming.
Tell me when it comes to rural parts of this country without cell reception.
Tell me when it can come to countries In Eurasia or South America where you just drive in lane-less organized chaos.
Tell me when they can drive through a foot of snow pounding the East Coast.
Tell me when it can get to my home because both Apple Maps and Google Maps do not register my home's inlet.
Tell me when it can avoid that massive basketball sized pothole on a rainy night.
Tell me when the lower income users can use this service you proclaim when I can buy a cheap 90s van for $3k.
Tell me when the first recall is that decommissions the entire fleet.
Tell me when it can register that there is something delicate or unusual in the bed of a pickup truck and modify its driving accordingly.
 
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mollyc

macrumors 603
Aug 18, 2016
5,728
32,294
I am sure this day will come, but never in my lifetime. I can't imagine sending my children off to their sports practices in a self driving car without me around.
 

Madhatter32

macrumors 65816
Apr 17, 2020
1,176
2,368
Tell me when it comes to rural parts of this country without cell reception.
Tell me when it can come to countries In Eurasia or South America where you just drive in lane-less organized chaos.
Tell me when they can drive through a foot of snow pounding the East Coast.
Tell me when it can get to my home because both Apple Maps and Google Maps do not register my home's inlet.
Tell me when it can avoid that massive basketball sized pothole on a rainy night.
Tell me when the lower income users can use this service you proclaim when I can buy a cheap 90s van for $3k.
Tell me when the first recall is that decommissions the entire fleet.
Tell me when it can register that there is something delicate or unusual in the bed of a pickup truck and modify its driving accordingly.
I knew that someone in this thread would begin to speak about reality and truth. No fun.
 
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voy@ger

macrumors newbie
Nov 20, 2021
27
16
Haarlem, Netherlands
What thread starter is referring to, is the services provider concept. Haven't we contracted and trusted practically everything to a provider. Energy use, information, communicating, entertainment, even shopping for stuff and ordering in meals, you name it. Going from A to B by some sort of transport mode hasn't changed that much though. It is still primarily based on car ownership, and has therefore been monopolized by the car industry.

Since the car is about to shed its ICE-related engineering, maintenance and servicing, it will basically become a household's largest electric appliance. A complete service contract for personal mobility that includes "power on and sit back" (autonomous) may indeed replace car ownership.
 
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bushman4

macrumors 68040
Mar 22, 2011
3,640
1,537
Apple Car is years off. Legislation , insurance Companies stipulations etc still have to be worked out
The other day a Tesla car in full autonomous mode hit and killed a person for the first time. Is the manufacturer liable or the person sitting in the car??? Lot of questions to be answered
 

Mr_Brightside_@

macrumors 68040
Sep 23, 2005
3,640
1,854
Toronto
I’ve been doing a lot of research into the concept of Public transport. Have you heard of it? It seems super promising if it comes into fruition, and would really help remove the need for personal vehicles. There’s also this ancient tech I’ve been hearing whispers of that may be called bicycles that would really seem to help with getting you quickly and conveniently most anywhere in your city. I’m going to keep my ear to the ground for developments on that front, also super promising.
 

Average Pro

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Jul 16, 2013
440
185
Cali
Apple Car is years off. Legislation , insurance Companies stipulations etc still have to be worked out
The other day a Tesla car in full autonomous mode hit and killed a person for the first time. Is the manufacturer liable or the person sitting in the car??? Lot of questions to be answered
I agree, 5 years from now.

As for the Tesla reference, the car was not in full autonomous mode. It was in partially automated mode. In addition, the police said they believe nobody had been behind the wheel, but they have not finished their investigation.

So let's play this scenario out. If two autonomous cars crash into each other (1) neither passenger owns or operates the vehicle so no liability against either. (2) an investigation ensues and conclusion reached. (3) injured individuals pursue liability against the company that provided the service. (4) reduction in court cases, judges, police, transcriber, courthouse heating/AC/lights, etc.

By the way, for plane flights (commercial), the pilot controls the plane on the ground (steering) and at take off. The computer flies and lands the plane.
 

satcomer

macrumors G3
Feb 19, 2008
8,742
1,845
The Finger Lakes Region
Modern electric cars fail when at least in the US CCS seems to hate cold States! So if Apple is ever going to compete with Tesla and number of charging stations they will need!
 
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ApfelKuchen

macrumors 601
Aug 28, 2012
4,334
3,006
Between the coasts
Then there's the question of to what degree the success of one product can affect a long-entrenched industry.

Without mentioning pros/cons, consider the political difficulty (near-impossibility) of going from a for-profit healthcare industry to a non-profit model.

The auto industry as a whole will move with the times. Some manufacturers and service providers will push the transportation-as-service model, others will continue to push individual ownership. The entrenched players in the current automotive economy will push for the status-quo (personal ownership). "Freedom" in the US has a tendency to win out over considerations like "more economical," "more environmentally friendly," etc. The future is likely to be a mixed bag, rather than a wholesale shift to a new transportation model.
 

wonderings

macrumors 6502
Nov 19, 2021
471
415
Tell me when it comes to rural parts of this country without cell reception.
Tell me when it can come to countries In Eurasia or South America where you just drive in lane-less organized chaos.
Tell me when they can drive through a foot of snow pounding the East Coast.
Tell me when it can get to my home because both Apple Maps and Google Maps do not register my home's inlet.
Tell me when it can avoid that massive basketball sized pothole on a rainy night.
Tell me when the lower income users can use this service you proclaim when I can buy a cheap 90s van for $3k.
Tell me when the first recall is that decommissions the entire fleet.
Tell me when it can register that there is something delicate or unusual in the bed of a pickup truck and modify its driving accordingly.

-Why would Apple or any car manufacturer need to make sure it runs in rural parts of the country or world where there is no cell reception?
-Why would it need to be in Eurasia or South America where they drive a little more adventurously?
-Snow I wonder about, my Subaru Outback has some minor self driving options, well more like lane assist. When it cannot see the lines on the road it disables. No clue how any self driving car could handle a snow covered street where markings are not clear
- Getting to your home is probably not on their list of priorities for making self driving cars
- Another good question when it comes to road hazards, can't imagine it would somehow be able to scan and safely avoid any serious pot hole
- When has Apple made anything for lower incoming users? Leather sleeves for an Apple tracker costs $200+. Apple is a premium brand and are not really making products to help lower incoming people rise up
- I would imagine it would go somewhat similar to what Tesla does with over the air updates. There are strict guidelines for vehicles, Apple can't just make a car and throw it on the road and then wait for the glitches to show themselves.
- Apple is making a pickup truck now? If they were I would say it could be a pretty simple thing to enter in a mode for delicate goods onboard to soften suspension, how it corners, etc.

All this to be said, I don't think Apple is anywhere near close to coming out with a car. It would be a massive undertaking just on getting service shops up all over the countries they would be sold.
 
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Average Pro

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Jul 16, 2013
440
185
Cali
Then there's the question of to what degree the success of one product can affect a long-entrenched industry.

Without mentioning pros/cons, consider the political difficulty (near-impossibility) of going from a for-profit healthcare industry to a non-profit model.

The auto industry as a whole will move with the times. Some manufacturers and service providers will push the transportation-as-service model, others will continue to push individual ownership. The entrenched players in the current automotive economy will push for the status-quo (personal ownership). "Freedom" in the US has a tendency to win out over considerations like "more economical," "more environmentally friendly," etc. The future is likely to be a mixed bag, rather than a wholesale shift to a new transportation model.
Lots of valid good points.
Ah freedom, and how auto manufacturers (as well as other US industries) enjoy invoking that word as a sign of your patriotism to the country or something you will lose if you don't own item X (in this case a vehicle). I'm not advocating against personal ownership, but what's the point when the moment you get behind the wheel of your vehicle a program takes over and drives your car from point A to B. An automated car is like having a chauffeur. Except you don't have to pay the chauffeur's salary or maintenance of the vehicle.
Some of the professions I see taking longer to transition are construction workers or people who carry a lot of tools and supplies to perform their job. I'm sure there are many other I cannot think of at this time.
 
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ApfelKuchen

macrumors 601
Aug 28, 2012
4,334
3,006
Between the coasts
Lots of valid good points.
Ah freedom, and how auto manufacturers (as well as other US industries) enjoy invoking that word as a sign of your patriotism to the country or something you will lose if you don't own item X (in this case a vehicle). I'm not advocating against personal ownership, but what's the point when the moment you get behind the wheel of your vehicle a program takes over and drives your car from point A to B. An automated car is like having a chauffeur. Except you don't have to pay the chauffeur's salary or maintenance of the vehicle.
Some of the professions I see taking longer to transition are construction workers or people who carry a lot of tools and supplies to perform their job. I'm sure there are many other I cannot think of at this time.
At my age, I'm looking forward to a future that protects the rest of humanity from my (eventually) declining physical reflexes and mental acuity. By all means, put a computer behind my wheel!

However, freedom is only part of the equation. Mass transit, taxi/limo/shared ride, package/mail delivery (with or without human drivers) depend on population density for efficiency. Looking back over the past century, electrical and phone service would not have been extended into some rural areas without a combination of subsidies and government mandates. Rural cable TV and internet availability has been a major problem, as there has been less public will to subsidize/mandate universal availability of those services. And rural mass transit? Forget about it (well, other than a route that connects a series of towns along a highway/rail line, and those in between who live close to that highway/rail line).

Overall, the vehicle-as-service model is similar to other aspects of the urban/rural divide - your worldview is deeply colored by local population density. Whether it's a horse or an Apple Car hardly matters; in the city or suburbs vehicle ownership may be more a matter of abstract "freedom" than actual necessity, but out in the wider, more open spaces such freedom can be a matter of life or death. Sure, advertisements by US carmakers tend to play on patriotic themes, but it's more a matter of selling "Buy American" than promoting the independence that comes from owning your own vehicle. The latter selling point has been hammered home for over a century, long before Asian brands "invaded" the US market. Non-US carmakers sell the freedom without the patriotism.

I'm reminded of what happened to street railways (trolleys) here in the US. They did a fine job of connecting urban/suburban residents to shopping and employment, but the auto industry saw the opportunity to replace those electric vehicles with good old, internal combustion buses. Was transportation improved? No. Even today, most bus routes in my area simply duplicate the trolley routes laid down over 100 years ago. It was all about one industry finding a way to elbow out another.

I happen to live in an area where the shared ride model can work for me. It can be more economical than car ownership, even today, when a human driver has to be paid (and I also have very viable mass transit options). At those times that I book an Uber or Lyft there's usually less than a five-minute wait, with no need to pre-plan. However, I've also lived in towns where those living on the outskirts would probably have to pre-book hours in advance in order to have a driver appear at their door at the desired time - population density is just too low, the distances between dwellings much too great. Even if there's no driver behind the wheel, it'd be uneconomic to operate an on-demand personal transportation service.

So, if anything, if the transportation-as-service model succeeds in the cities and suburbs, the rift between urban and rural will expand - the cost of owning privately-owned vehicles will rise (as economies of scale will drop), making it even more burdensome to live out-of-town. The bigger question is, as always, what will society do about the latest crop of displaced workers?
 
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