Buying my final Macbook Pro (16") - Intel refresh likely?

[laz232]

Currently on a 2018 MBP15 - using for work (macOS and Windows 10 in a VM for engineering SW).

Prefer macOS for general use - with the ARM transition, I will probably have to leave Apple due to Win10 support under ARM (no the 7-20kUSD engineering SW is not getting recompiled!).

There are some tax advantages to buying a replacement by end of year, but it's nevertheless a high price - is there a likely refresh of the Intel CPU in the MBP16. I know it's asking the crystal ball - just wondering what the latest word (/feeling) on the street is due to the financial outlay...

 

[StumpyBloke]

Waiting for the 2020 MBP

Might as well start this one. 2020 is surely the year of the redesign.

forums.macrumors.com

 

[Fishrrman]

You might wait to see if there are any Black Friday sales -- I would expect to see some.

 

[laz232]

You might wait to see if there are any Black Friday sales -- I would expect to see some.

Black Friday is not a big occasion in my country - and I would much rather wait in case there is a likelihood of a CPU refresh as this will probably by my last Mac .

 

[LinkRS]

Black Friday is not a big occasion in my country - and I would much rather wait in case there is a likelihood of a CPU refresh as this will probably by my last Mac .

Sorry laz232, nobody here really knows if there is a processor refresh coming. Personally I don't think there will be one. Apple has surprised me before, but Intel hasn't released a new CPU that would be an upgrade form the current 16", as the new 10th gen (Ice Lake) in the smaller MBPs are lower wattage than what is used in the larger models. As it is already mid October, and the holiday season fast approaching, the release window is closing. Technically Apple did refresh the 16" this past June, with a new GPU option ($800 upgrade), so they may not feel the need to do it again. Others have pointed out that this model is not sold in high numbers, so there may be even less motivation for Apple to update it. Intel has released the Comet Lake-H series, but the top-end of that line can go up to 65-watts, so either Apple would have to limit its performance, or do a another new cooling system. The follow on, and the actual 10nm (Intel calls it 11th Gen, vices the MBPs 9th Gen) Tiger Lake, is not currently offered in the 45-watt variety used by 16" MacBook Pros.

Come Lake-H is only minor improvements over the existing Coffee Lake-H in the current MBP, and those improvements are largely mitigated by needing more power. Tiger Lake would be an improvement, if Intel were to offer them in the 45-watt variety (see here: https://www.macrumors.com/2020/09/02/intel-announces-tiger-lake-chips/). Plus with AppleSI on the horizon.....

Good luck!

Rich S.

 

[laz232]

Sorry laz232, nobody here really knows if there is a processor refresh coming. Personally I don't think there will be one. Apple has surprised me before, but Intel hasn't released a new CPU that would be an upgrade form the current 16", as the new 10th gen (Ice Lake) in the smaller MBPs are lower wattage than what is used in the larger models. As it is already mid October, and the holiday season fast approaching, the release window is closing. Technically Apple did refresh the 16" this past June, with a new GPU option ($800 upgrade), so they may not feel the need to do it again. Others have pointed out that this model is not sold in high numbers, so there may be even less motivation for Apple to update it. Intel has released the Comet Lake-H series, but the top-end of that line can go up to 65-watts, so either Apple would have to limit its performance, or do a another new cooling system. The follow on, and the actual 10nm (Intel calls it 11th Gen, vices the MBPs 9th Gen) Tiger Lake, is not currently offered in the 45-watt variety used by 16" MacBook Pros.

Come Lake-H is only minor improvements over the existing Coffee Lake-H in the current MBP, and those improvements are largely mitigated by needing more power. Tiger Lake would be an improvement, if Intel were to offer them in the 45-watt variety (see here: https://www.macrumors.com/2020/09/02/intel-announces-tiger-lake-chips/). Plus with AppleSI on the horizon.....

Good luck!

Rich S.

Thanks for the detailed breakdown - the CPU naming scheme has become ridiculous (coming from the 386/486 days when we only had to worry about DX versus SX) - I didn't realise that the newest Gen CPUs from Intel were not available in the 45W TDP range.
I know that Apple has been rather slow in adopting - or hopped over a CPU gen completely - so I guess that you're right in that it's unlikely to be refreshed with the completion of the Apple silicon transition in the coming 18 months...

 

[venom600]

Intel hasn't released a new CPU that would be an upgrade form the current 16", as the new 10th gen (Ice Lake) in the smaller MBPs are lower wattage than what is used in the larger models.

That is not true. The 10th gen H series Intel chips were released over six months ago, before the release of the 5600M option. Everyone else is using them. The Core i9-10980HK, i7-10875H, and i7-10850H would be appropriate for a 16" update, and all are 45W. Only Apple is still using the 9th gen on a flagship product. I suspect if they were going to go to 10th gen they would have then. The only reason to wait till now is for potential 6000 series "big Navi" graphics, but at this point I doubt that will come.

 

[LinkRS]

That is not true. The 10th gen H series Intel chips were released over six months ago, before the release of the 5600M option. Everyone else is using them. The Core i9-10980HK, i7-10875H, and i7-10850H would be appropriate for a 16" update, and all are 45W. Only Apple is still using the 9th gen on a flagship product. I suspect if they were going to go to 10th gen they would have then. The only reason to wait till now is for potential 6000 series "big Navi" graphics, but at this point I doubt that will come.

The 10th Gen H series you refer to, are not Ice Lake, but Comet Lake-H CPUs. Meaning that they are still using an enhanced version of the Skylake architecture, vs the new one in Sunny Cove architecture found in Ice Lake. Meaning the performance difference between the older Coffee Lake 9th gen and the Comet Lake 10th gen is not much, clock for clock. The Core i9-10980HK would not be suitable for a MacBook Pro, as it is a 45-watt chip that can expand to 65-watts, meaning too hot for the current MacBook Pro chassis. If you think current 16" MBPs get hot, this would be a scorcher. Technically the i7-10875H and i7-108750H could "fit," but I think that would make the upgrade look lopsided. Going from base of i7 that is upgradeable to two i9 options, to just i7 options would not market well. Plus, I would suspect that unless the cooling capability of the 16" MBP chassis was improved, the Comet Lake-H CPUs probably wouldn't be any faster than the 9th gen options. I do think that there would be a nice upgradeable options with Tiger Lake, but since Apple is expected to go all out with AppleSI, I don't think they would spend any time engineering a new system for these :-(.

For those inclined, see here for more tech information : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_CPU_microarchitectures

Rich S.