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nbs2 said:
The posts above yours are what what I was asking about. People generally believe that one conference or another is dominant at any given point in time (for example, the NFC through the 1980s/90s).

I get what you are saying now. Look at it this way. Last year the Eagles were coming from what many called a "very weak NFC". They had to face the Pats who were the defending champs and probably a better team. The Eagles didn't win, but they definitely made a game out of it and even covered the speed. The Seahawks are just as dominate in the NFC as the Eagles were last year. I don't think the Steelers are any better than the Pats of last year (maybe even a little worse IMO). I don't see what this won't be just as good of a game as last year. I'm very excited for it.
 
going around asking everybody has garnered the consensus that the winning team will win by 1, 2, or 3 points and the thought of either team winning by two touchdowns, especially in the light of recent superbowl history, and among two evenly matched teams, is a crazy thing, and downright suicide with $250 dollars

i have come to my senses...i have never won a 25 to 1 bet in my life...i don't even know if i ever won a 10 to 1 on a scratcher

everybody seems to be expecting a close game and just over half of who i talked to are rooting for the steelers, but ironically most of them don't think the steelers will win...and the steelers "fans" here in california are doing it because the seahawks are #1 seed and in the same division as the 49ers and were in the same division as the raiders...so no love for the seahawks here in northern california...unless they are seattle transplants or something ;)
 
Applespider said:
I won a 200-1 football bet once... but it was only £5 I had riding on it :eek:

First TD in Super Bowl 34 to be scored by Ty Law... :D I was leaping around the bar like a madwoman!

wow. that must have been a great payoff...anyway congrats, but i must ask, were you totally drunk to put money on a 200-1 bet? ;)

i don't do gambling, but the payoff on the steelers winning by 14 is 25 to 1 but does that mean the odds of that happening are 25 to 1 because if that was the case the house would break even over time?

maybe the odds of the steelers winning by 14 when they are only 4 point favorites is 30 to 1 or something

what do you think the chance of the steelers winning by 3 touchdowns, 4 touchdowns, or even 5 touchdowns?...i think if i put $250 on the steelers winning by 5 touchdowns, i may get a payoff that could buy me a fleet of new trucks since we are talking about a small 4 point spread

maybe i could call the $250 dollars a charitable donation...he he...and write it off

let's say you put 1000 quid on ty law, then you would probably not have to work for the rest of your life at this point...but then again i have never heard of people doing such a crazy thing but i did know this man who bought 10,000 lotto tickets in northern california (he could afford it...and easily btw) and he won over 10 million dollars and was one of the first winners in the california lottery...that blew me away since he lived just miles from me at school in a fairly small city

and a few years later when i moved to where i am now, one lady in a city of a few thousand won over a million dollars but that's the only time i ever heard of a big winner since then in my direct vicinity since the lottery started in the 80s

so that's how rare it is for a townie to win the big one since statistically, it would almost always be someone from a different city winning the big one, especially if you come from a very small town

anyway, the local lady, who many knew due to the small size of the town, must have had her privacy destroyed...somehow, i have lived here 37 of my 42 years and i still cannot recall having seen her growing up but if i saw her today, maybe it's the old lady i say hi to when i buy donuts, or the old lady who parks in front of my house to take piano lessons, or maybe she is the old lady who works at the animal shelter benefit store...he he...now i am very curious

when a person is worth a million because they own real estate or businesses, you don't see hoards of friends, family, and non profit organizations hitting you hard for money, but if you win a million dollars and your face is in every local tv news broadcast and newspaper for two weeks, then the whole world descends upon you...very strange

if i won the big one and won a million or millions, i would want to be fairly anonymous in a large city like los angleles where i can be unrecognized virtually everywhere i go

with a million, if that's what i had after taxes, i would do some smalll improvements on my house, pay off grad school debts, pay off some medical debts, invest 100 grand, give some to family and friends, and make a very large donation to breast cancer research...one lady i know who was worth 1.5 million only had a upper middle class niece who she gave clothes, antiques, and a grand piano to and gave the lionshare of the money to cancer research (heck while i am at it, if i had 2 million, i would donate half of it, if i had 3 million i would donate 60% percent of it, and if i had ten million, i would donate 90% percent of it, and if i was bill gates, i would donate 99% percent of it as he has claimed he would do because you can't take it with you and i commend bill gates and his wife for their donations to many causes...he he...even if some say it's just a tax write off for his great wealth or for microsoft in some indirect way)

well, rant over and again, congrats on ty law and i think you should drop him a letter soon
 
jefhatfield said:
wow. that must have been a great payoff...anyway congrats, but i must ask, were you totally drunk to put money on a 200-1 bet? ;)

No... I usually stick a couple of bets on the SuperBowl or NFL season every year - probably about £20 at the start of the season (tho I missed this year) and £20 on the SuperBowl but rather than put it all on a single bet, I play around with it and put 4 £5 bets on. A couple are sensible - division winners, or Superbowl winner. And a couple are stupid - the over/under on safeties for the season - basically, anything with ridiculously high odds. That particular one, I put £5 on it being Torry Holt to score the first TD at 4-1 and £5 on a Patriot to score it. Since the Pats were massively defensive, then I figured on a defensive guy and Ty Law was the only name I recognised.

I'd never have put a grand on it. I only gamble what I don't mind losing ;)
 
Applespider said:
No... I usually stick a couple of bets on the SuperBowl or NFL season every year - probably about £20 at the start of the season (tho I missed this year) and £20 on the SuperBowl but rather than put it all on a single bet, I play around with it and put 4 £5 bets on. A couple are sensible - division winners, or Superbowl winner. And a couple are stupid - the over/under on safeties for the season - basically, anything with ridiculously high odds. That particular one, I put £5 on it being Torry Holt to score the first TD at 4-1 and £5 on a Patriot to score it. Since the Pats were massively defensive, then I figured on a defensive guy and Ty Law was the only name I recognised.

I'd never have put a grand on it. I only gamble what I don't mind losing ;)

well that's a good way to do it...diversify...that sounds like investing but investing, as told to me on an interview i had with a brokerage firm, is gambling and nothing more and nothing less

what would you think the chances of me winning a bet saying that shaun alexander, this year's nfl mvp, will get stopped at less than 30 yards?

but whether seattle wins or loses, alexander will probably have a better game than anyone on his team and likely a better game than anyone on the other team, win or lose

so it's a crazy thing to bet on but that's what i am checking out right now

or what if i bet that both quarterbacks will have sub-200 yard passing days on superbowl sunday?

i think i will scour the internet and make pretend bets and see if i come out ahead, behind, or even :)
 
i'm a lifelong steelers fan, and i do expect them to win, but 14 points is a longshot.

the steeler (i.e. bill cowher) gameplan is to take the lead and hold it. it's at that point that the steelers start playing conservatively, keep it on the ground and eat up the clock. they like to win close games.

the only way they'll win by two touchdowns or more is if the seahawks make some mistakes in trying to catch up, for example by making turnovers or failing to convert 4th downs.

if you think the seahawks are the kind of team to fall apart in the last, say, third of the game when they're behind, then take the bet. if the seahawks are the kind of team that can maintain their composure in tough situations, then they'll keep it close.
 
Could anyone not recognise Troy Polamalu - in person with that hair or with the name? I love that cover of SI with him just standing there, hair down.

I'd remember the name Lofa Tatupu too... both guys who will make watching defense on either team entertaining!
 
quigleybc said:
I am a die hard Steelers fan, so I may come off a little biased, but I've been watching them all year, and this is their year...


I would take the bet, they will win by around 17 points...

This is my opinion, and I'll stand by it..

LET"S GO BURGH!!!

well if you really believe it, you can probably go with 13 points beyond the betting line, lay down maybe $100, and garner five grand or ten grand if you win

if i buy five scratchers and the maximum winner is $500 dollars, i am ok with that...technically i know if i buy fifty scratchers, i will increase my chances tenfold in winning that $500 dollars but it's not a bet i am willing to take...at a certain point, you are being foolish

a huge 17 point win for the steelers, especially since they are going against a #1 seed, is foolhardy to bet with anything substantially big, and would be as likely as someone breaking kobe bryant's recent 81 point game...but the thought of the payback from vegas or a legitimate internet gambling site or office gambling pool is very attractive

now if your steelers were going against my 49ers, then i would say yes, the steelers could very well win by 17 points, or even 21 points

but since people bet on everything including the opening coin toss, you can be assured there is a lot of money at the end of this superbowl's rainbow for someone who bets, and wins, on something totally unprecedented...and i don't think a wildcard #6 seed has ever beaten a #1 seed by 17 points in any superbowl...heck, i think only the raiders way back in the day were the only #5 or #6 seed to go all the way and win the superbowl
 
Since this post season saw me have my most dismal record in HISTORY, don't believe one freaking word I say.
Steelers by 10.
Don't make the bet.
But the PAYOFF...
MAKE the bet!
Hope I cleared that up. :)
 
jefhatfield said:
i don't think a wildcard #6 seed has ever beaten a #1 seed by 17 points in any superbowl
you'd be right. the steelers are the first #6 seed to even make it to the superbowl.
 
zimv20 said:
you'd be right. the steelers are the first #6 seed to even make it to the superbowl.

ironically the seahawks were a #5 or #6 seed and made it all the way to the conference championships once and it was the best run seattle has ever had in a cinderella sort of way

if this is jerome's last game as a steeler, what a way to win, and with a #6 seed team, too...now that would be a way to ride into the sunset

the only better scenario i could have imagined was the colts to win all 16 games this season, win in the playoffs, and win the superbowl and have the first perfect season in decades and that would have launched manning into the list of great all time quarterbacks...even if he never won another game

now it's possible manning will go downhill from here (which i highly doubt though) and never win the superbowl or put up great "steve young" type numbers for qb rating...back some years ago, i thought randall cunningham would become as great as any qb has ever been...same with kurt warner
 
jefhatfield said:
if this is jerome's last game as a steeler, what a way to win, and with a #6 seed team, too...now that would be a way to ride into the sunset
i think there is something to the bettis "story". i believe he's going to play like a man possessed. i also expect the team to follow his lead.

now it's possible manning will go downhill from here (which i highly doubt though) and never win the superbowl or put up great "steve young" type numbers for qb rating
yeah, i don't know. as great as a QB marino was, he went to superbowl only once. there's just so much circumstance, it's not up to a single player.

had you asked me a few weeks ago, i would have said manning would end up winning a couple superbowls. then i watched him fall apart when playing the steelers. sure, it's just one game, but man did he look rattled. and i'm not sure i saw the kind of leadership qualities he should be displaying at this point in his career.

i don't mean to bash manning, i actually kind of like him, but after this post-season, i am starting to wonder about him.
 
Definitely crossed my mind when the Steelers got the ball back with about 6 minutes to go...all they had to do was punch it in the end zone, and the bet would have been golden!

But it certainly sounds like you weren't going to take the bet...smart move!
 
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