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Discussion in 'iPhone' started by Edwardz, Jan 29, 2008.
Can you see Apple bringing out SDK and 3G iPhone end of Feruary together at some special event?
It's my understanding that AT&T doesn't have sufficient 3G coverage in the US to do a serious rollout of a 3G iPhone...yet. I mean, they could do it, but so few people would benefit from it that it would be prohibitive to releasing a new hardware revision of a phone that has a mere 0.6% of the cell phone market less than a year after its release.
I can see releasing a new iPhone with a capacity bump to 16 GB, but not a 3G iPhone for US customers.
they might announce it (highly doubt it), but it wont be for sale ... remember, if would have to go through the FCC first, which is a public thing...
I don't really see this as being a valid argument.. 3g is backwards compatible ... it if you don't have coverage, it will simply go back to EDGE or GRPS...
Point taken, but have the chipsets evolved to the point in which they are smaller and consume less power so that including them to future proof the iPhone wouldn't cripple it? Even with 3G disabled, Anand's analysis of battery life on the Samsung BlackJack showed that it drained power quickly even with 3G turned off. Granted, different devices and all that, but the chip was big and sucked down the power.
Thats why the iphone wasn't 3g to begin with ... Jobs didn't want to sacrifice battery life for it... and he said that he'll bring out a 3g version when power consumption comes down ...
There's a new 3g chip that got release not too long ago that requires less power and people think that that is what chip apple is going to be using.
AT&T did say that a 3G iPhone would be released in 2008 so that may well be true, but I gotta say, I just don't see Apple releasing a major hardware revision to a product less than a year after release, capacity bump notwithstanding.
no way.... Apple would announce the next iPhone months before it would come out.
No. I think Apple will handle one thing at a time. The SDK first and my guess is that the next iPhone will be announced in the summer and be released at the end of 2008 or early 2009. This timeline would give Apple time to see how people respond to the SDK and make adjustments to the next iPhone accordingly.
I dunno...don't you think that it would completely cannibalize sales of the current generation? There might be leaks, yes, but I don't see Steve Jobs or anyone else from Apple officially saying "The iPhone 2 will be out in six months." It doesn't make good business sense. Apple could do it with the original announcement because it was an unreleased product, but for a new revision? I just can't see them doing that.
Agreed. My guess is they announce it at the end of February along with the SDK. They will use the SDK to keep hyping and selling the current iPhone, while the next gen model will go through the FCC process (6 weeks or so).
You guys are all crazy....everyone has 18 months on their contract! Now when the iphone has been out in the US for a year and a half...then MAYBE just maybe they might release the new one..but doing it in less than a year in?
pfffft No chance
I've heard this arguement often on the boards, and while there is some merit to it, it doesn't entirely make sense. Apple is looking to grow their consumer/user base not recycle those they have already gained. If Jobs sees projections telling him that sales will begin to taper on the current Iphone by April then it is in his best interest to jumpstart the market with a refreshed or new product.
Apple has no reason to wait 18 months so that the early adopters can get out of their contracts for the newest product. Generally speaking, marketers aren't as worried about reaching the "outliers." Those are the top 10% and bottom 10%. Those who are early adopters and those considered as having no interest in buying. It is the bulk of the market, and in the case of the Iphone the bulk of the market is still a "potential" customer. They want a much bigger piece of the pie!
Now speculate away as to whether or not the market is slowing for the current Iphone, but don't be believe that Steve Jobs is worried about catering to contracts or early adopters. He's worried about hitting 10 million and shareholders.
That makes great business sense. Say if Jobs made some sort of announcement today saying the iPhone 2 would be available in June. The media and everyone will follow it closely during the period of now from June. That will build a lot of peoples anticipation to get it. Then when it finally comes out, the demand for it will be a lot more than say if he said it will be released in 2 weeks.
I doubt the iPhone will be out this summer now. I say next year we will see iPhone 2. All the peoples contracts that bought early will be expiring then.
Yup, that's what I'm starting to think, too. AT&T leaked that there would be a 3G iPhone in 2008, but Apple might even go as far to release a 3G iPhone overseas first since there's better market penetration there for 3G technology. Due to slow European sales and a desire to break into the Asian market, maybe they'll lead with their best foot forward over there.
On the other hand, Apple's never done anything like that before, so that's the speculation of an outsider only. Of course, Apple is notoriously unpredictable with product releases. I'm staking a claim that we'll see a capacity bump in 2008, but beyond that I dunno.
You may be right about the timing.
But, contracts don't really matter. If the new iPhone came out today, current iPhone owners would certainly be allowed to buy it and extend their contract.
Wi-Fi is the future for the iPod. I don't think they see 3g as a priority. When it will have no detrimental effect on performance, they may add it, but I would guess to see higher capacity iPhones first.
With the SDK coming out they won't want to be changing anything in the near future.
I'd say that 802.11 wifi support will just be one facet of the future for the iPhone/iPod. Wi-MAX support at some point? Maybe. Apple's not exactly a company I can see having a long-term partnership with another company like they do with the carriers--beyond, of course, what has already been negotiated and agreed upon. They not only depend on them for subscribers, but they are at the mercy of someone else for half their product's capabilities.
That being said, once they can make sure that their phone has Internet access anywhere either via wifi, Wi-MAX, or even whatever becomes of the spectrum auction right now (or Verizon's forthcoming open network, too), I'll bet they transition the iPhone to a VOIP device so that they don't have to be at the mercy of carriers, just software developers.
Of course, that's my long-term prediction, and nothing else. That's what I'd do if I were in Jobs' place, at least.
Myth. They could time things to start selling the day they got approval.
We don't usually see any FCC info until something is approved. Just as with the iPhone, where it was submitted in March but no one knew about it until the approval ten weeks later in May.
As for 3G, Apple didn't include it because it would've raise the cost too much at the time, plus they figured they could get by with EDGE for a while.
We didn't know about...the iPhone? Or the FCC approval process?
I strictly remember jobs saying the 3g wasn't in the current iphone because of power consumption... and i think it was in the UK iphone release... it wouldn't raise the cost that much... there are plenty of phones that are 3g that are cheap
No current generation of iPhone in any country has a 3G chip in it. They're all the same hardware.
One of the speculations by analysts regarding slow international adoption has been the missing 3G support since it's so much more widespread overseas than it is here in the US.
In India, rumors going around that RCOM (Reliance) which is a treaditional CDMA provider is jumpstarting GSM sometime in the next 6 months or so; RCOM may have struck deal with Apple to sell iPhone exclusively in India by which time (say in 6 months) 3G regulatory issues related to spectrum allocation in India would have been resolved. This would enable Reliance and Apple to launch their respective services & products in India.
you totally missed my point...
I should have said, "I remember jobs saying that during the UK iphone release"...
I know that no iphone has 3g in it...
Except this isn't an ipod or something that can languish for 18 months. The cellular market moves VERY fast and Apple will need to update once a year to keep ahead of competition. HTC doesn't design one new phone every 18 months, they release newer versions of phones every 9 months or so, and they hit AT&T, Sprint, etc every year or so. Look at the 8125-->8525-->8925 evolution. All about a year apart, and prior to the iPhone were probably AT&T's most expensive, high end phone options.
If Apple seriously wants to compete, they need to update yearly. There are too many competitors releasing new phones every 6-12 months to wait 18 months.
And if you think Apple has such a great foothold and nothing can trump the fantastical wonderful iPhone, look at the history of Palm and the Treo line. Palm waited way too long to make serious updates and now they are scrambling for marketshare. And cell phones and PDAs were Palm's ONLY business. It's not a market for slow updates.
FCC approval must be in hand before they can sell it, so it probably would hit about a month beforehand. There's no way they'd manufacture, announce, and prep for a release without FCC approval in hand. They cut it close enough by getting the approvals in May for a June release. The reason they pre-announce is that they need get FCC approval to sell, and FCC approvals are public, so Macrumors, Engadget, Gizmodo would be all over a new iphone filing before the copier paper even cooled.
Sure, everyone knew that a phone was coming months before Jobs announced it. There were even websites devoted to fans' depictions of what they thought it would look like.
No one knew about that until it was approved. And even then, all pictures and manuals were kept secret.
So Jobs could've not shown anything, the approval could've gone through, and all anyone would've known at the time was that there really was an Apple phone (no surprise)... and that it wasn't 3G.
Jobs preannounced simply to build hype and let people get out of their contracts.
Not the way it has to work. By the time you hand in the paperwork, you pretty much know if it'll be approved or not... just a matter of waiting.
And it would have some truth. But not the whole truth. That's the way he works.