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And if he does not sell his shares during the buy-back he will own a larger percentage of the company and be an even bigger thorn in the side of Apple Management. Even as the largest individual shareholder, in order to get Apple to do his bidding Icahn would have to force Cook out or replace the board. Something the rest of Apple shareholders are unlikely to support.

THIS is what I suspect is what's going on here. That letter is directly aimed at Tim Cook, not the company itself. He's giving him an ultimatum in saying " Either do this, or ELSE ".

Icahn may not be likable of a fellow, but when he talks, he's got something important to say.

Someone on this thread said that Tim should tell him off but it appears he doesn't have the balls to do it in public. In fact, he can't since it's not good business.

Of course, I do remember the wall street incident where he told off a Republican ( if I recall ) shareholder months ago relating to environmental issues and focusing on the quality of Apple's future. But was Carl in that same room that day?

It seems there's a difference in cussing out a room filled with unknown shareholders and a world famous shareholder. And I believe, Carl probably has influence in pressuring the company to force Tim to step down or leave. And when or if that happens, a new CEO will be propped up by then.

Again, the letter is a veiled threat to Tim, IMO.
 
In other words, Icahn is saying he has waited long enough to get his profits from his large position in Apple stock and "I WANT MY PROFITS NOW!!!!"

No, I don't think so.

Icahn is Long Apple and getting dividends along the way.
 
This is something I've said many times. The correct valuation is what the market says it is at any particular moment. As for the future, it's a matter of educated guesswork. Icahn is apparently predicting growing earnings, a higher multiple, and of course is advocating for more stock being taken off the table. So yes, it is possible for AAPL to double if all these things happened.

Sure it's possible. It's improbable, and I do believe if it doubles it would be the time to extricate yourself from the situation immediately if not sooner. I think it it went to 200 it would pop and hit 180 pretty quickly, then 160, 150 and even 140. But then, I'm really just speculating.

I think, and I could be wrong, but the way I interpreted his wording was the APPL is undervalued NOW. Not as a speculative future-value, but currently, he purports to believe (and whether or not he believes this is questionable) that it ought to be some (1.x +) multiple of what it is today, not tomorrow.
 
Please explain how Icahn's proposal helps the living poop out of Apple's shareholders.

It helps because it wakes up the zombies out there, so that they can realize what a great value AAPL stock is.

Very important, and finally someone sees it as it is and makes people listen.

I don't get how people on this Apple site are against someone pointing out that the shares are undervalued. I guess most people posting have no stock investments and perhaps that is the reason, but doesn't anyone appreciate hearing the truth on AAPL stock?

Get out there and purchase some calls - it's the easiest money you'll ever make!

Forget today's 300 point crash - it's meaningless (explain Alcoa today!)
Costco and Walmart did good I think. Earnings should be good for US stocks. Forget the PIGS in Europe. Oil down is great news for America. Apple is now primed for a jump, but hopefully this 300 point drop was just a crazy market today.
 
If you have no desire to address your own ignorance or back up your statements with anything more than trite parasite comparisons then it's not worth engaging in a discussion. *shrug*. Oh well.

There are decades worth of proof behind him; why do I need more. He's like a broken record and transparent in his motivations; the transparency of his actions if the only good thing about him...

If Buffet said that, maybe I'd listen more; but Icahn has poisoned to well with his whole history.
 
Sure it's possible. It's improbable, and I do believe if it doubles it would be the time to extricate yourself from the situation immediately if not sooner. I think it it went to 200 it would pop and hit 180 pretty quickly, then 160, 150 and even 140. But then, I'm really just speculating.

I think, and I could be wrong, but the way I interpreted his wording was the APPL is undervalued NOW. Not as a speculative future-value, but currently, he purports to believe (and whether or not he believes this is questionable) that it ought to be some (1.x +) multiple of what it is today, not tomorrow.

It's a formula.

P/E ratio multiplied by some factor of the percentage of yearly growth. It's old school evaluation of a business based on objective financial measures. Run the numbers on AAPL and then compare to other stocks and you will conclude the same
 
It helps because it wakes up the zombies out there, so that they can realize what a great value AAPL stock is.

Very important, and finally someone sees it as it is and makes people listen.

I don't get how people on this Apple site are against someone pointing out that the shares are undervalued. I guess most people posting have no stock investments and perhaps that is the reason, but doesn't anyone appreciate hearing the truth on AAPL stock?

Get out there and purchase some calls - it's the easiest money you'll ever make!

Forget today's 300 point crash - it's meaningless (explain Alcoa today!)
Costco and Walmart did good I think. Earnings should be good for US stocks. Forget the PIGS in Europe. Oil down is great news for America. Apple is now primed for a jump, but hopefully this 300 point drop was just a crazy market today.

Of course, they are somewhat undervalued (but not by much, since a company this size can't by definition have massive growth), but that doesn't mean is god damn mantra of stock buy back is the wisest move.

It is not just that Apple is a bit undervalued (should probably be about $115-$120 right now) as the fact that other companies are overvalued.
- Google slightly overvalued : 10-15%
- Amazon... Immensely overvalued...
Don't know what on earth is holding up that stock... Some kind of slow motion Ponzi? With Alibaba on the quick rise, Amazon will be under a lot of pressure in the next few years making their margins even thinner. f your never ever going to make a substantial profit, how is this stock's price justified!
 
Can you imagine if what happened to the BlackBerry had happened to the iPhone? Or if the #bendgate thing had actually been widespread? SERIOUS, SERIOUS problem.

Let us put in perspective for you and Flunkie. Blackberry is about as bad a drop off as is conceivable, right? 2011 was Blackberries last year of growth. They had their best year. They finished that their fiscal year in February, 2011 with $2.7 billion in cash.

They have fallen drastically since then. It is now well into 2014

They currently sit on about $3.1 billion in cash.

You guys don't get how incredibly bad you actually have to operate as a company to burn through even $1 billion in cash in a year, much less $100 billion. Or the $200 billion cash cushion you want Apple to get to.

You can lose cash at these levels by buying companies and then writing them off. Microsoft does this all the time. But you can't actually lose money at this level by making and selling high margin products like smartphones. That is even with catastrophic decrease in popularity for your product.
 
His point is to make a quick buck at the expense of future profits (Apple would need to borrow more or pay taxes on money it brought back into the country) and therefore future investors. This is the same tired Wall Street attitude that's been destroying the US for the last 30+ years. This guy would turn Apple into the next Enron, jacking up share prices while gutting the real value of the company. He would of course be shorting the stock well before the bad news became public.

By the way, Apple isn't undervalued just because other tech companies are over valued!

This is delusional. You simply don't understand finance and comparing engaging in a stock buyback to Enron, which was an outright fraud, is silly. There are a lot of smart people who invest in the market. If Icahn's proposal is as patently stupid as many of you claim it is then the market simply won't reward Apple stock with a higher price in the short run.



Icahn will eventually die and he can't take his shares with him past the grave, greedy ****er Icahn is.

Still keeping it classy. Keep it up.

But you do realise that it is all stock market manuevering and manipulation, of course.

Hold up. A partial owner of a company who wants a say into how that company is run is manipulation? Please, next time your kid runs a lemonade stand feel free to call her a leech if she has any suggestions for improving the enterprise.

No actual value is being created, and the end result after all the sell offs for profit is APPL stock trading right back where it started or lower, and the market's confidence in the stock will have been damaged on the long term.

You have not presented a compelling thesis for why any of that baloney is true. I, however, have posted a primer on stock buybacks that spells out exactly when buybacks are value-generating or value-destroying. No one has brought up a point that actually makes sense financially for how an enlarged buyback would be a value-destructive action in Apple's case.

You of all people should know that this is precisely how "the greatest investor of all time" has made his billions. The guy hasn't created anything or done anything producing actual value his entire life.

Carl Icahn has improved the lives of more people than you will ever hope to. He has gotten fantastically rich in the process but that's all anyone looks at. Think of the thousands of pensions/retirees/retail investors that his involvement in a company has helped via throwing out incompetent management or improving that company. If you're a "fat-cat CEO" or board-member collecting a massive salary for not actually creating value for the real owners of the company (common shareholders) then Carl Icahn is your worst enemy.

Apple as a company produces actual value, real products people around the globe use to produce and create things.

Yes, which they would continue to do whether there was $50 billion or $150b in the bank earning <1% interest.


"Owners" of these companies' are so completely detached from them that they have no regard whatsoever for what actually happens to them or what business they are in, or even if they will actually exist tomorrow. All that matters is the personal ROI, and in most cases these days, it is for the highest ROI in the shortest possible timeframe.

I think it's cute you think the market can be so easily fooled into pushing up the price of the most traded stock in the world temporarily whereas the brilliant minds behind Carl Icahn haters on macrumors see right through all this nonsense and concentrate on true, long-term value.

That analogy made earlier about the TV and the box of money is also ridiculous. Not accurate in the least.

First of all, "Management" would not charge $2250 for the TV, because they wouldn't set the price. You would not even be buying the "TV" from the "store", but through a broker on the open market where you pay a price you thought it was worth buying at that point in time. AND, unless you were there at the initial IPO, there is no locked box with $750 in it, and the "TV" you bought wouldn't even be brand new, but used, probably with many thousands of previous owners. Even then, since it is a free open market, there are people buying the same model TV at the fluctuating asking price every day. People are paying what the "TV" is worth to them at that given moment.

This doesn't negate my analogy at all. When you buy a share of Apple stock for around $100 you are buying the company for around $75 and then $25 in cash earning nothing that Apple isn't using. Period. It's your money, they aren't using it, and you could have used that money for something else that would be more productive.

A stable, consistent buyback scheme like the one they are doing now, with moderately increased dividends over time will be a much better strategy long term for Apple the company, because it will encourage longer term rises in the stock price for the shareholder, while not artificially spiking the stock, which would inevitably have a whiplash effect that could easy do more harm to the stock value over time than good.

And guess who pushed for this buyback scheme? Apple continues to generate more cash than they can use and give back to shareholders. It needs to be enlarged, which is exactly what Carl is arguing for.


The problem is he is very smart, and very good at what he's doing. He does know what he's talking about.

And what he's talking about is making Carl Ichan rich.

Not making Apple successful.
Not necessarily benefitting other shareholders.

Carl Icahn has invested in the common stock of Apple. He only makes money when every other shareholder does.
Please explain how Icahn's proposal helps the living poop out of Apple's shareholders.

Already done, time after time. If you, like Carl Icahn, believe that Apple is undervalued, then buying back stock is value-generating for shareholders.
 
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Not sure I get this, are you saying a stock can not be over or under valued?

Pretty much. If you buy a stock because you are convinced that the market is undervaluing it, and the valuation doesn't change, was it really undervalued in the first place?

Icahn's case for AAPL being undervalued is a bit more direct. He looks at their $166B in under-utilized cash reserves and considers what the stock would be worth if more of that money was used to reduce the float.

----------

Sure it's possible. It's improbable, and I do believe if it doubles it would be the time to extricate yourself from the situation immediately if not sooner. I think it it went to 200 it would pop and hit 180 pretty quickly, then 160, 150 and even 140. But then, I'm really just speculating.

I think, and I could be wrong, but the way I interpreted his wording was the APPL is undervalued NOW. Not as a speculative future-value, but currently, he purports to believe (and whether or not he believes this is questionable) that it ought to be some (1.x +) multiple of what it is today, not tomorrow.

See above...
 
Carl Icahn has invested in the common stock of Apple. He only makes money when every other shareholder does.

He only makes money when every other shareholder could potentially make money, but the idea that I, Apple Shareholder, make money when Icahn does is just false.

I don't move the stock price when I tweet.

I don't have the CEO's ear.

I don't have a reputation as a corporate raider, who pressures companies to do what I want, when I want it.

And most importantly, he and I only make money at the same time if we bought and sold at the same time. Which is just not the case.

Let us put in perspective for you and Flunkie. Blackberry is about as bad a drop off as is conceivable, right? 2011 was Blackberries last year of growth. They had their best year. They finished that their fiscal year in February, 2011 with $2.7 billion in cash.

They have fallen drastically since then. It is now well into 2014

They currently sit on about $3.1 billion in cash.

You guys don't get how incredibly bad you actually have to operate as a company to burn through even $1 billion in cash in a year, much less $100 billion. Or the $200 billion cash cushion you want Apple to get to.

You can lose cash at these levels by buying companies and then writing them off. Microsoft does this all the time. But you can't actually lose money at this level by making and selling high margin products like smartphones. That is even with catastrophic decrease in popularity for your product.

And I can get through a rough period on a few thousand dollars. Scale is a thing that matters. Apple is a company an order of magnitude larger than Blackberry, even at its peak.

Apple has lost money selling high margin products in the past. Apple is currently building a massively expensive corporate HQ, an action that doesn't exactly have a great corporate track record.

And you'll note I never said I want to see all their cash reserves held onto - I'm just not nearly as aggressive as Ichan, and would prefer to see modest but consistent dividend increases, over "Lets goose the share price and make Carl rich".
 
The problem is he is very smart, and very good at what he's doing. He does know what he's talking about.

And what he's talking about is making Carl Ichan rich.

Not making Apple successful.
Not necessarily benefitting other shareholders.
Just making Carl Ichan rich.

Weird. You quoted something as coming from me but I didn't say that.

Anyway, I agree that this will make Carl Icahn rich. I suspect it will benefit Apple shareholders at the same time. I don't think this will hurt Apple the company. It might help Apple retain employees longer since their stock options will be worth more with the increased stock price. But it might also inspire some high level employees to retire.

But I do believe the cash pile is unnecessarily large. It has grown well past the rainy day fund. Apple could probably cease selling ANY products and shut down all operations and just sit and pay its employees for decades on the basis of that cash pile. A company doesn't need that level of cushion. That is crazy.

----------

He only makes money when every other shareholder could potentially make money, but the idea that I, Apple Shareholder, make money when Icahn does is just false.

I don't move the stock price when I tweet.

I don't have the CEO's ear.

I don't have a reputation as a corporate raider, who pressures companies to do what I want, when I want it.

And most importantly, he and I only make money at the same time if we bought and sold at the same time. Which is just not the case.



And I can get through a rough period on a few thousand dollars. Scale is a thing that matters. Apple is a company an order of magnitude larger than Blackberry, even at its peak.

Apple has lost money selling high margin products in the past. Apple is currently building a massively expensive corporate HQ, an action that doesn't exactly have a great corporate track record.

And you'll note I never said I want to see all their cash reserves held onto - I'm just not nearly as aggressive as Ichan, and would prefer to see modest but consistent dividend increases, over "Lets goose the share price and make Carl rich".

Okay. Then we aren't too far off. I like the dividends as well even though there is a tax cost to them.

The corporate HQ is only going to cost in the single digit billions. As large a cost as that is, it really won't move the needle for Apple.

Apple is an order of magnitude bigger than Blackberry at its peak. But going back to my example, Blackberry has made it through a horrific downturn without running out of cash. Apple could do the same. If they create a dud of an iPhone, then instead of selling it at $650, they sell it at $450 and still make a small profit on it and they sell everyone they make (obviously ramping back production in that case). But even with a Dud iPhone they don't have to dip into cash reserves. Only thing I could see that would be a real cost is if they had to do a massive recall of all iPhones after selling some huge number like 100 million. Absent something like that, they can't loose cash fast enough to eat into $166 billion.
 
But I do believe the cash pile is unnecessarily large. It has grown well past the rainy day fund. Apple could probably cease selling ANY products and shut down all operations and just sit and pay its employees for decades on the basis of that cash pile. A company doesn't need that level of cushion. That is crazy.

Maybe they are saving for Apple's retirement. We all need to do that, don't we?
 
Pretty much. If you buy a stock because you are convinced that the market is undervaluing it, and the valuation doesn't change, was it really undervalued in the first place?

Who knows, how long time are we talking about. The reason I asked is because I immediately thought about the dot com era, I don't thing both these valuations were correct just to give an example.

Amazon in Dec 10 1999: $106.7
Amazon in Aug 06 2001: $8.4

Icahn's case for AAPL being undervalued is a bit more direct. He looks at their $166B in under-utilized cash reserves and considers what the stock would be worth if more of that money was used to reduce the float.

I guess so, but if it's under valued, which it may well be, wouldn't the price correct it self without any special measures aimed specifically to affect the value.
 
This is the growth...

...of a cancer in Apples executive board. This will get worse. Apple is screwed.:mad:
 
I guess so, but if it's under valued, which it may well be, wouldn't the price correct it self without any special measures aimed specifically to affect the value.

Yes, but the cash is a problem. If I want to buy into Apple's innovation as a company, I buy the shares. But because the market cap is $600 billion and there is $166 billion in cash, a significant portion of the $101 I pay for the share is to "buy" that stock's portion of the cash. But that portion of the company only makes a 1% return or thereabouts.
If I'm buying Apple, I want to buy Apple. I don't want to buy 2/3 Apple and 1/3 a money market fund.

At the end of the day, this isn't a big deal for long term holders. I agree with that. Icahn is a multi-year holder, but some of us plan on being multi-decade holders. Eventually Apple will do something with the cash. Icahn has come up with a suggestion. If he is right about the growth in revenue coming, then the stock price will go up. In that case Apple will have missed a chance to use the cash in a very profitable way. I'd like to see bigger buy backs. Not announced now, but at the end of their fiscal year. This would be on the basis of another successful iPhone launch. Also a bit of an increase in dividends would be nice. I don't mind the taxes and they go to my government anyway.
 
If Apple's share price were to actually double as Icahn says it should, Apple would be worth $1.2 trillion.

I agree that Apple is underpriced, but I think they might just be hitting a valuation wall.
 
Who knows, how long time are we talking about. The reason I asked is because I immediately thought about the dot com era, I don't thing both these valuations were correct just to give an example.

Amazon in Dec 10 1999: $106.7
Amazon in Aug 06 2001: $8.4



I guess so, but if it's under valued, which it may well be, wouldn't the price correct it self without any special measures aimed specifically to affect the value.

Theories about valuations can be controversial and it's something academics like to argue about. But I will hang my hat on a Nobel Prize in Economics that was awarded last year for the theory that (in short) market prices reflect everything currently known about that company. What's known changes constantly, of course, as do stock prices. I like this concept because it serves as a warning to those who think they can outsmart the markets, and it confirms the reason why so few succeed in outsmarting the markets over the long haul. They have to know something hardly anyone else does, and that is unlikely.

Bubbles are another matter, I believe. They occur when the conventional expectations get way ahead of reality. But the key is, markets don't know that they are getting ahead of reality until reality arrives.
 
It's a fair guess that most of the posters who denigrate Carl Icahn don't have any of their own money invested in AAPL. Any who does would have to notice the positive impact his comments have on the stock price.

Deflect, deflect, deflect. How does it feel to be a wanton slave of a greedy, decrepit, old and soon to be dead man?
 
But in this time of runaway capitalism, where schools and even TV news shows have to show a profit, he's probably going to be lauded as a minor saint after he's dead. It appears that today's business schools could be radically shortened to about a week if they just focused on the many ways to screw the living poop out of as many people as they can.

It still makes me wonder why Bernie Madoff was dealt with so harshly. They didn't like getting cheated like 'the rest of us'?

Madoff stole from rich people... instead of screwing over and stealing poor people, which is what rich people normally do.
 
This particular quote is incredibly important, and somehow, always overlooked.

What's good for the billionaire investor is rarely good for the average investor. And it's even more rarely good for people with long positions.

That's not true. The only way to 'create change' in this 'post-modern world' we live in, is from within, and the only way to get 'within' is to either work your way up, or BUY your way in.

There are many examples (I hope) of companies that have been bought into by billionaire investors that have been turned around to the good. When someone actually values others more than themselves, good things DO happen... Occasionally...

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It helps because it wakes up the zombies out there, so that they can realize what a great value AAPL stock is.

Very important, and finally someone sees it as it is and makes people listen.

I don't get how people on this Apple site are against someone pointing out that the shares are undervalued. I guess most people posting have no stock investments and perhaps that is the reason, but doesn't anyone appreciate hearing the truth on AAPL stock?

Get out there and purchase some calls - it's the easiest money you'll ever make!

Forget today's 300 point crash - it's meaningless (explain Alcoa today!)
Costco and Walmart did good I think. Earnings should be good for US stocks. Forget the PIGS in Europe. Oil down is great news for America. Apple is now primed for a jump, but hopefully this 300 point drop was just a crazy market today.

But you have to realize that in the game of the stock market, unless you own in the mid-double digits of stock, you are just like the flea on the dog running down the road. You have no control, and when the dog runs in the path of the Rolls-Royce, and gets smeared, you had a 'good ride', and were probably wiped out...
 
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