Icahn essentially wants Apple to use its entire savings to buy its own stock. Moreover, Apple will do it using borrowed money. You seem intelligent, so I should not have to explain the future risk of that. But Icahn will not be in the stock in the future, so he will be fine. It is Apple and long term stock holders that will have increased risk exposure.
Further, I have no problem with Icahn voicing his view. I just want Apple to ignore him. As a long term investor, I would prefer Apple to increase the dividend it pays, or do nothing for now, and be more conservative with buying back its own stock.
Interest rates are incredibly low right now, and if Apple does indeed buy stock with borrowed money, they'll have incurred debt they could pay off in its entirety instantly if they really wanted, since the cash pile is still there.
I see no problem with savings, but here's the thing. You save for the lean times. Apple has done that by several orders of magnitude already, and they're "saving" more every week a half billion dollars at a time. No other company has anything close to Apple's "savings" nor would any company ever need to save so much. It's unfathomable that Apple should ever need this much cash on hand to save themselves from destruction.
So you tell me, how much should Apple save up? Enough to run their business without selling a single product for a whole year? Two years? Five years? We are well past that now. Apple spends only about $21 billion a year on operating expenses. That's spending on everything, from R&D to payroll to electricity to acquisitions. Currently Apple is making about $50 billion a year. In just one year, Apple makes more money as profit than they'll need to spend in the entire next year and a few months beyond that. Even in the leanest of times, Apple's not going to be selling zero products at all, and if that did happen, they probably wouldn't need to pay so many retail employees, I'm guessing. So how much savings does Apple really need?
I would say $25 billion would be really pushing it, myself, but why not start there as a baseline. Okay. If Apple loses 50% of its revenue generation, Apple still wouldn't need to touch that savings. If Apple lost 75% of its revenue generation, Apple would still be able to run for about 3 years on $25 billion in savings, without any cutbacks on expenses. If Apple can't get their act together in 3 years with their current operating budget then frankly they deserve to go out of business. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't still be an investor just 1 year after they lost 75% of their revenue generation, much less 3, and I'd be glad that Apple paid out 125 billion to investors back while I still was one.
But even with $25 billion in savings, do we really think Apple is in any financial trouble right now? They keep selling more iPhones and iPads, not less, and Macs too. They're still a dominant force in music and app sales, and their software does pretty well. Other than maybe the (arguably obsolete) iPod, it seems Apple is only doing better and better in every product category. Are you expecting that to change suddenly? If it does change, it'll be slow, not sudden. And meanwhile, while we're talking about Apple keeping a rather huge $25 billion in savings, next year they'll easily double that with new profits.
So why not do as large a buyback as possible? Long before lean times come to Apple, they'd have had plenty of warning and plenty of profits to replace the ones they've spent buying back stock. While I don't think it'd be good to get rid of Apple's
entire cash pile no matter how fast it's filling back up, $100 billion is definitely too small in light of Apple's current revenue generation and operating expenses. If Apple is indeed telling the truth that they're doing everything they can to grow the business, then they have no need for that money and can pay it out to the shareholders through larger dividends or a larger buyback. I maybe wouldn't go for $150 billion, but $125 would be very reasonable, combined with larger dividend payouts going forward to keep Apple's cash pile less than $50 billion. If new product categories cause another big explosion in revenue, do another buyback down the line.