blackfox said:
The thing is that we haven't been able to find any indirect proof of intelligent life anywhere, as measured by "waste heat" or "radio communications".
By the Second Law of Thermodynamics, any advanced civilization should generate waste heat, as their energy expenditures would be enormous and a % of this would leak of and be detected by our instruments.
As for Radio waves, we have mastered the art of radio and television in the past 50 years, so there is a radius of radio waves surrounding our planet moving outward. Any planet which finds itself within this ever-expanding sphere should be able to detect that we have intelligent life. Likewise, it seems likely that any advance intelligent life would be producing copious amounts of electromagnetic radiation that we should be able to detect - but no dice so far.
OTOH, the odds for intelligent life even in our galaxy are staggering, using a crude method of estimation:
Our galaxy contains about 200 billion stars. Say 10% of these are yellow stars like our sun, and that 10% of those have planets orbiting them, and 10% of those have earth-like planets with atmospheres compatible with life, and 10% of those have some form of life, and 10% of those have intelligent life.
This means 1 millionth of the two billion stars will probably have some form of intelligent life. That is 200,000 planets. Just in our Galaxy.
Which makes the fact that we can't find them all the more perplexing...
Well, if we're talking about intelligent life more advanced than our own, it's very likely they have developed more effecient technology that is not going to generate so much waste, and reuse it instead.
And, I think an estimate of 10% of Earth-like planets having intelligent life is a bit high.
It takes a very, very long time for life to evolve into a highly intelligent form. It also takes a lot of luck.
We are very lucky that Earth, and us, are still around. We have defied so much probability to last thing long, yet here we are.
Galaxies are more densely populated with objects (planets, moons, asterioids, other debris) towards their center. The further you get from the center, the space is less dense with objects.
Using the density, or amount, of objects at a similar radius to the center of the galaxy as ours, scientists have estimated a planet of our size is very likely to get hit by a cataclysmic impact (one capable of wiping out human life) about every 20 million years.
The last time we've been hit by such an impact was 65 million years ago. Statistically speaking, we should have experienced similar impacts 3 times by now.
Our luck might eventually run out, but this is also a threat to other planets out there. As we stand, life on our planet is not intelligent enough to figure out and create spaceships capable of taking the passengers extremely far distances.
For life to evolve to that point, it would take a very, very long time. That's a lot of luck to have, among other factors, and the number of civilizations making it that far, while I do believe they exist, has to be incredibly low.