Classic 12 core Mac Pro Value in 2-3 years

Discussion in 'Mac Pro' started by RoastingPig, Feb 7, 2014.

  1. RoastingPig, Feb 7, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2014

    RoastingPig macrumors 68000

    RoastingPig

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
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    SoCal
    #1
    hey i currently have a 12 core that's in my sig that i use everyday to edit videos in premier and anyways i got it about a year ago off of craigslist. so looking at current ebay auctions i see that i can sell this beast for 2900-3100 bucks because mines is mint.

    so my question is what do you think this machine is going to be worth in about 2-3 years? i want to keep this machine for the moment because the nMP i want doesn't yet exists "hoping for a nvidia based nMP" possibly in couple years when amd folds.
     
  2. analog guy macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2009
    #2
    hard to say, but my bet would be $500-800.

    i think there's a bit of a bubble right now for those machines as there is little that is directly comparable and the fully-loaded nMP is very, very pricey. i suspect -- just a guess -- that in 2-3 years the nMP will have proven itself in the market OR there will be something else for those users, so the price will plummet.
     
  3. ybz90 macrumors 6502a

    ybz90

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2009
    #3
    Don't expect too much, since these CPUs are already pretty slow for professional uses. In terms of single threaded performance, it's not very impressive anymore, even compared to consumer CPUs.

    That doesn't mean it won't get the job done; it definitely will and I have a 12-core cMP myself. But in 2-3 years, I wouldn't expect resale to be above the 600-750 mark.
     
  4. RoastingPig thread starter macrumors 68000

    RoastingPig

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    #4
    bummer. we think usb 2.0 and sata 2 is bad rite now, imagine in the poor bastard who buys this from me in 2017 :D
     
  5. ScottishCaptain macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2008
    #5
    And yet, Apple insisted on going down to a single CPU system, which is only barely marginally faster then the equivalent dual CPU 6-core 2.93ghz machine.

    Technology may be improving, but Apple's general machine specifications are not. There is a good chance that the "Mac Pro of tomorrow" will only be marginally faster then the current nMP, which in turn is only marginally faster then the Classic Mac Pro's we've already got.

    So until Apple goes back to dual CPUs (or more), I'm sure the value of the classic Mac Pro will hold up just fine. After all, we're still the only system that accepts PCI-e 8x/16x cards and can be equipped with a modern day NVIDIA GPU.

    -SC
     
  6. ybz90 macrumors 6502a

    ybz90

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    Jul 10, 2009
    #6
    This is just untrue. The performance delta is significant per thread. Current consumer grade Macs (and Macbooks) already have superior single threaded performance to the last-gen cMPs. I don't know what benchmarks you're looking at, but if you're looking at things like Geekbench, it's not a valid benchmark unless you actually use all of those cores. For everyday tasks, the classic Mac Pro is actually slower than a Haswell MacBook Pro.

    The move to single CPU, while disappointing, also makes sense as Intel's offerings now go up to 12-core single CPUs rather than 2x6-core from previous generation chipsets. As far as core count, there is no difference compared to before.

    The value will not hold up. In 2-3 years, expect <$750. The prices have already dropped pretty substantially from just two months ago, and it will only go down. Of course, regarding long-term value, this is just my opinion. I cannot see the future.
     
  7. ScottishCaptain macrumors 6502a

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    Oct 4, 2008
    #7
    I don't use Geekbench for this precise reason. It is not a valid benchmark.

    I've done my own extensive testing on both systems, using both Cinebench, Cinema 4D, and several other applications as well (After Effects, Photoshop, Nuke, etc). The last tests I ran on a production Cinema 4D scene were as follows (per frame, averaged across 1800 frames):

    - 12 core 2010 Mac Pro, 2.93ghz: 3m 54s
    - 12 core 2013 Mac Pro, 2.70ghz: 3m 35s

    That's less then a 10% speed increase over the former generation. So I'm not sure what you're talking about, but from where I'm standing, CPU to CPU the performance isn't enough to warrant upgrading. Other testing with other apps has yielded similar results, the nMP is at best 20% faster then the old system for some tasks, but it's usually closer to around 10%.

    -SC
     
  8. Mactrunk macrumors regular

    Joined:
    May 12, 2005
    #8
    I'm not a fortune teller, but I do think the 12 core classic will retain much of its value.
    I would estimate $1500 or more in two years.
    Something about the big solid box with everything on board.
    Also the fact that it is the last iteration of a great design.

    The nMP is not everyone's cup of tea.
    Many still want the traditional desktop mac.
    MP's seem to hold their value pretty well.

    OTOH, if your 12 core is slowing you down, sell it and buy the nMP now for maximum return.
     
  9. MacVidCards Suspended

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2008
    Location:
    Hollywood, CA
    #9
    Will be fun as 5690s come down out of stratosphere, everyone will have 12 core 3.46 Ghz with a Titan Black or two.

    Looks like Wireless AC is going to work too.

    Still good times ahead for cMP. Obviously the 2009-12 Dual Core machines will hold value better than 2006-2008 and 2009-2012 Singles.
     
  10. JesterJJZ macrumors 68020

    JesterJJZ

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    Jul 21, 2004
    #10
    Considering I can probably get around $1500 for my juiced up MP1,1 from 2006, I'd say it'll hold value even better now that the cMP is no more.
     
  11. RoastingPig thread starter macrumors 68000

    RoastingPig

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    #11
    im in for the long haul. i just hope osx and nvidia web drivers keep backing us.
     
  12. Gav Mack macrumors 68020

    Gav Mack

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    #12
    Indeed, when the dual sockets get cheap enough and I grab a bargain I'll be buying one to throw my 3,1 upgrades inside and retire the 2008. As the nMP is totally unsuitable for my needs I'll be using a tower until they are totally defunct!
     
  13. Macsonic macrumors 65816

    Macsonic

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    #13
    I might be the one who buys your 12 core Mac Pro. You'll have to give me a good deal. :D But kidding aside, not good in guessing, I think years from now the 12 core 2.66ghz will be around $1500. The 12 core 2.93ghz around $1900. 3.33ghz 12 core around $2400 to $2500
     
  14. ybz90 macrumors 6502a

    ybz90

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    Jul 10, 2009
    #14
    In case you didn't notice, the OP doesn't have your 2.93GHz CPU, but rather, the more pedestrian 2.66, which is astronomically cheaper as is. Furthermore, your use case is not representative of everyones, nor is it necessarily diagnostic of future value. Besides, the argument isn't whether the nMP is "worth upgrading" to but rather how much cMP's will be worth in a few years time.

    Like I said, my stance was just my opinion, but in the last two months, I've already seen street prices drop 2-300 for dual-CPU cMPs. The value isn't going to hold up in 2-3 years, there's just no way.
     
  15. OrangeSVTguy macrumors 601

    OrangeSVTguy

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    Northeastern Ohio
    #15
    In 2-3 years I don't seeing a classic Mac Pro 12 core dropping below $1000. It will still run current GPUs and USB 3.0 with PCIe cards or SATA III. Unless there are GPU upgrades for the new Mac Pro, I still see there being a market for the Classic Mac pros.
     
  16. ybz90 macrumors 6502a

    ybz90

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    Jul 10, 2009
    #16
    The way I look at it, Macs don't hold value quite as well as they used to. A dual-CPU 8-score can already be had for <$900 on Craigslist and other channels now. A pair of X5650s like the OP has are <$300 on eBay. I didn't expect it either, but the nMP really put a dent in the resale value in the last two months or so, after holding steady for about two years, and it's just wishful thinking to think it'll stay steady for the next two-three.
     
  17. goMac macrumors 603

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2004
    #17
    Haswell-EP is looking like 14 cores a process and Broadwell-EP is looking like 18.

    With the SATA2 limit you mentioned limiting SSD upgrades, I would guess that it won't be worth too much. $1000 would probably be fair, if that.

    The problem is that it's a pro machine that won't really be usable as a pro machine at that point.
     
  18. JesterJJZ macrumors 68020

    JesterJJZ

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    Jul 21, 2004
    #18
    I know a Grammy winning mastering engineer that still rocks a G4 Powermac. If it aint broke…

    Just saying…just because it gets old, doesn't always make it unusable.
     
  19. funwithdesign macrumors regular

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    Dec 9, 2011
    #19
    Exactly. The older machines don't all of a sudden stop doing what they did before the new ones came out.
     
  20. cal6n macrumors 68000

    cal6n

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    #20
    A lot will depend on the OS support. The reason the 2006/7 Mac Pros lost their value was due to their inability to fully support 64-bit versions of OS X without hacking the system.

    Apple has now finished their transition to 64-bit computing and I reckon that any system that has survived this has a good chance of being supported well into the future.

    Obviously, the old form factor Mac pros will depreciate over time but they are very capable machines and, as long as the OS support continues, there are plenty of people who will pay a reasonable amount for them.
     
  21. deconstruct60 macrumors 604

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    Mar 10, 2009
    #21
    Usable and holding market value are two orthogonal things. If no one would find it useful at all nobody would even buy it. That isn't the question here. The question is whether folks who might find it usable are going to pay current day Mac Pro 2009-2012 prices.

    This example
    is exactly the kind of person who won't. These kinds of folks haven't even paid for the 2009-2012 Mac Pro prices now. They are not likely to want to pay in the future either. Folks still clinging exclusively to PPC OS X code are more likely going to be looking for G5's 2-3 years from now than a Mac Pro.
     
  22. deconstruct60 macrumors 604

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    Mar 10, 2009
    #22
    Not really.

    Apple's hardware support policy is plain as day.

    http://support.apple.com/kb/HT1752

    After the machine is superseded, there is a 5-7 window where support drops off. Picking "max" ranges.

    2008 superseded in 2009 , Plus 7 years 2016
    2009 superseded in 2010 , Plus 7 years 2017
    2010 superseded in 2012 , Plus 7 years 2019 [**]

    The "bottom" fell out on the 2006-7 that leaves 2008 in the used but might get support level. In two years the bottom will probably fall out of OS X support for the 2008 model. There is no rational support reason to support software on hardware that is de-supported. ( "If it ain't broke you have to continue to support it" is a fantasy dreamed up by folks who don't have to pay to provide the support.). 2008 prices will likely significantly drop and they'll likely take 2009-2010 models down a notch too.


    Apple can cut off the OS X updates before the hardware goes vintage but "max" expectations are not particularly well grounded into the Vintage classification.


    Intel is end-of-life of the Xeon 5600 in 2016

    http://www.cpu-world.com/news_2013/...tinues_E3-1200_and_5600_series_Xeon_CPUs.html
    [ The 3500/3600 CPUs are already EOL in retail and will be EOL to system venders this Q3 2014.
    http://www.cpu-world.com/news_2013/...ues_Xeon_3500_and_3600_server_processors.html

    Think going to get hardware support from vendors in 2016-2018 when Intel is pulling the parts this year?? Yes this thread is about a dual, but a large fraction of the Mac Pros from that era had 3500/3600. If those are dropping into vintage/obsolete Apple is highly to crave out special updates just for duals (an even smaller subset of active systems). ]


    [**] I know there are folks betting that the same basic board minus firmware might give extra extended life to the 2009-2010 models. I wouldn't count on that. As pointed out above even Intel is EOL the associated hardware past 2016. Apple is likely going to be looking to minimize their risk and will probably mean pruning off those years when they technically can.

    There is a 2 year swing in the 5-7 year range. Wouldn't be surprising if even 2012 models wrap up in 2017. It is far closer to the truth of the hardware since was mostly 2 year old parts at the time.


    Will there still be some 10.6.8 forever folks in 2016-2018? Probably. But the market value for those looking to stay relatively current with OS X updates is going to be highly limited in 2-3 years.
     
  23. deconstruct60 macrumors 604

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    Mar 10, 2009
    #23
    You are betting that AMD folds ? Not particularly likely. Even less so since Intel's extra payments to Nvidia are drying up ( so they could "throw money" as problems ) and the classic PC form factor market stagnates.

    BS fanboy mode is highly unlikely to provide clarity of insight into the future. If Nvidia gets their OpenCL act together they have a shot at being in a future Mac Pro, but as of right now they are behind the curve.


    You should be far more deeply concerned about what happens to the dGPU market for the older Mac Pros. If that stagnates or collapses the value of having dGPU replacement capability is going to go down. (the Hackinstosh market will be around but it isn't going to be effective in keeping prices up. If counting on hacked firmware to keep Mac Pro prices up... LOL... betting on the wrong horse. )


    Some (probably most) of the effort to leverage the extended time the 2012 model was primary Mac Pro model by dGPU vendors should have largely petered out in 2-3 years. When the 2008 goes into vintage mode even more so. ( Population of active box-with-slot Mac Pros looking for dGPUs is going to tick down substantially).
     
  24. ybz90 macrumors 6502a

    ybz90

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2009
    #24
    That's not the question at hand. The issue is what the value will be in the long run, specifically two to three years. My PowerBook G4 works perfectly. It even has a SSD. It's worth pennies on the dollar.
     
  25. goMac macrumors 603

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2004
    #25
    Well, the question was price, not usage.

    Your friend maybe be using a G4 Powermac, but the value of that Power Mac is probably $50, which was the thread topic. I'm not trying to badmouth old hardware, just saying...

    I don't think support for the 2008 will be dropped any time soon. There is no natural reason why that would happen (it's got EFI64, and it's 64 bit.)
     

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