Concerned about the end of the oil age?

[cslewis]

I call them wind mills... there's some gears, a millstone, and they do all sorts of wonderful work, but don't generate electricity with a turbine.

Things can be built after peak oil, it's just going to take a lot longer, a lot more money, and require a lot more effort and direction which is why I'm becoming a bit more left wing, I'm afraid.

No, but hey, you can still pump water with them!\

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All it means is that things are going to be built to last, with materials that age gracefully; simply because it will not be economically viable for a building to get totally remodeled/rebuilt every 15-20 years. It may be more expensive, but people will put more care and more work into buildings of the future, because that building will be a ONE-TIME deal! When you think about it, many people live in houses 100 or more years old. Could you imagine the suburban McMansion lasting that long? No. People assume today that they will be able to rebuild, or that their house is going to be replaced with another in time. That was not the case pre-cheap oil.

 

[crap freakboy]

Well I for one would like to thank everyone on this thread for depressing me.
Can't we go to Disneyland and forget about it? Popcorn on me!!

 

[eclipse]

High freakboy... yeah, I'd love to. Except I'm in Australia.

Yeah, Mac Head I've been thinking that for ages. There's pubs in London where you can go and grab a good pint in a structure that's lasted 600 years.

Why oh why do we build this rubbish?

We need to take care to build homes and neighbourhoods with classic craftmanship and beauty, integrating natural beauty as well, so that local people can rejoice in their own surroundings and not feel they have to drive to somewhere beautiful! What is attractive about hectares and hectares of suburban McMansion rooftop? blargh!

http://www.ecocitybuilders.org/
Check out the home page here where they show how to ZONE the suburbs around areas of most intense & diverse settlement, and gradually through land title replacement move people from the dying suburbs back into an energy efficient urban hub ecocity.


Check out the illustration of the potential transformation of a big box department store & car park into a walking distance ecocity at...

http://www.ecocitybuilders.org/downtown.html

Kind of looks a bit like they've turned the big box store into a fusion of Middle Eastern city and Tatooine to me?

This is their definition below.

Ecocities
An ecocity is a human settlement that enables its residents to live a good quality of life while using minimal natural resources.

Buildings
Its buildings make best use of sun, wind and rainfall to help supply the energy and water needs of occupants. Generally multistory to maximize the land available for greenspace.

Biodiversity
It is threaded with natural habitat corridors, to foster biodiversity and to give residents access to nature for recreation.

Transport
Its food and other goods are sourced from within its borders or from nearby, in order to cut down on transport costs.

The majority of its residents live within walking or cycling distance of their workplace, to minimise the need for motorised transport.

Frequent public transport connects local centres for people who need to travel further.

Local car sharing allows people to use a car only when needed.

Industry
The goods it produces are designed for reuse, remanufacture, and recycling.

The industrial processes its uses involve reuse of by-products, and minimise the movement of goods.

Economy
It has a labour intensive rather than a material, energy, and water intensive economy, to maintain full employment and minimise material throughput.
—Ecocity definition written by our sister organization, Urban Ecology Australia

 

[cslewis]

I don't think our cities will look exactly like some of eco-builders plans (one is attached for viewing pleasure), just a likeness of medieval towns and cities, with their tightly-packed buildings and streets within easy distance of farms outside and (hopefully) a rail station in the middle.

 

[eclipse]

The thing is the eco-village is a transformation of existing infrastructures without requiring the tearing down of said structures.

You must be looking into the far, far future... I think eco-cities are far more doable in the immediate future. A bit of rebuilding, and people can move into an diverse and enjoyable environment where before there was only commerce.

 

[cslewis]

without requiring the tearing down of said structures.

There's the fact that we have to worry about some of the structures falling apart; construction in recent years can be pretty shoddy.

 

[eclipse]

Amen to that!

 

[crap freakboy]

There was a great series on BBC aired in 1986 by James Burke called 'The Day the Universe changed'. In the final episode he predicted that the 'modern' world that we know will change with such speed and change of direction that future generations will look back on the 20th Century as a catalyst for change. It was a remarkable series which along with 'Connections' are without doubt some of the best TV I've seen.

 

[eclipse]

But what fuel's all that change?
Energy is the ability to do work.
Without enough energy, we just can't run what we are running.

http://eclipsenow.org/facts/service-checklist.html


I thoroughly recommend trying to read the information below on my webpage because it looks nicer.


The SERVICE test for alternatives

This is a basic checklist to use in evaluating alternative energy. If a renewable energy fails just one of the tests below, it is not going to replace oil. The more tests it fails, the less it can help mitigate peak oil. The experts are telling us that no alternative energy matches all the tests below, so our lifestyles must change. It is that simple!
“Alternatives are not going to SERVICE our current energy needs after cheap oil.”

S.E.R.V.I.C.E.

Sustainability

Energy payback

Rare materials

Volumes

Implementing Infrastructure

Cheap

Even supply

Sustainability – is it sustainable for the long term?
Bio-diesel depletes the soil unless we put some NPK back (which is also difficult without accruing an energy loss).
Gas conversions to cars will just use up the LPG faster.
A "hydrogen economy" based on natural gas will just bring "peak gas" forward that much quicker, etc.

Energy Payback — the EPR. Do you get more energy out of a device that went into making it in the first place? Have you counted all the energy costs that go into the new energy infrastructure?

Tar sands and shale oil are incredibly energy expensive means of producing fuels. (And would again contribute to the global warming crisis.)

Rare materials essential to some renewable schemes would limit the worldwide deployment of that scheme.
EG: Electric Vehicles (EV’s) hold great promise, but what are the world’s current Lithium reserves and how many generations before we experienced “peak Lithium?”
EG: Fuel cells use plantinum, and after just a few years of a fuel cell transport system we would reach peak platinum.

Volumes — are most often too low.
EG: All Australian wheat into ethanol = 9% of liquid fuels and no bread! This alarming statistic takes into account the fact that we grow enough wheat for roughly 100 million people (we only consume 20% of our wheat for our 20 million Australians.) This statistic comes from Bruce Robinson of the STC.

EG: Biodiesel... even if we managed to grow biodiesel crops without modern fertilizers and pesticides (through biofarming methods such as "crop and cow" rotation) there is just not enough arable land to grow the quantities we need. We would run out of land for food!

Some potential energy volumes are vast (just 40 km by 40 km of solar PV is all Australia's energy needs) but we have left it too little too late. In other words, our current volumes of energy from these sources are far too low... below 1% of worldwide electricity supply.

Even if there is a vast potential energy source such as solar, the following questions pretty much prevent it running what we are currently running.

Implementing the Infrastructure — is the fuel compatible with the current infrastructure? What are the issues in implementing the new fuel at filling stations? Is it easy to transport? Can it be stored easily? How energy dense is the fuel — and will you burn 90% of the fuel just to transport it to the filling station? How long will it take to implement? What other time factors are involved in converting filling stations over?

Cheap — What is this alternative going to cost society? We are not running out of oil, we are running out of cheap oil and it is throwing us into a crisis.The costs for a solar to hydrogen fuel system would currently bankrupt any nation — we may as well use the original solar electricity to charge EV’s rather than bother wasting energy making Hydrogen. What the alternative costs is extremely important, and is the basis of the peak oil crisis.

Even supply of energy — Is the energy supply constant?

The sun doesn’t shine at night, and the wind does not blow for long periods. We need a system of energy that is reliable, or the power grids start to fail. How do we adapt to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources? What backup energy mechanisms are there? How expensive is this, and how do we adapt society to live in the new realities of more expensive energy?

 

[Chacala_Nayarit]

Peak oil leaves me questioning the ethical basis of our whole first world way of life. Sustainability is now a matter of conscience affecting a Christian approach to social justice and poverty.

History has shown what "Christian approach to social justice" is: witch burning, denying social services to those of different beliefs, creationists creating dumbasses in American schools, genocide on American Natives, slavery, Hitler was backed by the Catholic Church, Satanic hysteria in the 80's, memory recollition in the 90's.

Did Jesus even exist? Prove it.

Does god exist? Prove it.

You are just making another end-times nutcase prediction based on an argument from ignorance.

 

[eclipse]

Wow. Someone really has an issue with the word, "Christian".
I'm sorry that you can only see the negative things that Christians may have done in history, and so easily ignore the creation of universities, political movements to ban slavery, (William Wilberforce), the banning of various pagan practices (burning of wives on husbands funeral pyres in India), and the advancement of various welfare reforms and pensions that many in the Western world now take for granted.

I am afraid you may have biased secular worldview that blinds you to the good things Christians have done, and may have allowed yourself to become as inflamed with falsehoods and distortions of the truth as you would apparently cast me — without even knowing me.

Sorry, but you've got me totally wrong.

I'm not basing ANY of my peak oil argument on any biblical material whatsoever.

If you had actually read through my posts, I actually despise that sort of reading of Revelation and in particular take pains to bag that kind of "Left Behind" reading of Revelation. All I was doing was posting part 1 of an article on peak oil in a Christian magazine so that my Christian friends might start to think through their actions in the light of the scientifically verifiable truth that oil is about to peak and go into decline. I actually deleted part 2 which was more theological in nature.

Maybe this topic is not for you? You seem quite upset, please don’t read this thread if you are upset by it. But if you value scientific data and an honest outlook, and can do so politely, I’d be more than happy to continue this discussion with you.

Again, this is not some whacky cult like misinformation, but the conclusions of the best scientists in the world.

Conservative Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, Chairman of the Projection Forces Subcommittee of the Armed Services Committee, has given a number of hour-long presentations on Peak Oil to the US Congress. Full text at the website below, but a quote follows.

"What now? Where do we go now? One observer, Matt Savinar, who has thoroughly researched the options, and this is not the most optimistic assessment, by the way, but may be somewhat realistic, he starts out by saying, "Dear Readers, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon." (I hope not.) "This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse Bible sect or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is a scientific conclusion of the best-paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by the phenomenon known as global peak oil.""
http://www.energybulletin.net/4733.html

 

[eclipse]

I have just noticed your signature... and have looked at the save Allan site. I'm very sorry for your loss.

Maybe this is not the time to be discussing peak oil? I came across peak oil in a time of terrible family pain ... my son appearred to be dying of Leukaemia.

http://members.ozemail.com.au/~toobusy/index.htm

Needless to say, it drove me into a manic effort to try and disprove peak oil as bad science, but the more I looked into it the more real it became. However, maybe having actually lost someone you care about, now is not a good time to discuss this? Again, I'm sorry.

 

[Peterkro]

Eclipse,I also am not too enamoured with Christianity,keep in mind until the beginning of the 19th Century coming out as a nonbeliever was enough to get you executed in most christian countries obviously any thing positive achieved was bound to have been asocciated with believers.Back to the topic I don't care what a persons religeon(or lack of)is if they agree that this is the most dangerous crisis faced by humans in a long time I,m with them.Those that say its a Armagedeon fantasy have clearing not studied the available information.

 

[eclipse]

Yep Peter, that's about right.

Listen to the sense of urgency in the US House of Reps.

Peak Oil resolution in U.S. House of Representatives
21 November 2005 Politics

In Brief: Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the `Man on the Moon' project to address the inevitable challenges of `Peak Oil'.
A peak oil bill has been filed in the House of Representatives with the support of the newly formed Peak Oil Caucus, founded by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (Rep, MD) and a number of co-sponsors. The members of the caucus are James McGovern, Vern Ehlers, Tom Udall, Mark Udall, Raul Grijalva, Wayne Gilchrest, Jim Moran, Dennis Moore.

Co-sponsors are Tom Udall, Virgil Goode, Raul Grijalva, Walter Jones, Tom Tancredo, Phil Gingrey, Randy Kuhl, Steve Israel, G.K. Butterfield, Mark Udall, Chris Van Hollen, Wayne Gilchrest, Al Wynn, John McHugh, Jim Moran, and Dennis Moore.

Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the `Man on the Moon' project to address the inevitable challenges of `Peak Oil'.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
October 24, 2005

Mr. BARTLETT of Maryland (for himself, Mr. UDALL of New Mexico, Mr. GOODE, Mr. GRIJALVA, Mr. JONES of North Carolina, Mr. TANCREDO, Mr. GINGREY, Mr. KUHL of New York, Mr. ISRAEL, Mr. BUTTERFIELD, Mr. UDALL of Colorado, Mr. VAN HOLLEN, Mr. GILCHREST, and Mr. WYNN) submitted the following resolution; which was referred to the Committee on Energy and Commerce

________________________________________
RESOLUTION
Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the `Man on the Moon' project to address the inevitable challenges of `Peak Oil'.

Whereas the United States has only 2 percent of the world's oil reserves; Whereas the United States produces 8 percent of the world's oil and consumes 25 percent of the world's oil, of which nearly 60 percent is imported from foreign countries;

Whereas developing countries around the world are increasing their demand for oil consumption at rapid rates; for example, the average consumption increase, by percentage, from 2003 to 2004 for the countries of Belarus, Kuwait, China, and Singapore was 15.9 percent;

Whereas the United States consumed more than 937,000,000 tonnes of oil in 2004, and that figure could rise in 2005 given previous projection trends;

Whereas, as fossil energy resources become depleted, new, highly efficient technologies will be required in order to sustainably tap replenishable resources;

Whereas the Shell Oil scientist M. King Hubbert accurately predicted that United States domestic production would peak in 1970, and a growing number of petroleum experts believe that the peak in the world's oil production (Peak Oil) is likely to occur in the next decade while demand continues to rise;

Whereas North American natural gas production has also peaked; Whereas the United States is now the world's largest importer of both petroleum and natural gas;

Whereas the population of the United States is increasing by nearly 30,000,000 persons every decade;

Whereas the energy density in one barrel of oil is the equivalent of eight people working full time for one year;

Whereas affordable supplies of petroleum and natural gas are critical to national security and energy prosperity; and Whereas the United States has approximately 250 years of coal at current consumption rates, but if that consumption rate is increased by 2 percent per year, coal reserves are reduced to 75 years:

Now, therefore, be it Resolved, That it is the sense of the House of Representatives that--
(1) in order to keep energy costs affordable, curb our environmental impact, and safeguard economic prosperity, including our trade deficit, the United States must move rapidly to increase the productivity with which it uses fossil fuel, and to accelerate the transition to renewable fuels and a sustainable, clean energy economy; and
(2) the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency of the `Man on the Moon' project to develop a comprehensive plan to address the challenges presented by Peak Oil.