your mileage may vary!!!
the rest of this post depends on how old your iPad is. if its a current iPad or not
the apple genius has the secret ability to replace your out of warranty gadget and not need managers approval depending on your honesty and sob story.
i've heard an iPad can be out of warranty for 3 months , and the genius can still replace your gadget without manager's approval. they do this for like customer satisfaction.
maybe if you told them it was an apple cover that you had, you can maybe get them to replace it
when you are telling your story , try to make the genius feel sorry for your situation , maybe show him pictures of your kids, or bring the kids and family with you. and they might replace it or no cost
when the genius is considering replacing it, he will ask you if you backed up the device. SAY YES, that means he is probably going to believe you and replace it
here is an attachment. i went to the apple store because the screen shattered.
i think they do this for stuff that is still under warranty. or still current. several people have tried this and it sounds to me like they won't do it for older devices.
maybe 15 months is the max they will cover your iPad without applecare ? i dunno