The larger phones and a 9.7 inch tablet are very different experiences, but I think it affects upgrade path more than whether someone buys their first iPad or not. In other words, if you want something for reading magazines, comics, Photography/Art books, and running photo apps like Lightroom, the larger iPhone isn't a substitute, but it may fill other gaps better than the smaller phones (easier to read Safari, Twitter, Flipboard, etc..).
As a result, I can see the time between tablet updates continue to grow until Apple releases an iOS update that is not compatible with older iPads. The number of people still using only an Original iPad is getting smaller by the day (we have ours in the kitchen) and a big part of that was the lack of iOS updates, so we upgraded.
Personally, I updated from the iPad 3 to the Air2. But it would have been a harder choice had I not maxed out my storage on the 3. Now that I have the Air2, I am so happy I made the change. It just makes for a much better experience overall and I use the thing more than all of my other devices combined when I am at home.
EDIT: Forgot to address the fact that a clamshell and a tablet are very different experiences, which is why I don't use my MBP as often as my iPad and have both of them at arm's length when I am at home.
Well, the largest iPhone and iPad are definitely different, but they also have a lot in common....I mean they share the same OS, so there is going to be a fair amount of overlap. Also, a tablet and laptop are different experiences, but they overlap in functionality. (For example, all day battery life was a major selling point of the original iPad, and is a key attribute for a mobile device. But with more energy efficient processors, MBA's battery life now exceeds the iPad) I believe these overlaps are putting the squeeze on iPad sales because some folks just can't justify a third device or can't justify frequently upgrading a third devices that overlaps with their Phone and Laptop.
I am not in the least bit being critical of someone making the decision to own all three devices, since they might have a use case that makes it very worthwhile. I am simply point out that Apples move to expand iPhone product lines and improve integration between OS X and iOS is having an impact on iPad sales.
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