That's a blanket statement.
If more and more people start driving more fuel efficient vehicles, the demand for crude will drop and so will prices.
At $150/bbl in 2008 there were people saying $200/bbl crude was inevitable and we would never again drop below $120/bbl. Well...we did...ending WELL below that. (Sad that it took a massive recession to do it, but it certainly happened.)
Governments can push for even higher-efficiency vehicles and add a tax to gas/petrol to make it worth it to the consumer to switch and the demand for crude oil will , in fact, drop. Otherwise, this natural push toward fuel efficiency would occur on it's own ONLY at somewhere above $130 a barrel with prices dropping afterwards due to market forces.
If crude oil "only ever goes up" from this day forward, I would be absolutely shocked.
Yep it's a blanket statement... but I think you are both right. For the foreseeable future the price of crude is going to trend up. Some weeks it will spike up, and some weeks it will dip down. It might even cycle in months and years, however ... it's going to keep trending up - imho.
American/European driving habits are having less and less impact on the price of oil. What is going to be the driving [sorry!] factor in the price of crude is the sheer number of drivers coming on-lin in China, India, Indonesia, and a few other large developing nations. Those three nations have 2.7 Billion people, the vast majority of whom don't own cars... but want to. By comparison the Eurozone, USA, Canada, and Australia are not quite 0.7 Billion, or 1/4 of the population.
To put it another way.... if there was an increase of just 1 in 4 people in China, India, Indonesia to start driving... every single person in USA, Eurozone, Canada, and Australia would have to use half the gas/petrol to keep things neutral. (All of this is a grand over-simplification of course, but it makes a point, I think). We, in the western world, get excited about a 5% to 10% drop in gas/petrol consumption. But it is going to be dwarfed by the sheer numbers of new drivers that are starting to buy cars.
So yes, we are doing what we can to insulate ourselves from oil price hikes. One of the big things is growing more of own food, and supporting local food producers (less shipping, which is sensitive to oil prices). We're lucky in where we live... we can grow just about everything within a hundred or so kilometres. And our power comes from hydro.