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DRAM Shortage Will Cause 'Seismic Shift' in Smartphone Market, But Apple Will Be Less Affected
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Abydos
macrumors 6502
I'm still not entirely sure, but the AI frenzy may create more mayhem in the electricity markets than in the memory market. Time to buckle in and enjoy the ride or will we see low memory usage flip-phones return for the casual user, what effects on automobiles, household appliances, the various and asunder smart gadgets - will market condition rule or will regulation dominate. stayed tuned kiddies - same bat time same bat channel
JPack
macrumors P6
Doesn't the A19 SoC have RAM on-board the SoC? I believe it does. So it is integrated.
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IDC says that even when the DRAM shortage is resolved, memory prices are not expected to return to 2025 levels, so there could be a permanent shift toward higher-priced smartphones.
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I try to see things in a measured way but this is nonsense. Partly because one should be wary in general whenever anyone says they believe something is permanent from a recent market shock; but more concretely, there have been at least three major boom and bust cycles in DRAM that I have followed. Each time DRAM prices (per KiB/MiB/GiB) eventually drop below the previous floor. I can't say when exactly this will happen--if I could, I would likely be the richest person on Earth. But I'm willing to bet my house that it will be so again. Market forces are just too strong, though they certainly are lagging. And in this case, it appears, it will not only be non-government market forces--it seems the Chinese government is willing to put in the equivalent of tens of billions of US dollars to get home-grown DRAM factories up and running in two years . . . though of course with knowledge and technology that has apparently been stolen. If the AI bubble does pop in the next year or two, 2028 could see a serious oversupply.
IDC says that even when the DRAM shortage is resolved, memory prices are not expected to return to 2025 levels, so there could be a permanent shift toward higher-priced smartphones.
"
I try to see things in a measured way but this is nonsense. Partly because one should be wary in general whenever anyone says they believe something is permanent from a recent market shock; but more concretely, there have been at least three major boom and bust cycles in DRAM that I have followed. Each time DRAM prices (per KiB/MiB/GiB) eventually drop below the previous floor. I can't say when exactly this will happen--if I could, I would likely be the richest person on Earth. But I'm willing to bet my house that it will be so again. Market forces are just too strong, though they certainly are lagging. And in this case, it appears, it will not only be non-government market forces--it seems the Chinese government is willing to put in the equivalent of tens of billions of US dollars to get home-grown DRAM factories up and running in two years . . . though of course with knowledge and technology that has apparently been stolen. If the AI bubble does pop in the next year or two, 2028 could see a serious oversupply.
turbineseaplane
macrumors Penryn
Sorry, but this is a load of bull. Apple loves opportunities to charge even more for their stuff, and this is a prime example
jz0309
macrumors P6
you are correct, there is no retooling in the fab.
Also, "logic processes" and "RAM" processes are incompatible so they never "retool", they are done in different fabs
How "fungible" are memory maker fabs for switching between memory types?
How easy is it for Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, etc. to switch production between memory types -- examples: DDR5 to GDDR7, or DDR5 to HBM. I suspect the DDR5 to GDDR7 example is pretty quick - with downtime measured in hours or low days, and is similar to say TSMC changing production...
semiwiki.com
If the DRAM situation sends phone prices soaring for an extended period of time, I assure you the market (as in the consumer) will find a solution. And it might very well be in the form of much simpler phones with fewer features and far less RAM. Remember, consumers haven’t been chasing AI - Wall Street has.
What I’m most curious about is what happens when the AI bubble bursts.
I don’t know how many of the chip fabs are actually spinning up new production capacity, or whether it’ll be online by then, but even if production capacity hasn’t changed there’s going to be massive numbers of cancelled orders, a sudden change in the type of demand and customers, and a sudden glut of chips when the consumer companies buying them have just finished rearranging products and prices to compensate.
It will, one assumes, be a mess in many different ways.
I don’t know how many of the chip fabs are actually spinning up new production capacity, or whether it’ll be online by then, but even if production capacity hasn’t changed there’s going to be massive numbers of cancelled orders, a sudden change in the type of demand and customers, and a sudden glut of chips when the consumer companies buying them have just finished rearranging products and prices to compensate.
It will, one assumes, be a mess in many different ways.
Analog Kid
macrumors G3
I guess we all use language differently, but that's what I'd mean by retool-- they need new tools. The equipment needs to change, not just the masks. If DRAM was being traded off against AI processors, they'd need to retool their fabs. If DRAM is traded against other DRAM it's different masks on the same tools.
Most iPhone models in recent years have integrated RAM.
My question is: since Apple isn't using the DRAM chips that are in short supply, shouldn't that insulate them from the cost effects of that shortage? Assuming they have reservations at fabs to make the cpu package, that should be sufficient to produce any ram that is part of that package.
What was the release price of the iPhone X in 2025 dollars? What was the release price of the iPhone 17 Pro in 2025 dollars?
How about the 2013 13" MacBook Air? And the M4 13" MacBook Air?
BorisDG
macrumors 6502a
It's PoP (laminated package) type. Yeah, it's not like a M series where it's placed on the substrate next to the die, but it's still not fully integrated into the SoC. The rumors was that A20 will be the first SoC that will have the RAM integrated fully into the die.
JPack
macrumors P6
It's not integrated.
You're asking a fundamentally incorrect question based on the assumption it's integrated. Integrated would mean it's on-die, like an integrated memory controller.
No Apple chip uses integrated DRAM. It's packaged adjacent to or on top of the application processor. Other manufacturers package it on the motherboard or use normal SO/DIMMs. All of those DRAM chips still come from DRAM fabs like Micron, SK, Samsung, CXMT.
Genelec8341
macrumors regular
My 14PM still does everything I need but I'm sick of this damn orphaned lightning connector. The only reason I would buy a newer phone is for USB-C unity in my life. 😆
Apple has already agreed to pay Samsung twice as much for RAM. See today’s story on MR:
Apple Reportedly Agrees to 100% Price Hike on Samsung Memory Chips
Apple has agreed to pay Samsung twice as much for the LPDDR5X memory chips that it needs for ongoing iPhone 17 production, claims a report from Korean outlet Dealsite. According to the report's sources, Apple recently held emergency meetings with Samsung's semiconductor division to negotiate...
www.macrumors.com
Apple may be able to absorb higher RAM prices for a while - maybe longer than most companies - but not forever. Frankly, Apple and other device makers should be looking for a permanent solution to the situation. When the AI bubble bursts and fabs come back to them, they can be told where to go.
Apple should have become more fully vertically integrated where chips are concerned. Should have bought 100% of Intel 6 or 7 years ago then began production of M chips, C modem chips, and N Bluetooth chips in those Intel factories long ago. Should then have started making their own Apple branded RAM and storage chips in those factories as well.
What point is there to have a corp strategy that requires owning a lot but not all of the factors that may disrupt production if you don’t go full in …. so that you don’t get caught when global RAM and storage chip prices skyrocket & supply plummets due to their demand in AI centers?
What point is there to have a corp strategy that requires owning a lot but not all of the factors that may disrupt production if you don’t go full in …. so that you don’t get caught when global RAM and storage chip prices skyrocket & supply plummets due to their demand in AI centers?
JPack
macrumors P6
Intel didn't make DRAM. Intel doesn't have DRAM fabs.
Explore Intel’s history- Farewell to DRAM
Logic fabs
DRAM fabs
NAND fabs
They're all different.
A DRAM fab is very different in terms of equipment, chemical inputs, R&D, economics, etc. compared to a logic fab (TSMC). And a NAND fab is very different from DRAM fabs. Each of these are very different multi-billion dollar businesses.
Intel didn't make DRAM. Intel doesn't have DRAM fabs.
Explore Intel’s history- Farewell to DRAM
timeline.intel.com
Logic fabs
DRAM fabs
NAND fabs
They're all different.
A DRAM fab is very different in terms of equipment, chemical inputs, R&D, economics, etc. compared to a logic fab (TSMC). And a NAND fab is very different from DRAM fabs. Each of these are very different multi-billion dollar businesses.
Churchman’s post about Apple needing to more vertically integrate as far as chips and RAM are concerned still stands. Apple could have bought Intel at a fire sale price a number of years ago - and then made the company into what it wanted and needed. But this is the kind of big, forward thinking that Tim Cook doesn’t do.
OK but don’t burden me with facts and details and truth.Intel didn't make DRAM. Intel doesn't have DRAM fabs.
Explore Intel’s history- Farewell to DRAM
Logic fabs
DRAM fabs
NAND fabs
They're all different.
A DRAM fab is very different in terms of equipment, chemical inputs, R&D, economics, etc. compared to a logic fab (TSMC). And a NAND fab is very different from DRAM fabs. Each of these are very different multi-billion dollar businesses.
I am not speaking about what Intel makes. I am speaking very macro - Apple could have refit factories to build what it needs. Or simply bought Intel to make M/C/N processors so there is less exposure to any Taiwan / China military actions…. And if need be, buy a RAM producer to support that side of the business as well. That is my big picture point.
I am strategic. I pay others to get in the weeds on the details!
August West
macrumors 6502a
My iPhone 13 PM (256GB, 6 GB, A15) was $1199.00 a little over 4 years ago. In 2026 dollars that is $1,387.09
And now Apple has the audacity to want to charge me $1199.00 for a 17PM (256 GB, 12 GB, A19) in 2026.
Truly shows Apple is an evil cooperation and Tim is satan himself. /s
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And? Do you really think this increase is going to be small?
Aren’t they about to launch a £2500 foldable? Lmao