you are overthinking,
you can update
there are 2 things happening at the same time which is leading to confusion. There's matter and there's the new architecture. they're separate things.
Matter: homekit will still talk to the current homekit compatible devices. It will also talk to matter deceives. It will do both at the same time. Matter and homekit are just "languages" that tell controllers and devices how to format commands between themselves. The coming situation is similar to you having a friend who recently learned to speak French. You can still talk to them in English without problems, and they can talk to new friends in French.
I'm not sure if the Eve addition of matter will be optional or forced, but either way, your existing homekit devices will still work. So you could wind up with eve talking matter and hue talking homekit, But from your perspective both will be the same, it's just the background communication between the phone and the device that might change.
Matter is going to expand the devices available to control, Since manufacturers will just have to add matter, and not google and homekit and Alexa controls into their devices.
The other thing that's coming is the home app architecture update. This is where you have to think about updating or not. Currently your home just has a list of devices, and then each controller (phone, HomePod, whatever) talks to your devices. Meaning if you use your HomePod to turn a lamp red, your phone then will ask the lamp what color it is. With the new architecture, you will have a "home controller" (not sure what the official term is) It will centralize control, So one of your hubs will take over control. That hub will also maintain states, and handle all communicaiton to your devices. So if your aTV is the controller, and you ask the HomePod to turn the lamp red, The HomePod will talk to the aTV, and the aTV will talk to the lamp. The aTV will also maintain a "current state" of your devices. On the "old architecture" when you launch the home app, your phone will the polls all of your various devices. On the new architecture, the controller will have all of that information, so the home app should have status for your devices quickly, and not be "no response" for a couple seconds. This should also speed up and make control more reliable.
Unlike matter and homekit playing nicely beside each other, the new and old architecture will not work together. If you want to update to the new architecture, ALL of your apple devices MUST be on the current OS (or at the time of me writing this, the soon to be released OS), or they won't be able to control anything in your home. If you have an older iPhone that can't update to 16.2 it won't be able to control a new architecture home. This also applies to anyone you've shared the home with.
The new architecture update will be voluntary. You'll be given a choice to update home after you've updated iOS on the phone. I'm guessing at some point in a couple years, the old architecture will be retired