Facebook is widely expected to file for its Initial Public Offering sometime in the next two weeks. And it is also expected that it is planning on selling the shares at a price that would value the company at more than $100 billion. Every which way I look at this offering, it seems to me that this is destined to end up as one of the biggest boondoggles ever to appear on Wall Street. Some basic facts: While Facebook has very rapidly grown to have almost a billion users, it simply doesn't have that much in either revenue or profit: Roughly $4 billion revenue, and roughly a billion in profit. In order to be worth that ~$100 billion valuation, Facebook would need to grow its profits at least ten times. I just don't see any way that is going to be possible. Its never going to have 10 billion users (there aren't that many humans on the planet.) And its going to face increasingly stiff competition as it tries to increase the revenue per user it earns. On the one hand, it can't simply splash ads all over its pages without turning off its users. And it can only go so far in using its user data to sell targeted ads, without risking a privacy backlash. And lets also recognize that its going to be competing for online ad dollars against Google - which is hardly a slouch in that department. Some other problems: More online activity is moving into the mobile sphere. An arena Facebook has virtually zero experience making money. In order to rationalize a $100 billion valuation, Facebook is either going to have to provide roughly $20 of "value" to 2 billion users (the theoretical upward limit of global users with access to the technology and spending power necessary) - or its going to have to provide $40 of value to its existing billion users. Last year it earned about $4. We won't even get into the terrible risks inherent in investing in a company where the founder (Zuckerberg) minority shareholding gives him pretty much absolute control forever. Even if he royally screws things up, there is virtually no means whereby shareholders can vote themselves new management to fix the mess. Please give me a reason to believe that the Facebook Emperor isn't walking around naked as a jaybird.