OP,
Black Friday is mostly mediocre sales on stuff you didn't really want or need in the first place. Common tricks are to make bundles that include items you don't want, to hugely understock the actual good deals, and to have manufacturers make a cheap barebones version that closely approximates a more common and expected version.
Apple products in particular don't get much of a discount, if anything at all. In some rare cases there can be a good discount outside of Apple stores, but it's heavily advertised, "limited to stock on hand", and they'll stock somewhere around 5-6 units. That's how they get thousands of people into the store, who then buy something else in order to not walk out empty handed.
I think you are absolutely correct when you say MAYBE you'd get one if you got in line REALLY early. Personally, that's not worth it to me, and I think you are the only one who can answer if it is worth it to you.
As an alternative, generally the best deals for Apple products are in their own refurb store, deals which are sporadic but ongoing. Refurbs for the portable products get a new battery, new case, new packaging and accessories, and the full 1-year warranty. Of course the iPad 4 and Mini aren't on the refurb store yet, but they'll be there soon enough.