Flash DeathWatch: Day 48

[Chupa Chupa]

From today's WSJ:

Full Article

Here is a summary w/ article quotes in Ital. --

Whither Flash?:

"Since the iPad came out we've had a lot of clients say that they just don't want Flash on their sites," said Chantelle Simoes, vice president at Ninth Degree Inc., a design firm in Dana Point, Calif., which has built websites for Sanyo and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

"More and more we are trying to move" away from Flash, said Zach Williams, creative director at Venveo LLC, a Web-design shop in Blacksburg, Va., whose clients include the BBC and U.S. federal agencies.

"The iPhone and iPad have made us take a look at alternatives" to publishing in Flash, said Jordan Corredera, director and general manager of Carnival's online business.

But 2010 reality is:

Flash still has a commanding share of the market, with about 75% of online video using the format.

Most misleading paragraph:

The problem for some companies is that HTML 5 is immature and still years away from broad adoption, said Jeffrey Hammond, an analyst at Forrester Research. It also isn't supported yet by the most widely used Web browsers, such as Microsoft Corp.'s Internet Explorer.

(Exploder has been consistently losing market share for years. Chrome and Safari do support HTML5 and FireFox 4 will when it is released.)

What's at stake (conventional wisdom):

The bulk of Adobe's revenue comes from software like Photoshop and Dreamweaver that are used for designing websites. Developers say they still plan to use these products. In the long term, however, the battle with Apple could create an opening for rivals to Adobe's design software.

(I disagree somewhat because moving away from Flash does not harm any of Adobe's other brands -- if Adobe adapts to the marketplace needs, i.e., providing products with web compatibility across the Internet capable device spectrum.)

 

[antiprotest]

Thanks.

Die, Flash, Die!!!

 

[Batt]

Thanks.

Die, Flash, Die!!!

And another very irritating Adobe product: Adobe Updater.

 

[ukyo229]

I hope flash does not die, but stays the way it is.

Otherwise, all these damn forced-fed adverts which plague even major sites (and even here at macrumors) will just be converted and then I won't have any option but to see them. Especially those horrible ones which expand, play sounds, and all sorts of other annoying **** that you never initiated.

Online video? there isn't a good site with video worth watching. If my friends have something in video they want to share, they send it to ME because it interests ME.
Not a bunch a losers they don't know, who need to watch other peoples lives.

I hate flash, but I don't have to put up with it at all anymore.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

I hope flash does not die, but stays the way it is.

Otherwise, all these damn forced-fed adverts which plague even major sites (and even here at macrumors) will just be converted and then I won't have any option but to see them. Especially those horrible ones which expand, play sounds, and all sorts of other annoying **** that you never initiated.

Online video? there isn't a good site with video worth watching. If my friends have something in video they want to share, they send it to ME because it interests ME.
Not a bunch a losers they don't know, who need to watch other peoples lives.

I hate flash, but I don't have to put up with it at all anymore.

Seems a little short sighted:

1) You seem to know conclusively there won't be plugins or addons like NoScript that will let you block HTML5 ads. Where did you get your time machine? I'd like one too.

2) Flash isn't just video -- I'm sure you are aware. There are many (poorly designed) sites that use Flash for navigation. This needs to go away.

3) As for video, maybe there isn't a good video site -- deemed by you -- right now, but does the preclude there might be one in the future, or are you just opposed to all video? It seems you have a mis-perception about Internet video. It's not all high schoolers banal unedited hijinx. But what about others that do enjoy net shows like TWIT and MacBreak Weekly? Thankfully there is a live non-flash feed, but if not for Ustream we'd be screwed.

 

[Hankster]

I'm going to guess you are not a developer or an owner/director of an IT department. Developing in Flash and HTML5 both have their advantages. There is a reason many sites and almost all streaming video is in Flash.

Blanket statements do no good.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

I'm going to guess you are not a developer or an owner/director of an IT department. Developing in Flash and HTML5 both have their advantages. There is a reason many sites and almost all streaming video is in Flash.

Blanket statements do no good.

Blanket statements? Did you read my initial post? Obviously not. Talk about making blanket comments.

 

[sushi]

And another very irritating Adobe product: Adobe Updater.

I love how it works. Not.

Say you have version 7.1 standard. It tells you that you need to update to 7.1 standard.

Really dumb.

 

[Batt]

I love how it works. Not.

Say you have version 7.1 standard. It tells you that you need to update to 7.1 standard.

Really dumb.

Yeah, I've completely erased it on all my machines, but it still shows up occasionally on my iMac, and I can't find anything more to delete. Except maybe every freakin' Adobe app I have . . .

 

[Gen]

I wish there was an app that could convert flash into html5, via a plug-in for Safari.

 

[mgamber]

The problem still remains. Flash commands 75% of the market and probably will continue to do so since I don't know anyone who's planning on spending a dime to move away from it. On the other side is Jobs (not Apple) who seems to be willing to say anything to justify his attempt to kill Flash. Neither side seems willing to give in the least and who suffers? We do, of course. The world isn't going to fall into line because he spouts a bunch of half-truths and nonsense on a blog, it's time Jobs put up, shut up or left "the vision" to someone who doesn't live in total isolation from the real world.

 

[John Paul]

The problem still remains. Flash commands 75% of the market and probably will continue to do so since I don't know anyone who's planning on spending a dime to move away from it.

Conservative estimates are now 8 million iPads (or more) in the first year of sales alone. Add to that how many umpteen-million iPhones already on the market, plus the fact that it is now almost assured that sometime sooner rather than later, we are going to be seeing CDMA iPhones which means all the people who have held off on buying them because of crappy AT&T will probably be gobbling them up faster than you can imagine. That's a TON...I mean, a TON... of people who are spending significant portions of their time surfing online using devices that cannot read flash.

Any business run by someone with half a brain in their head is going to realize that if they continue to use flash for anything important on their websites, they are excluding all of those potential customers from their website. That's bad business. That's potential revenue that is being shifted from them to their competitors.

On the other side is Jobs (not Apple) who seems to be willing to say anything to justify his attempt to kill Flash. Neither side seems willing to give in the least and who suffers? We do, of course. The world isn't going to fall into line because he spouts a bunch of half-truths and nonsense on a blog, it's time Jobs put up, shut up or left "the vision" to someone who doesn't live in total isolation from the real world.

And the floppy disk drive had a lot of supporters when Apple decided to drop that as well. Times change. Either you change with the times, or else you get left behind. It's not a matter of the world falling in line with Jobs. Jobs simply has looked at the issue of flash versus the other options out there and decided upon a course of action for Apple. Others can fall in line or not as they see fit. But right now for someone who runs any sort of website, there is no negative to dropping flash. But with every day that passes, there is a huge negative to tenaciously holding on to flash rather than moving to better, more modern options.

2009 - 37 million iPhones & iPod touches sold
2010 - estimates of 36 million iPhones alone sold (and that is presuming it remains AT&T only; if it goes to Verizon or Sprint, God only knows what the numbers will be)
2010 - conservative estimates of 8 million iPads sold

If you were a web programmer, would you really want to be the guy who has to explain to your boss (or your client or whatever) why it is you are intentionally excluding 80 million plus potential viewers, just because you are too lazy to code the site in something other than flash? I know I wouldn't.

 

[scotty56]

Flash will be around for a while. I would love to be able to view the entirety of the web, but we all have to wait longer.

Hopefully flash wendered sites can create a way to enjoy all the "mouse use" features on a touch display. Could someone actually tell me how and if this is possible?

 

[emptyCup]

Flash commands 75% of the market and probably will continue to do so

Flash commands 75% of the computer market but 0% of the increasingly more important mobile market.

Right now, the only Adobe can kill Flash. With Android and WebOS committed to supporting Flash, Adobe needs to demonstrate a fully functional mobile Flash very soon. If it can't then the pressure of 100 million and growing users who can't see Flash will force even the holdouts to convert their code.

 

[Battlestar]

The other tablets comming out this year will all support flash, so I don't see it going away anytime soon.

 

[srl7741]

This is my kinda thread. keeping watch.

I know....... It's not going away but I can sure wish it did.

 

[Streethawk]

The other tablets comming out this year will all support flash, so I don't see it going away anytime soon.

Vaporware, dont believe it until you see it.

 

[felt.]

Yeah, I've completely erased it on all my machines, but it still shows up occasionally on my iMac, and I can't find anything more to delete. Except maybe every freakin' Adobe app I have . . .

lingon is an easy to use app to take control of exactly what services run (or don't) on your system..such as adobe updater

 

[dstar]

Well, Youporn is converting their content to be compatible with the iPad if that means anything.

Not exactly VHS vs. Betamax but interesting.

 

[Beau10]

Most misleading paragraph:[/U][/B]

The problem for some companies is that HTML 5 is immature and still years away from broad adoption, said Jeffrey Hammond, an analyst at Forrester Research. It also isn't supported yet by the most widely used Web browsers, such as Microsoft Corp.'s Internet Explorer.

(Exploder has been consistently losing market share for years. Chrome and Safari do support HTML5 and FireFox 4 will when it is released.)

Explorer 9 will support it as well. The adoption of the technology in newer browsers isn't the issue, it's that a large chunk of non-tech people simply use what was packaged with the OS and are resistant to change. For instance, take my 58 year old mother. I've tried getting her to use Firefox, Chrome, heck even IE8 over the years. She still uses IE6.

Granted, one can't discount the effect of suddenly having websites break forcing people to upgrade to the latest and greatest. But as someone who does this for a living I can tell you straight up it's firmly embedded in our heads that we have to support legacy product, and still in this day and age if your site does not work properly with IE6 your marketing dept. will sh*t a brick.

If for new projects people are requesting flash-less sites then bravo, but I have to think most sensible new projects requiring a highly interactive front-end will probably use both flash and html5, toggling based on browser.

Flash will die, but those expecting it to happen in the next year or two shouldn't get their hopes up.

 

[iRabbit]

If you were a web programmer, would you really want to be the guy who has to explain to your boss (or your client or whatever) why it is you are intentionally excluding 80 million plus potential viewers, just because you are too lazy to code the site in something other than flash? I know I wouldn't.

Well said. I am an art director for a fairly large company and made the decision two years ago to move most of our sites away from flash. Where it remains, it is "fluff" not important content. One of our divisions insists on developing its own website and just spend a butt-load with an agency on a site that is not only loaded with flash, but looks like crap on anything other than IE. VERY bad. I'll be happy to point my finger at the person to blame when it comes up in a future board meeting... And I'll be glad to say that all the sites under my control fully function on mobile browsers.

 

[antiprotest]

Well said. I am an art director for a fairly large company and made the decision two years ago to move most of our sites away from flash. Where it remains, it is "fluff" not important content. One of our divisions insists on developing its own website and just spend a butt-load with an agency on a site that is not only loaded with flash, but looks like crap on anything other than IE. VERY bad. I'll be happy to point my finger at the person to blame when it comes up in a future board meeting... And I'll be glad to say that all the sites under my control fully function on mobile browsers.

Good post.

 

[Battlestar]

Vaporware, dont believe it until you see it.

The HP Slate with the Palm Web OS won't be vaporware. HP has $$$ riding on this. I know that they don't make anything that is good besides printers but we will have to wait and see.

Nvidia also has a tablet running android that does flash.

Maybe Apple will have to give in and work with Adobe on the next flash version?