A few thoughts:
1) Flash itself is not the problem... but the implementation sure can be. Adobe's supposedly working with the ARM cpu makers to add hardware support.
I've said this at least a hundred times, but the Flash fanbois never seem to "get" it.
If the implementation
is the only problem, then make Flash run right on OS X
first -- on Intel processors. And by "run right", I mean not approaching 100% CPU utilization. Then move on to more challenging hardware like the limited processor power of ARM CPUs.
To your last point, I run FlashBlock on both Firefox and Safari. I navigate Apple's site on a regular basis and never see the
f or [Flash] placeholders anywhere on apple.com. If Apple can put together an entire multimedia website using web standards without any Flash, then it obviously can be done.
What Adobe is selling when they say that Flash is a defacto web standard is a world where web developers have to write separate non-Flash mobile versions of their websites for the handheld market (and obviously this includes more than just the iPhone). Remember that
video acceleration already exists on the mobile handsets like the iPhone and Pre use. Adobe chooses not to leverage that because it doesn't trap developers into their proprietary platform.
In the interest of disclosure, I use a fair amount of Adobe software (Lr, Ps, Elements, etc.) because the final output of those programs is content anyone can use. I avoid Flash like the plague because it restricts who can see the content I create. And it runs like dog **** on OS X and mobile platforms. This whole "just wait until Adobe optimizes Flash for x" mantra has been going on for a while with no actual progress IRL. We used to call those kinds of empty promises vaporware.