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Flash Shortage due to iPod and iPhone?

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Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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A report by the DramExchange.com indicates that Apple's iPod and iPhone could use up to 25% of the world's production of NAND Flash chips this quarter.

This, along with production delays amongst NAND Flash manufacturers could contribute to shortages and rising prices.

NAND Flash supplies and pricing could also affect rumored plans for a NAND-flash based subnotebook from Apple - which was last pinpointed for release in late 2007/early 2008.


Article Link
 
Article Link
https://www.macrumors.com/2007/07/19/flash-shortage-due-to-ipod-and-iphone/
wow that's pretty impressive for one company, I suppose it's because they use such high capacities compared to cameras...
 
25% of all flash memory in the world? Come on! Yes, iPods and iPhones are selling out the door, but 25% of world demand? Did Apple sell 5 million iPhones so far, 10 million. Not likely.

This sounds like a BS press release from an industry that is seeing intense pricing pressure. They are looking to increase those prices and one way to do it is to try to create the impression of constrained supply.

If Apple is currently using 1/4 of all the worlds supply, then it's REALLY going to be an interesting earnings report next week.

Smells like the flash memory boys are looking to drive up prices to me.
 
If this is correct, the shortage was caused by sales of these successful products, and the result may be rising prices of flash chips, which would produce higher costs to produce iPods and iPhones. Therefore, if we favor lower prices, we should tell our friends not to buy iPods or iPhones!

I doubt I'll be able to do that!
 
Economics

You know what makes prices go down? One of the many things is mass production. I'm relatively certain that all of the factories making flash chips in the world are not producing at capacity, so any price increase will be minimal and temporary.
 
lookmark said:
I think that all-flash full-size iPod (32/64/128GB) is looking increasingly likely.
Click to expand...

At the current price of ~$6 a GB, I see that highly doubtful. 32GB = $192 128GB = $768

This would be a nice time to open up some new NAND factory I would assume.
 
Excelent for Apple in multiple ways:
Their agreements with Flsh man is working
Their price for memory is not affected
They are selling a lot
Their competitor prices are going up and their ability to deliver is being affected.
 
Remember Apple got in line early and plopped down some megabucks for a Flash supply awhile ago, so them eating a significant portion of their supplier volume isn't too odd.

But the future Flash products sure will be constrained.
 
It would be hard to believe if apple could pull off a sufficiently sized
flash drive laptop in the next 6 months, given this.

(Plus, I imagine apple will also want to go firewire with the shuffle soon too.
And the aTV can't be too far behind, etc etc)

Altogether, their demand for flash memory must be astronomical right now,
and can only figure to get worse for the next year or so.

If yer buyin a digital camera chip or a cell phone flash chip this fall/xmas,
the price might be way up depending on which type of chip it takes!
 
It might be helpful to view this article in terms of "timing". Apple has just ramped the largest new gadget release in a long time which is flash based. It just dropped a couple of weeks ago. Of course flash inventories are constrained. The ramp is still occuring and Apple has stated they intend to sell 10 million of these things in about a years time. They have already sold between a million and 1.3 million of them by some estimates. Flash production is constrained, so it can withstand steady state sales, but not sudden large sales as occured with the release of YA iPod Nano and the iPhone in short order. Apple is hoarding flash with the strategic move of prepaid purchase contracts which floats the price down as sales prices drop. This may simply defer the timing of that drop.

Rocketman
 
Good. Maybe this will make Apple think twice about going all flash. Granted up til now that concept has been purely rumor but anything that keeps such an idea in the realm of rumors I'm all for.:)
 
If Apple is using this much Flash memory maybe they should think about opening their own factory and start making the chips themselves. Then they have better control of pricing and availability.
 
This is not the first time that this excuse has been used: I seem to remember that a similar claim was made regarding Apple's consumption of Flash memory about 18 months ago.

I must admit that the stat is a little too extreme to believe, but I'll ask the question that occurred to me back then; does the ipod Nano, Shuffle and iPhone use single flash cards, or do they consists of several smaller ones? If it's the latter, then it makes some sense to me; but still!
 
jacobj said:
This is not the first time that this excuse has been used: I seem to remember that a similar claim was made regarding Apple's consumption of Flash memory about 18 months ago.

I must admit that the stat is a little too extreme to believe, but I'll ask the question that occurred to me back then; does the ipod Nano, Shuffle and iPhone use single flash cards, or do they consists of several smaller ones? If it's the latter, then it makes some sense to me; but still!
Click to expand...

The Shuffle uses single flash cards, while the Nano uses 2 flash cards. I don't know about the iPhone, but I think someone commented on it using 1 flash card.. I am not sure though.
 
davidmyers said:
It would be hard to believe if apple could pull off a sufficiently sized
flash drive laptop in the next 6 months, given this.

(Plus, I imagine apple will also want to go firewire with the shuffle soon too.
And the aTV can't be too far behind, etc etc)

Altogether, their demand for flash memory must be astronomical right now,
and can only figure to get worse for the next year or so.

If yer buyin a digital camera chip or a cell phone flash chip this fall/xmas,
the price might be way up depending on which type of chip it takes!
Click to expand...

Firewire Shuffle... yeah.... ok.... I take it your drunk or really tired or don't know much about Apple. Either way, welcome to MacRumors, try not to take anything personally. :) You may want to read up on Apple in the Guides here.

Edit: I am starting to think you were trying to be sarcastic?
 
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