Ford Announces Plans For Fully Autonomous Self-Driving Car By 2021

[smacrumon]

Countries like China, which majority of power station are coal power station. Regardless of EV or not, fossil fuels were burnt anyway.

Also Telus still uses same component as traditional combustion car, like seats, tires etc. Where do you think rubber and plastic come from? Fissile fuel. It is not like human won't need fossils fuel when EV become a thing.

Also, i highly doubt EV will be the mainstream by 2021. Unless there is revolution on battery technology, people will opt in for combustion engine. I will not buy EV if the range is not near where I get from combustion engine (my Corrola gets around 650km range. Good luck on getting these rang with EV).

Also price will be the factor. EV is still too expensive. I highly doubt it will be significantly cheaper.

Really. It is not like all the sudden EV will make our sky bluer. People will suddenly stop relying on fossil fuel and our manufacturing processes will still harm the environment. Unless we complete stop using anything that is made using fossil fuel and fossil fuel by products, I don't think EV will do much.
[doublepost=1471435009][/doublepost]

And stop using combustion engine. Because by 2021, people will hate combustion engine.

I still don't trust fully automated driving or piloting. It is like accident waiting to happen. I still believe human intervation is need sometime, when AI failed (and you know AI or any software will have bugs and will fail sometime). When AI failed, what do you do when there is no human?

There are so many factor involving airplan. Temperatures changes, weather. Anything little thing, like ice blocking censor will cause AI misjudgment. When AI do that, accident will happen.

Well considering 400,000 orders have been placed for a Tesla Model 3, due end of next year, mainstream acceptance will probably be before 2021. $35000 is not expensive when you factor in consumables for old style vehicles and gasoline fuel which add up to incredible amounts.
So you drive 650km in one stretch? I don't think so.
Stats state humans fail at driving more than autonomous vehicles. Autonomous are safer, that's the whole aim as well.

 

[definitive]

Is this a scheme to get early investors on board, or what?

"We're currently working on a miracle pill which will prevent you from aging, and have plans on releasing it some time in 3592. Invest now in this great opportunity!"

 

[MacsRgr8]

The whole self driving car concept could come crashing down in a series of consumer liability lawsuits.

Keep in mind that not every technical innovation kept with the market. Many phased out as a fad or the consumer harm of the product outweighed the benefit.

Indeed.
Back in the 50's, people said that by the year 2000 people would step into their flying cars....

Talking about flying: Look at Concorde. When that came out most assumed the future of aviation was supersonic flight.

It usually boils down to one thing: what are we prepared to pay.

 

[Gasu E.]

I'll take one of these if it drives me all the way from Canada to Florida for my family vacation!
[doublepost=1471431841][/doublepost]

Where do you think electricity comes from, or what electric vehicle batteries are made off? Flowers?

Electricity can come from a variety of sources:

- polluting coal or oil-burning plants
- less polluting gas-burning plants
- nuclear plants
- hydro
- wind
- solar cells

etc.

Even in the case of fossil fuel plants, greater economies to scale make pollution-reduction methods more economical than for individual ICEs.

 

[Col4bin]

And this is exactly why Tesla has repeated again and again it wasn't perfect and drivers had to still actually stay alert to avoid that.

With unfortunate examples as we saw last spring, it's going to be hard for company's at first to pitch to mainstream consumers a "fully autonomous" vehicle that is 100% reliable in all situations—buuuut, you might still want to pay attention to the road just in case? And, compounded by Ford saying that they don't quite know how to give control back to the driver in these instances that can occur in the fraction of a second. Wow, what a wishy-washy message. I can't believe government regulatory committees have allowed this technology on the open roads when these types of problems exist. What if that driver had hit a school bus and not a semi? Who's looking out for the safety of the other drivers and their passengers out there? Yay rushed technology (pffff fart.)

 

[TallManNY]

Earlier you all capped "fact check". Maybe you should. Understanding that your quote is just your opinion, it's definitely not based on any facts. It's emphatic and declarative, but in no way factual. I can do it too. 2021 is less than 5 years away. People are still going to primarily drive ICE cars. There will be more hybrids and EV's, but the primary conveyance will still be ICE.

Five years from now people will be primarily driving ICE cars (because older ones on the road), but will they be primarily buying them? I doubt it. If Tesla is to be believed, they are coming out with a $35,000 car in 2017 which will perform like a BMW 3 series. I don't see how ICE cars will even be able to compete with that in 2017 much less the cars that will be available in 2021.

 

[theluggage]

Already posted one vaguely pro-EV post, but so much nonsense from both sides of the argument, so...

Well considering 400,000 orders have been placed for a Tesla Model 3

Actually, no - 400,000 people have paid a returnable $1000 deposit to (effectively) register interest in ordering a Model 3. At some stage, they'll be asked to place their order (and find out what the optional extras are) - which could be a sticky spot for Tesla if lots of people ask for their $1k back. Think of a number for the drop-out rate - who knows - but there's a big difference between stumping up $1000 (returnable) on a whim and stumping up $35k+ for real.

$35000 is not expensive when you factor in consumables for old style vehicles and gasoline fuel which add up to incredible amounts.

$35000 is only "not expensive" when you compare it with BMWs, Mercs, Audis etc. Otherwise, its still a heck of a lot of money for a car - you can probably get something perfectly good, new, from a less-prestigious brand for half that price & you need to save a heck of a lot of gas to make up that difference. Not saying that there isn't a market for $35k cars, but you have to decide what you mean by mainstream (...and don't fall for the "average price" trick, which is dragged up by a small number of very expensive sales - if you want to guess what proportion of cars will be EV in the future you want the median price i.e. what do half of drivers pay). A lot will depend on what the specs of that $35k model are and what the minimum sensible options package costs... How much for the power lead? (Also, currently there's a lot of government rebates to be have, but they'll evaporate as soon as sales start picking up...)

So you drive 650km in one stretch? I don't think so.

I think I did 1000km once... never again. However, that's not how it works.

The Telsa 3 offers a 215 mile (350 km) range. I've certainly driven further than that with only short comfort breaks (no time to re-charge). I've got a 180 mile drive that I normally do with a single coffee break, and a 300 mile drive on which I'd normally take 1 longer break and one or two brief ones.

But hey, OK, lets have a relaxed life and stop for 40 minutes recharge every 215 miles.

...except that's not every 215 miles, because that range is dependent on temperature, driving conditions, night/day and the phase of the moon. Even if the route is well endowed with Superchargers they're not gonna be every 5 miles so you'll have to err on the side of caution - so I'd guess you'd end up stopping every 150 miles or so.

...and then you have to consider your destination: can you charge there? Do you want to have to go looking for a charger as soon as you arrive - or do you need to add another stop to your trip so you arrive with a half-full battery. Looks like its time to start choosing your hotels based on charger availability, and your friends and relatives based on whether they have a driveway with accessible power.

...finally, we're talking about an "affordable" Tesla with a 215 mile range that doesn't exist yet (or twice as much cash for a Tesla S with a 250 mile range). Get something affordable like a Nissan Leaf with a 120-150 mile "theoretical" range and probably an 80-100 mile "reliable" range and you're gonna be stopping at every service station for a top-up.

So, anyway, with a bit of logistics, the Tesla would be workable for that 180 mile trip, it could do the 300 mile trip (subject to well-placed chargers - the last 100 miles could be iffy) - anything cheaper like the leaf is just not practical for such trips. ... or I could just hop in my ICE, which can be refilled in 5 minutes at any service station without giving a thought to my fuel stop strategy. Its not simply the range of ICEs that is unbeatable - its the near-instant and universally available refuelling.

The reality is that current EVs are great for day trips within the range of an overnight charge - but for a longer trip you either need to (a) get the top-of-the-range Tesla with a 250 mile range, (b) have a second ICE car for long trips or (c) rent a car for long trips.

...which is a bit hard to swallow when you're paying 50% or more over the price of your ICE car that can do everything.

Of course, if you've got a nice driveway/garage for recharging and live in a 2-car family - and/or are an American who never drives further than your local airport (because everywhere else is 1000 miles away) then EVs are perfect, and that's not a market to be sneezed at.

(Also, there are evidently a few leasing deals in the US where they all but pay you to take the car in order to make some state quota for EV sales - nice if you can get them but not available to most).

Stats state humans fail at driving more than autonomous vehicles. Autonomous are safer, that's the whole aim as well.

On which of the various production autonomous cars that only exist in the imaginations of Tesla, Google, Apple, Ford et. al. do you base that assertion?

The nearest thing available to date - Tesla's Autopilot - isn't safe: we know that not because of a couple of well publicised crashes, but because Tesla feels the need to put out a disclaimer that says, effectively, you shouldn't treat it as autonomous - which is dumb because as soon as a system lets you take your hands off the steering wheel, the average moron in the street is gonna crack open a soda and start tweeting (its hard enough stopping them doing that with regular cars).

I agree that long term autonomous cars will probably be safer than human drivers - the problem is how we get from here to there, because human nature makes anything less than full, reliable autonomy an accident waiting to happen. It would actually be easier if, overnight, everything went autonomous so the computers didn't have to deal with the nuts behind other car's wheels. I don't think that's likely...

 

[TallManNY]

The reality is that current EVs are great for day trips within the range of an overnight charge - but for a longer trip you either need to (a) get the top-of-the-range Tesla with a 250 mile range, (b) have a second ICE car for long trips or (c) rent a car for long trips.

...which is a bit hard to swallow when you're paying 50% or more over the price of your ICE car that can do everything.

Of course, if you've got a nice driveway/garage for recharging and live in a 2-car family - and/or are an American who never drives further than your local airport (because everywhere else is 1000 miles away) then EVs are perfect, and that's not a market to be sneezed at.

(Also, there are evidently a few leasing deals in the US where they all but pay you to take the car in order to make some state quota for EV sales - nice if you can get them but not available to most).

Nice post. But as you say the two car family is not a market to be sneezed at. Since the average U.S. family has 2.3 cars (like kids!) it is actually the main market. A household owning only one car is actually less common than a household that owns two or more. And these cars are going to get better. By 2021 I really don't think there will be many sacrifices. And if you are just a single car household, you may find that there are lots of used ICE cars available as they get dumped for environmentally friendly and high performing electric vehicles.

 

[smacrumon]

Already posted one vaguely pro-EV post, but so much nonsense from both sides of the argument, so...



Actually, no - 400,000 people have paid a returnable $1000 deposit to (effectively) register interest in ordering a Model 3. At some stage, they'll be asked to place their order (and find out what the optional extras are) - which could be a sticky spot for Tesla if lots of people ask for their $1k back. Think of a number for the drop-out rate - who knows - but there's a big difference between stumping up $1000 (returnable) on a whim and stumping up $35k+ for real.



$35000 is only "not expensive" when you compare it with BMWs, Mercs, Audis etc. Otherwise, its still a heck of a lot of money for a car - you can probably get something perfectly good, new, from a less-prestigious brand for half that price & you need to save a heck of a lot of gas to make up that difference. Not saying that there isn't a market for $35k cars, but you have to decide what you mean by mainstream (...and don't fall for the "average price" trick, which is dragged up by a small number of very expensive sales - if you want to guess what proportion of cars will be EV in the future you want the median price i.e. what do half of drivers pay). A lot will depend on what the specs of that $35k model are and what the minimum sensible options package costs... How much for the power lead? (Also, currently there's a lot of government rebates to be have, but they'll evaporate as soon as sales start picking up...)



I think I did 1000km once... never again. However, that's not how it works.

The Telsa 3 offers a 215 mile (350 km) range. I've certainly driven further than that with only short comfort breaks (no time to re-charge). I've got a 180 mile drive that I normally do with a single coffee break, and a 300 mile drive on which I'd normally take 1 longer break and one or two brief ones.

But hey, OK, lets have a relaxed life and stop for 40 minutes recharge every 215 miles.

...except that's not every 215 miles, because that range is dependent on temperature, driving conditions, night/day and the phase of the moon. Even if the route is well endowed with Superchargers they're not gonna be every 5 miles so you'll have to err on the side of caution - so I'd guess you'd end up stopping every 150 miles or so.

...and then you have to consider your destination: can you charge there? Do you want to have to go looking for a charger as soon as you arrive - or do you need to add another stop to your trip so you arrive with a half-full battery. Looks like its time to start choosing your hotels based on charger availability, and your friends and relatives based on whether they have a driveway with accessible power.

...finally, we're talking about an "affordable" Tesla with a 215 mile range that doesn't exist yet (or twice as much cash for a Tesla S with a 250 mile range). Get something affordable like a Nissan Leaf with a 120-150 mile "theoretical" range and probably an 80-100 mile "reliable" range and you're gonna be stopping at every service station for a top-up.

So, anyway, with a bit of logistics, the Tesla would be workable for that 180 mile trip, it could do the 300 mile trip (subject to well-placed chargers - the last 100 miles could be iffy) - anything cheaper like the leaf is just not practical for such trips. ... or I could just hop in my ICE, which can be refilled in 5 minutes at any service station without giving a thought to my fuel stop strategy. Its not simply the range of ICEs that is unbeatable - its the near-instant and universally available refuelling.

The reality is that current EVs are great for day trips within the range of an overnight charge - but for a longer trip you either need to (a) get the top-of-the-range Tesla with a 250 mile range, (b) have a second ICE car for long trips or (c) rent a car for long trips.

...which is a bit hard to swallow when you're paying 50% or more over the price of your ICE car that can do everything.

Of course, if you've got a nice driveway/garage for recharging and live in a 2-car family - and/or are an American who never drives further than your local airport (because everywhere else is 1000 miles away) then EVs are perfect, and that's not a market to be sneezed at.

(Also, there are evidently a few leasing deals in the US where they all but pay you to take the car in order to make some state quota for EV sales - nice if you can get them but not available to most).



On which of the various production autonomous cars that only exist in the imaginations of Tesla, Google, Apple, Ford et. al. do you base that assertion?

The nearest thing available to date - Tesla's Autopilot - isn't safe: we know that not because of a couple of well publicised crashes, but because Tesla feels the need to put out a disclaimer that says, effectively, you shouldn't treat it as autonomous - which is dumb because as soon as a system lets you take your hands off the steering wheel, the average moron in the street is gonna crack open a soda and start tweeting (its hard enough stopping them doing that with regular cars).

I agree that long term autonomous cars will probably be safer than human drivers - the problem is how we get from here to there, because human nature makes anything less than full, reliable autonomy an accident waiting to happen. It would actually be easier if, overnight, everything went autonomous so the computers didn't have to deal with the nuts behind other car's wheels. I don't think that's likely...

Ummmm??? 400,000 people have paid a deposit with the intention to buy, what don't you get about that? I sign up with my email address when I'm registering my interest, but I pay a $1000 deposit when I'm committing to buy a new Tesla Model 3.

Many times Tesla Motors have said that even the base $35,000 car will be a brilliant car, industry leading in its class, no need for optional extras.

$35,000 is not an expensive electric car. It is a highly smart if you're keen to get rid of being tied to a gasoline pump and all that junk under the hood that needs to be refilled for the life of the car. Waste of time and money those old gas guzzlers are.

A lot of disruption is on the way for the old players like Ford and GM. Scary times ahead for the management at those places. Fortunately, all their workers will have better jobs at a better place like Tesla or other electric vehicle manufacturers, maybe even Apple.

1000 km in one go? That's 10 hours of non stop driving at 100 km/h. Not only is that highly dangerous, the act of continuously driving for 10 hours straight is irresponsible not to mention very expensive on gas fuel! Most people stop for lunch, dinner, breakfast, and umm, sleep ZZZ zzz ZZZ zzz ZZZ zzz ZZZ zzz ZZZ.

You're inventing non issues here. It almost reads as big oil propaganda!
- There is no range issue, it has nothing to do with the phase of the moon - a ridiculous argument you've made.
- Charging is simple, the car locates the charging stations, you can charge at home.
- What's the problem exactly? There are no problems with electric cars. There are however huge problems with gas guzzler internal combustion engine cars and they are so pricey over their life time as well! Ripped off on a number of fronts with old gas guzzler cars.

I get it, you are angry. I'm sorry. Move aside, take another 1000 km non stop drive in your gas guzzler and let the Tesla Model 3 and other electric vehicles through.

 

[C DM]

Ummmm??? 400,000 people have paid a deposit with the intention to buy, what don't you get about that? I sign up with my email address when I'm registering my interest, but I pay a $1000 deposit when I'm committing to buy a new Tesla Model 3.

Many times Tesla Motors have said that even the base $35,000 car will be a brilliant car, industry leading in its class, no need for optional extras.

$35,000 is not an expensive electric car. It is a highly smart if you're keen to get rid of being tied to a gasoline pump and all that junk under the hood that needs to be refilled for the life of the car. Waste of time and money those old gas guzzlers are.

A lot of disruption is on the way for the old players like Ford and GM. Scary times ahead for the management at those places. Fortunately, all their workers will have better jobs at a better place like Tesla or other electric vehicle manufacturers, maybe even Apple.

1000 km in one go? That's 10 hours of non stop driving at 100 km/h. Not only is that highly dangerous, the act of continuously driving for 10 hours straight is irresponsible not to mention very expensive on gas fuel! Most people stop for lunch, dinner, breakfast, and umm, sleep ZZZ zzz ZZZ zzz ZZZ zzz ZZZ zzz ZZZ.

You're inventing non issues here. It almost reads as big oil propaganda!
- There is no range issue, it has nothing to do with the phase of the moon - a ridiculous argument you've made.
- Charging is simple, the car locates the charging stations, you can charge at home.
- What's the problem exactly? There are no problems with electric cars. There are however huge problems with gas guzzler internal combustion engine cars and they are so pricey over their life time as well! Ripped off on a number of fronts with old gas guzzler cars.

I get it, you are angry. I'm sorry. Move aside, take another 1000 km non stop drive in your gas guzzler and let the Tesla Model 3 and other electric vehicles through.

To be fair, commitment is commitment, it doesn't mean something will actually happen. There's about as much space between commitment and actual follow through as there is between interest and commitment.

And, again, to be fair, sure, $35,000 is not exactly expensive when it comes to an electric car (in today's world), but, as was mentioned, it is in the expensive side of things when it comes to a car when plenty of sub-$20,000 cars are constantly bought and are on the road, for example.

 

[smacrumon]

To be fair, commitment is commitment, it doesn't mean something will actually happen. There's about as much space between commitment and actual follow through as there is between interest and commitment.

And, again, to be fair, sure, $35,000 is not exactly expensive when it comes to an electric car (in today's world), but, as was mentioned, it is in the expensive side of things when it comes to a car when plenty of sub-$20,000 cars are constantly bought and are on the road, for example.

Sure, and an Apple preorder can be cancelled as well. What is your point?
Yes, and plenty of sub-$20,000 gas guzzler cars end up costing twice as much when you factor in all the consumables and fuel they take.
It's a no brainer. If this Ford vehicle is not fully electric, it will be defunct on arrival. The world is moving to electric cars. Get on board or be left behind in a world of ongoing payments of fuel.

 

[Alenore]

With unfortunate examples as we saw last spring, it's going to be hard for company's at first to pitch to mainstream consumers a "fully autonomous" vehicle that is 100% reliable in all situations—buuuut, you might still want to pay attention to the road just in case? And, compounded by Ford saying that they don't quite know how to give control back to the driver in these instances that can occur in the fraction of a second. Wow, what a wishy-washy message. I can't believe government regulatory committees have allowed this technology on the open roads when these types of problems exist. What if that driver had hit a school bus and not a semi? Who's looking out for the safety of the other drivers and their passengers out there? Yay rushed technology (pffff fart.)

Except they don't sell it, right now, as a 100% autonomous vehicle, but as a vehicle with assisted driving. Be it AutoSteer or any other function it proposes, they mention you should keep your hands on the wheel and be alert.
I do agree the name "Autopilot" is retarded, though.

 

[C DM]

Sure, and an Apple preorder can be cancelled as well. What is your point?
Yes, and plenty of sub-$20,000 gas guzzler cars end up costing twice as much when you factor in all the consumables and fuel they take.
It's a no brainer. If this Ford vehicle is not fully electric, it will be defunct on arrival. The world is moving to electric cars. Get on board or be left behind in a world of ongoing payments of fuel.

The point there is that "orders" like that are not quite actual orders just yet, and aren't actual sales either. It doesn't necessarily say much something about "mainstream acceptance" one way or another as much as it might say about "mainstream interest".

And whatever the lifetime costs might be for the "gas guzzlers" seems a lot of people are still more than interested in getting them year after year, even with hybrid and electric vehicles (even the more "affordable" ones in the $35,000 range) being available. People even still buy a lot of cars that don't get all that good of a gas mileage even when similar ones exist with better (and sometimes much better) gas mileage.

What I mentioned had nothing to do with what Ford is doing and what their car might or might not be like, simply comments on those two aspects of what has been brought up (the supposed "orders" and what they supposedly might or might not imply, and the price tag of electric vehicles and how that is perceived by most typical car buyers).

 

[69Mustang]

Five years from now people will be primarily driving ICE cars (because older ones on the road), but will they be primarily buying them? I doubt it. If Tesla is to be believed, they are coming out with a $35,000 car in 2017 which will perform like a BMW 3 series. I don't see how ICE cars will even be able to compete with that in 2017 much less the cars that will be available in 2021.

I have to disagree with the second portion of your prediction. There are several factors running against your prediction. The largest factor is the price of oil. As long as oil is cheap, people will continue to buy SUV's, CUV's and trucks. They will also continue to buy passenger cars as well. There's also the matter of the huge amount of cars available for 10-15K less than 35K. I can't readily find the info, but I would be willing to bet the number of cars sold for under 25K exceeds the number of cars sold for over 35K. ICE cars will continue to compete because until EV becomes more profitable for the manufacturer and less expensive for the consumer, the impetus to buy an EV is going to be on the environmentally conscious. Plus we're going to need new and better battery tech. There are many other factors as well. About the Model 3 arriving at the end of 2017... If that actually happens, I will eat my hat. It will be delayed. If history is an indicator, it will be delayed more than once. That's a good thing. Musk needs to get it right. Unlike the rushed (and still delayed) Model X, he needs to make sure the Model 3's performance and reliability can meet the hype. Otherwise, he'll set EV's back. In less than 5 years I think there will be more hybrids and EV's but ICE will still be the primary seller. The auto industry moves at a snails pace.

 

[CFreymarc]

Indeed.
Back in the 50's, people said that by the year 2000 people would step into their flying cars....

Talking about flying: Look at Concorde. When that came out most assumed the future of aviation was supersonic flight.

It usually boils down to one thing: what are we prepared to pay.

... and is there any consumer liability? While self driving cars are all the rage of high-margin car sellers, this whole thing could go the way of the Edsel and the Corvair if the marketing or manufacturing is not done right. Self driving cars are far from being a done deal.
[doublepost=1471483192][/doublepost]

Five years from now people will be primarily driving ICE cars (because older ones on the road), but will they be primarily buying them? I doubt it. If Tesla is to be believed, they are coming out with a $35,000 car in 2017 which will perform like a BMW 3 series. I don't see how ICE cars will even be able to compete with that in 2017 much less the cars that will be available in 2021.

Entire markets can have a seismic shift with the rhetoric you are quoting having no meaning. Here are a few "what if's" that would throw your predictions out the window.

* oil fields or oil refineries can open up driving the cost of gasoline down to below a dollar a gallon
* Global Warning advocates could be prosecuted for Securities Fraud based on fraudulent research data
* the price of Lithium and other heavy metals for car batteries can skyrocket due to a third world political instability
* automotive manufactures see large class-action consumer liability lawsuits concerning self driving cars
* insurance companies refuse to issue policies or have very high premiums for electric or self driving cars
* the UAW (United Auto Workers) moves into electric car companies, driving up the manufacturer labor cost
* a major wireless virus hops from smart car to smart car creating a PR disaster
* large segments of the mass market refuses to purchase due to a social stigma of driving electric cars

Work a year at a time, crystal ball gazers are stuck in carnivals and beach-side amusement parks for a reason.

 

[Col4bin]

Except they don't sell it, right now, as a 100% autonomous vehicle, but as a vehicle with assisted driving. Be it AutoSteer or any other function it proposes, they mention you should keep your hands on the wheel and be alert.
I do agree the name "Autopilot" is retarded, though.

Honestly—what the hell is "assisted driving" anyway? What a silly thing. Why and how is that any real benefit to the consumer besides a coy marketing term? If you take your eyes off the road and let the car do the driving at any point, which is the main idea that these companies are rushing to market, there's going to be problems.

 

[C DM]

Honestly—what the hell is "assisted driving" anyway? What a silly thing. Why and how is that any real benefit to the consumer besides a coy marketing term? If you take your eyes off the road and let the car do the driving at any point, which is the main idea that these companies are rushing to market, there's going to be problems.

It's basically something to help and work in the background really to avoid things that a human might mess up or not react fast enough or appropriately enough to. The driving should still basically take place as normal with this just being there as an additional benefit in the background essentially. Now the way it might be marketed and the way people might take it or treat it can certainly be different.

 

[Col4bin]

It's basically something to help and work in the background really to avoid things that a human might mess up or not react fast enough or appropriately enough to. The driving should still basically take place as normal with this just being there as an additional benefit in the background essentially. Now the way it might be marketed and the way people might take it or treat it can certainly be different.

Apparently in the guy's case who drove his Tesla into a semi. Crazy drivers.

 

[SteveW928]

Hmm, I'm not sure 5 years is enough for everyone to forgot about all this silliness. This announcement will probably come back to bite them.

 

[Alenore]

Honestly—what the hell is "assisted driving" anyway? What a silly thing. Why and how is that any real benefit to the consumer besides a coy marketing term? If you take your eyes off the road and let the car do the driving at any point, which is the main idea that these companies are rushing to market, there's going to be problems.

Oh I wonder what's the point of steering assist system, then.
You could extend that kind of thinking to any "assistant" thing out there.

 

[theluggage]

Ummmm??? 400,000 people have paid a deposit with the intention to buy, what don't you get about that?

No, they've paid $1000 to reserve a place in the queue when orders open. There isn't even a price list yet. When orders open they'll be invited to finalise their order & choose options or ask for their $1000 back. There will be a drop-out rate and since nobody has really tried this marketing model before, nobody knows what it will be.

Generally, if you pay a deposit with intention to buy and then decide not to buy, you risk losing all or some of your deposit.

Many times Tesla Motors have said that even the base $35,000 car will be a brilliant car, industry leading in its class, no need for optional extras.

Er, Mandy Rice-Davies Applies, I think. Or, since you seem to take everything 100% literally, perhaps I should say that Tesla Motors are not an impartial source of information when it comes to the awesomeness of their products. Musk himself has already said that he expects the average selling price with options to be $42k

$35,000 is not an expensive electric car.

Maybe not an expensive EV, but its still an expensive car.

A lot of disruption is on the way for the old players like Ford and GM.

True. Don't get the idea that I'm counting Tesla out (although their stock could take a beating when we find out how many deposits they have to refund).

1000 km in one go? That's 10 hours of non stop driving at 100 km/h.

Er - please read the bit of my post that says "never again" after the reference to driving 1000km and go on to the bit that talks about more realistic journeys that would still tax the range of current EVs.

- There is no range issue, it has nothing to do with the phase of the moon - a ridiculous argument you've made.

You're quite right, it doesn't (as far as I know) depend on the phase of the moon. Jolly good show Smacrumon for spotting this clear flaw in my reasoning, and protecting others who may have been deceived or mislead by my most subtle and cunning deception - you have performed a service to humanity. (Note: you're not expected to take that last sentence seriously.)

Meanwhile, the range of an EV still depends on a wide range of factors such as temperature, speed, driving conditions, use of lights, heater, air con, wipers, age/condition of the battery and how much weight you're carrying and so "range of 200 miles" doesn't mean "200 miles between charges".

- Charging is simple, the car locates the charging stations, you can charge at home.

Does it teleport you to the charging station if you've misjudged and run out of juice?
How do people charge at home if they don't have their own driveway?

Look, lets just re-iterate what I've already said, in the hope of "second time lucky": If you have a driveway and all of your travel is within EV range of home, or if your longer trips all involve visiting locations equipped with charging stations, or if you are prepared to run two cars, then an EV will be absolutely perfect for you. Enjoy. Just stop pretending that everybody - or even the majority of people - fall into that bracket.

I'd actually quite like an EV and I've spent quite a bit of time looking into it - but I've got friends and relatives living 200-300 miles away and while making those journeys in an EV is possible, but far from convenient, especially when you start looking beyond simple distances and ask questions like "how much charge am I going to have left when arrive at my destination, where am I going to top up, and do I really want the first thing I do on arrival to be an enforced Starbucks while the car recharges?"

Sorry, but if I spend 50% over the odds on my next car I want making trips to be convenient not just possible.
[doublepost=1471520290][/doublepost]

And these cars are going to get better. By 2021 I really don't think there will be many sacrifices.

There needs to be a big change in the charging infrastructure as EVs go mainstream: I can only speak from the UK perspective where - currently - there are a couple of charging bays (probably 1 or 2 of whichever type you need) at most Motorway service stations. That's great for the current level of EV ownership and they're usually vacant (if not, then hope that you have enough juice to get 20-30 miles to the next station or don't mind waiting an unknown period for the bay to be free).

Now, walk over to the petrol pumps and see the throughput of re-fuelled ICE cars per minute, bearing in mind that (a) ICE cars need fuelling less frequently and (b) Don't mention home charging: motorway services are the most expensive places to get petrol, so almost everybody you see there has needed to fill up mid-journey rather than using cheap fuel from their local supermarket. That's the sort of charging capacity that would be needed to support widespread EV uptake - and unless in 2021 someone has invented the 5-minute battery charger you're going to need lots of EV bays to get that capacity: probably about 60 EV bays to match the throughput of a dozen petrol pumps.

...and when the majority of EV owners are no longer the most wealthy customers, but still expect super-cheap charging, where's the incentive for that much expansion?

The other issue is on-street charging for people living in towns with no driveways. That would affect a lot of people (and not just poor people!)

 

[AlexGraphicD]

If Ford's autonomous driving car will be using old internal combustion engines that pollute the city, good luck getting passengers to board that vehicle. By 2021, Tesla will have fully autonomous electric cars that don't damage the environment. What vehicles do you think customers will choose in 2021, a gas guzzler or a super clean Tesla?
Time is up. Die slow (or fast), Ford Motor Company.
PS this ain't really a MacRumor.

I was about to comment to just that. I find it hilarious how ford and every other major car company is focusing on autonomous driving without mentioning any plan of transition to electric motors. As if the consumers are asking in hordes for autonomous driving systems...

EV is what the masses prefer over auto pilot and also it is better for the environment so why not just focus on that?

 

[TallManNY]

I have to disagree with the second portion of your prediction. There are several factors running against your prediction. The largest factor is the price of oil. As long as oil is cheap, people will continue to buy SUV's, CUV's and trucks. They will also continue to buy passenger cars as well. There's also the matter of the huge amount of cars available for 10-15K less than 35K. I can't readily find the info, but I would be willing to bet the number of cars sold for under 25K exceeds the number of cars sold for over 35K. ICE cars will continue to compete because until EV becomes more profitable for the manufacturer and less expensive for the consumer, the impetus to buy an EV is going to be on the environmentally conscious. Plus we're going to need new and better battery tech. There are many other factors as well. About the Model 3 arriving at the end of 2017... If that actually happens, I will eat my hat. It will be delayed. If history is an indicator, it will be delayed more than once. That's a good thing. Musk needs to get it right. Unlike the rushed (and still delayed) Model X, he needs to make sure the Model 3's performance and reliability can meet the hype. Otherwise, he'll set EV's back. In less than 5 years I think there will be more hybrids and EV's but ICE will still be the primary seller. The auto industry moves at a snails pace.

We shall see. But EV cars are a technology. And one thing we seen with new technology is that as the manufacturing base ramps up the, the price goes down. And this is at the same time as the technology gets better. The car portion of an EV and ICE are the same cost (wheels and body), but the ICE has been optimized and reached scale in manufacturing. We can expect no significant advances or cost reductions.

But if Tesla can actually make a $35k car in 2017 (and I have some skepticism as well, though not so much as to endanger my hat), then other companies will be able to make a $30k one in 2019. And then a $25k in 2021. Or a $20k one that is no frills like a $15k ICE. But the EV will be more dependable, perform better, and drive cheaper due to certain intrinsic properties of the technology. Remember Tesla's "ludicrous mode" is a freaking software update. It costs Tesla nothing to turn your great car into having super car performance levels. That is because the tech of EV on some levels is just better than ICE. Now it just needs to get cheaper. But tech ramping up in manufacturing levels does that all the time. This is unlikely to be an exception.

 

[AlexGraphicD]

Can't even begin to explain how annoying these kind of posts are.

Everybody knows, that electric vehicles are not significantly cleaner than ICE vehicles because of of many reasons like manufacturing, toxic battery acids, energy production and so on.

Don't overexaggerate so much.

http://www.treehugger.com/cars/here...ctric-car-battery-at-the-end-of-its-life.html

"First, we learn that the cells are manufactured in Japan where there are relatively strict environmental laws, and meet the RoHS standards. They are mostly made of lithium metal oxides with zero lead, mercury, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, PBBs or PBDEs. In fact, there no heavy metals, nor any toxic materials. Tesla says that, by law, its battery cells could be landfilled, though that's not what they actually do."

https://www.tesla.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-recycling-program

 

[smacrumon]

No, they've paid $1000 to reserve a place in the queue when orders open. There isn't even a price list yet. When orders open they'll be invited to finalise their order & choose options or ask for their $1000 back. There will be a drop-out rate and since nobody has really tried this marketing model before, nobody knows what it will be.

Generally, if you pay a deposit with intention to buy and then decide not to buy, you risk losing all or some of your deposit.



Er, Mandy Rice-Davies Applies, I think. Or, since you seem to take everything 100% literally, perhaps I should say that Tesla Motors are not an impartial source of information when it comes to the awesomeness of their products. Musk himself has already said that he expects the average selling price with options to be $42k



Maybe not an expensive EV, but its still an expensive car.



True. Don't get the idea that I'm counting Tesla out (although their stock could take a beating when we find out how many deposits they have to refund).



Er - please read the bit of my post that says "never again" after the reference to driving 1000km and go on to the bit that talks about more realistic journeys that would still tax the range of current EVs.



You're quite right, it doesn't (as far as I know) depend on the phase of the moon. Jolly good show Smacrumon for spotting this clear flaw in my reasoning, and protecting others who may have been deceived or mislead by my most subtle and cunning deception - you have performed a service to humanity. (Note: you're not expected to take that last sentence seriously.)

Meanwhile, the range of an EV still depends on a wide range of factors such as temperature, speed, driving conditions, use of lights, heater, air con, wipers, age/condition of the battery and how much weight you're carrying and so "range of 200 miles" doesn't mean "200 miles between charges".



Does it teleport you to the charging station if you've misjudged and run out of juice?
How do people charge at home if they don't have their own driveway?

Look, lets just re-iterate what I've already said, in the hope of "second time lucky": If you have a driveway and all of your travel is within EV range of home, or if your longer trips all involve visiting locations equipped with charging stations, or if you are prepared to run two cars, then an EV will be absolutely perfect for you. Enjoy. Just stop pretending that everybody - or even the majority of people - fall into that bracket.

I'd actually quite like an EV and I've spent quite a bit of time looking into it - but I've got friends and relatives living 200-300 miles away and while making those journeys in an EV is possible, but far from convenient, especially when you start looking beyond simple distances and ask questions like "how much charge am I going to have left when arrive at my destination, where am I going to top up, and do I really want the first thing I do on arrival to be an enforced Starbucks while the car recharges?"

Sorry, but if I spend 50% over the odds on my next car I want making trips to be convenient not just possible.

Your comments can simply be described as underplaying all the problems with conventional gas guzzler cars while at the same time distorting and underplaying all the great advances electric cars and the Tesla Model 3 bring to customers that own or will own them.

The choice is of getting a new superb high tech $35000 Tesla or getting a fossil fuel burning gas guzzler conventional car that not only damages the environment but requires the user to do a whole bunch of maintenance and ongoing expenses changing and replacing all the junk under the bonnet that fail.

Tesla has proven you can design and develop a superbly satisfying electric car that goes super fast, with long driving range, which costs less over its life and helps preserve the environment.

400,000 people all around the world didn't hand over their $1000 deposit just for fun. 400,000 people around the world put a deposit to BUY and OWN a very cool electric car. I've never experienced that many people putting their confidence into preordering a car, it's never happened with gas guzzler cars before.

Buckle up. Change is coming, great change.