Forex, stocks and shares

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by acearchie, Apr 20, 2012.

  1. acearchie macrumors 68040

    acearchie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2006
    #1
    Hi guys,

    I am new to all of this and at the moment I am taking part in an inter-university FREE scheme that has real prizes based on performance from virtual trading.

    At the moment it is only UK based so only trading in UK equities but I was wondering in simple terms what's the best way to find out if something is projected to rise or fall in relation to their stock prices. Is there like a timetable of announcements that I could then "bet" on whether it's good news or bad news.

    I realise that I am not going to turn into a city trader overnight but I was wondering if there are any good starter guides or resources that would help me figure out what to invest in.

    Cheers!
     
  2. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #2
    Guess. It depends on what time frame you're talking about.
     
  3. acearchie thread starter macrumors 68040

    acearchie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2006
    #3
    Well from what I have seen at the moment the competitions seem to run for 14 days max so they are expecting you to turn a profit in that time.

    I am very unexperienced in this field so any help would be great!
     
  4. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #4
    14 days is a meaningless time frame. Pick a stock at random. Odds are you'll do just as well as someone who "knows what they're doing."
     
  5. acearchie thread starter macrumors 68040

    acearchie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2006
    #5
    Well at the moment that is my main tactic however, I am trying to put some sort of reason into my purchases. For example I "bought" tesco because I heard about the £1bn investment into their domestic facilities however, it appears that they also should reduced profit for the first time in a number of years and that has really screwed me up at the moment.

    Below is my list of current trades and I essentially have until next friday for them to "sort themselves out".
     

    Attached Files:

  6. acidfast7 macrumors 65816

    acidfast7

    Joined:
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    Location:
    EU
    #6
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  7. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
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    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #7
    Looks like you're going to lose then. Short of an incredibly unlikely, large-percentage jump in any of those stocks you're going to be in the red.
     
  8. acidfast7 macrumors 65816

    acidfast7

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2008
    Location:
    EU
    #8
    it's only 14 days, so it is a totally meaningless time horizon. the only way to win is to pick one potential big winners from a few guesses. see my chart above.
     
  9. GoCubsGo macrumors Nehalem

    GoCubsGo

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2005
    #9
    14 days is not meaningless. Say I bought HAL 2 days before their earnings were released. They posted 23% earnings and my stock increased 4% (based on what I bought it at). I sold all but 1000 shares, made a fairly large profit and held 1000. 2 days after their earnings were released their stock was up even more than what it was when their earnings were released.

    14 days is not meaningless. If you're allowed to actually trade I don't think 14 days is meaningless at all. I should say unless the UK is so very different than the US.
     
  10. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
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    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #10
    Anyone can construct a scenario in which any amount of time can result in big gains. Statistically it's unlikely. YMMV.
     
  11. acidfast7 macrumors 65816

    acidfast7

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2008
    Location:
    EU
    #11
    but, as t goes to ∞






    however, i agree and think that a 14-day time horizon for any "competition" is foolish.
     
  12. acearchie thread starter macrumors 68040

    acearchie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2006
    #12
    I understand this chart is of the S&P 500 meaning that data is for companies within the USA. Whilst I understand the concept of the first and second derivative I don't understand how that data for a selection of companies would allow me to pick a potential "winner" or "loser".

    At the start of each session we are given £100,000 of virtual money so hopefully I have bought the stock in such large quantities that it wouldn't need such a giant price jump to bring me back to at least break even. Surely if it can go down that much in literally a few days it has the option of bouncing back although I understand that for someone like Tesco they would have to pull something monumental out of a hat to hide their recent results.

    This is the exact theory I am attempting to follow as in find out when an earnings conference call is happening or something similar and "bet" on the results. I naively assume this is how city traders make their money but with more reasoning.

    Just to point out I am not looking for big gains but rather any sort of gain. What would be the best indication of whether a company is going to gain?

    What is the best charts of share price to look at 1d, 1w, 3mnts as for some businesses they are all telling a different story. For the short term I have been focusing on the 1d prices and trying to predict an upward trend.

    By the way, just to prove that I am not totally incompetent I have made several successful trades but they don't appear in this statement as I have already sold them. I am holding onto the losers hoping that they will miraculously become good.
     
  13. GoCubsGo macrumors Nehalem

    GoCubsGo

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2005
    #13
    This is true, except that happened and it's completely verifiable. I am saying that in some cases 14 days is far from meaningless and that anyone saying that is wrong.
     
  14. T'hain Esh Kelch macrumors 601

    T'hain Esh Kelch

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2001
    Location:
    Denmark
    #14
    Yes, and they may have posted a 23% loss instead, and you'd lost 5% instead. 14 days is a pointless horizon unless you are a swing or day trader, and has good insight into the stocks you are looking at. Jumping into the field as the OP and expect to make money in 14 days is like playing russian roulette.

    If OP wants to do simple research, find stock podcasts that talk about general trends and some major stocks, and see if he can pick up some good hints.
     

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