Future Market Share

Discussion in 'macOS' started by drumpat01, Jul 26, 2006.

  1. drumpat01 macrumors 6502


    Jul 31, 2004
    Denton, TX
    So how much do we think Apples world wide market share grows in the next 5 years, 10 years, 15 years? Apple seems to be doing pretty well recently especially in the laptop department and with the ability to boot into Windows now, I dont really see anything holding them back except for MAYBE the price. Im going to go out on a limb here and say that today's world wide market share is 4.3% I THINK thats what I heard last.

    5 years - 7%
    10 years - 15%
    15 years - 25%

    What do you guys think? To much, not enough?
  2. mattjgalloway macrumors member

    May 21, 2006
    I can seriously see Apple and the various Linux groups out there eating into Microsoft's market share.

    I think that as MacOS becomes more mainstream from being able to be run on Intel's and software being written for the Intel Macs, we will see more people move over from Microsoft and then with that new-found open mindedness, people might try Linux and be pleasantly surprised!

    It's going to happen, because Microsoft simply can't continue to charge as much as it does for it's software. I got Office at student rate, but even then it's £109 which is crazy really! I would be HAPPY to use Windows and Office if they were around the £30-£40 mark, but that's not the case is it! Having to fork out £200 for Windows XP to run on my Mac is crazy. Even if I go for the OEM it's ~£90 for Professional...

    I *really* get frustrated at Microsoft because they could be doing great things in the software world, but instead they continue to try to rule the roost instead of getting along with open source software (i.e. embrace the Open Document Format PLEASE!). They're all about the money and not about the software and I can't stand that!

    *Rant Over*
  3. slackersonly macrumors 6502a


    Apr 13, 2006
    I think that 15% would be the ceiling with current factors. The biggest factor is that so far Apple has shown zero interest in the low end market which is where the unit sales are really done. Many families have 1 nice computer for the adults and then a couple of $300 dells for the kids. It is just like ford claiming that it had the most popular car and not honda but wouldnt admit that its sales number included fleet sales to law enforcement and others.

    Projecting beyond 5 years is very very tough. who would have projected the mp3 market change 1 year before the ipod was introduced.
  4. VanNess macrumors 6502a


    Mar 31, 2005
    Market share as it relates to PC use is an absolute unmitigated canard and it's as misunderstood these days as it is useless for two obvious, basic reasons:

    1) The internet. Designed from the beginning to be platform neutral, it doesn't matter which computer or OS you use, all that matters is having the ability to access the net. MS, initially worried that widespread use of the net could make it's Windows OS desktop dominance appear suddenly irrelevant, tried very hard to subvert the open internet principle and protect it's monopoly with it's "Windows Internet Explorer only" and "activeX" initiatives. But in doing so they also left the door wide open for Malware, Inc to rise directly in proportion. Slowly but surely, web designers now seem to be finally wising up, and generally it appears the net is in the process of correcting/curing itself with technologies like Ajax and a resurgence in adoption of standards-based products like Mozilla/Firefox and Mac OS X.

    2) Every year, Apple sells computers by the millions, and that's really the most important thing. That means there are millions of active OS X users out there who don't seem to have a problem with supposedly paying a premium for a superior computing experience. That fact is bankable gold for software writers who are willing to produce quality software on the platform, because Mac users, millions and millions of them, by virtue of the fact that they demonstrate a willingness to pay for better stuff, will happily fork over their credit card for great third-party software. Another fact that developers seems to be slowly wising up to. You don't have to sell to every single Mac user, and it's unrealistic to believe you can. But how many units do you need to push out the door in order to make a handsome profit? 500,000? A million? That's a drop in the bucket in the Mac universe.

    We have long since past the time when market share numbers, regardless of how they are calculated, are in any way relevant. The fact is in a world where general computer usage is as widespread as it has become nowadays with so many users of different platforms out there, market share for any given platform no longer matters. Once the number of active users reaches a certain threshold on a platform, they become relevant and that's what matters. Market share numbers, by their very primitive, generalized nature, don't disclose that fact, and arguably, have no intent to do so. It's basically an obsolete measurement from the pre-internet, corporate desktop days of the 80's and early nineties; much has changed in the computing world since then in terms of growth, users and technologies.

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