Future of the PPC? (970, 980, 990, 9900)

[soggywulf]

Re: Re: Re: the future is bright

Originally posted by MarkCollette
I know based this all on video encoding, but I believe that that one demand is representative of consumer demand for CPU processing, in general. Ie, a game or word-processor need not be that fast, in general.

Don't you believe it. Games will always, *always* need more power. It doesn't matter how much you give it, it will not be enough. 25 GHz will not be enough. Games are limited only by imagination, and imagination is an incomprehensibly enormous thing--larger than the universe itself.

I see the requirements for games accelerating far ahead of video work, at least for some subsystems of the computer.

Also, remember that the games out-revenued Hollywood last year (I think). The game industry is a major driver of innovation, and I see that as only increasing in the future.

 

[soggywulf]

Re: Re: Marklar: The most important news?

Originally posted by GregAussie
Most people seem to say Apple has huge margins on their hardware - yet they seem to assume a $0 cost for MacOS X? Shouldn't we assume the OS cost is AT LEAST the upgrade cost of $129? Any $800 PC with Marklar would have to make Apple at least that ($200?).

This argument makes no sense. Windows is a crappy OS, but it costs money to make too. There must be a ton of cost involved in making XP run on such a diverse variety of hardware. Yet you can buy extremely cheap and fast machines that run WinXP.

Now if you want to argue economies of scale, that would be legitimate.

 

[rocks1985]

Cool

This is My First Post on the MacRumors Forums!!!

 

[h'biki]

Re: Re: Marklar: The most important news?

Originally posted by GregAussie
Maybe Steve will consider selling OSX on IBM's blades? or for AMD's 64bit chips. It gives Apple a tamer entry to 'alternate' hardware, and still differentiates them as a 64bit OS. AMDs chip may emulate some PPC code easier too.0

Actually, my money would suggest that Steve's 'options' may actually mean an OS X running on Power4 and Power5s - possibly badged as an XServe.

The ultimate in badass servers.

(And they get to surprise everyone when they announce their next gen XServers which everyone expects to be 'just' G5s. Nup. Apple is going balls-to-the-wall into the server market.)

I don't think I'm totally dreaming either - yes, I know the current iteration of XServes is a 1U cae which doesn't have the cooling requirements of the 970... but we'll see.

 

[GregA]

The OS costs money

Originally posted by soggywulf
This argument makes no sense. Windows is a crappy OS, but it costs money to make too. There must be a ton of cost involved in making XP run on such a diverse variety of hardware. Yet you can buy extremely cheap and fast machines that run WinXP.

Now if you want to argue economies of scale, that would be legitimate.

But that's exactly what I mean. When Dell calculates their profit on sale - it includes having paid something for the OS. From what I have read, Apple considers the cost of their OS on each machine to be $0. Thus if they 'profit' $400 on a given machine, maybe the OS should be considered to cost $200 of that. So their profit on each computer is not as high as people thought.

The economies of scale are also related - maybe the cost of maintaining an OS is 5 times higher for Apple than Microsoft. So $40 per PC for Microsoft might be realistic and $200 per Mac for Apple (until they start selling 10 times as much).

Maybe I've just misread - and when Apple claims a high profit on their machines they've already factored OS cost???

 

[soggywulf]

Re: Re: Re: i want... no, NEED more than 25GHz!!!

Originally posted by Haberdasher
There's already a service for this for cell-phones. Dial the service, put the phone to a song on the radio, or you can whistle/hum the tune. The service searches its database by matching certain peaks and troughs (I think), and returns with a possible match. Apparently it's pretty accurate, and is getting better all the time (able to ignore more and more background noise, softer music, etc.)

Sorry I can't remember the name, but it IS out there (it was on CNN or I read it in Time...) Try looking for it, I remember it sounded wicked sweet.

Wow, sounds cool! I'll have to check that out. But, I have my doubts. Matching songs I can almost believe, but finding "emotionally similar music"--I seriously doubt it. If something like that really exists, it would seem to me that this system would be mind-bogglingly more complex and advanced than anything else out there today, both algorithmically and computationally. Again, I'll have to hear it to believe it.

Anyway, thx for the pointer!

 

[sigamy]

How many fans?

How many fans will that 20Ghz Power Mac have???

 

[soggywulf]

Re: The OS costs money

Originally posted by GregAussie
But that's exactly what I mean. When Dell calculates their profit on sale - it includes having paid something for the OS. From what I have read, Apple considers the cost of their OS on each machine to be $0. Thus if they 'profit' $400 on a given machine, maybe the OS should be considered to cost $200 of that. So their profit on each computer is not as high as people thought.

My point is that this does not explain price/perf differences. Both platforms have an OS and hardware, which both presumably have similar development costs on either platform. Thus, "The OS costs money" is a misleading statement. The OS costs the same for both sides.

What make the difference are (1) economies of scale, as you mention later, (2) lack of a vertical monopoly on the PC side, and (3) OSX is better than XP, so Apple can charge extra for that.

Edit: re-reading your post, I can see that you were saying the same thing...I guess we pretty much agree.

 

[soggywulf]

Re: How many fans?

Originally posted by sigamy
How many fans will that 20Ghz Power Mac have???

None. It will dissipate 1.5 watts.

 

[Hattig]

Re: Re: Bill Gates

Originally posted by daRAT
Ahh yes he did, do a web search for that phrase. All the famous quote sites list him as the author. He made it in 1981.

And at that time, it WAS enough

No, he didn't make the quote. It is simply one of the widely spread myths. At worst, it was a comment that was taken out of context ("[some people think that] 640kb is enough [but I don't]")

 

[patrick0brien]

Originally posted by C14ru5
What's the point of having eLiza error correction in a consumer processor? I thought error correction only was necessary in server processors like Power4 and Power5. I mean, how often do calculation errors occur in a processor chip?

-C14ru5

Well, the article says eLiza would be used to primarily step in when the branch prediction unit fails.

"when the branch prediction unit fails" - That sounds bad. what they're trying to say is "when the branch prediction unit doesn't predict the righ branch". It is prediction after all, and like Joe Weatherman, can't always see the future perfectly.

eLiza is then used to alleviate the data traffic pileup that would occur "when the branch prediction unit fails".

 

[Docrjm]

Re: How many fans?

Originally posted by sigamy
How many fans will that 20Ghz Power Mac have???

Much more than the 3% marketshare and hardly any inside the box!

 

[rog]

Re: Re: Re: 25 GHz?

Originally posted by XForge
One should note that the US version of Macworld magazine was cryptically saying, in a review of the 900MHz G3 iBook, that G3s may have "compatibility issues" in the future. Due to their publishing cycle they do know stuff ahead of time, and are limited only by their nondisclosure agreement. Wildassed guessing I'd say whatever comes after Panther won't boot on G3s. Wildassed guessing mind you.

Well I don't think Macworld has any more insight than any of us on this forum. They've long since ceased to be anything but a cheerleader for Apple. Apple could take 5 years to bump the iBook to 950 MHz and their cover would boast "FASTEST IBOOK EVER!!!!" and they'd go on and on about it and take off 1/2 a mouse for some random reason.

Of course Apple will drop G3 support before G4 support because OSX is increasingly making use of altivec.

 

[NNO-Stephen]

Re: How many fans?

Originally posted by sigamy
How many fans will that 20Ghz Power Mac have???

several million. you know how us Mac nuts love the "next big thing"

 

[JoeRadar]

Finding information

Originally posted by arn
This could be true... it could be made up. I don't know.

The real unknown was Apple switching from Motorola to IBM and the PowerX family. Once that was revealed, searching for information on Apple’s future path is not that difficult -- just go to google. Suggested searches:

power5 linux boot

power4 power5

power4 power5 power6

power4 power5 site:ibm.com

 

[JoeRadar]

Re: 25 GHz?

Originally posted by Ja Di ksw
Not to be rude, but what does someone need 25 Ghz for? Honestly, that is just insane

See The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. Kurzweil estimates a $1000 computer will reach human brain computation rates in the 2020s and will reach the computation rate of the entire population by the 2050s. Lots of interesting ideas.

In Taking the Red Pill, a series of essay inspired by the Matrix, Yale philosopher Nick Bostrom posits that we may already just be simulation programs that think we are real.

And of course, there is always HAL from 2001 and Star Trek's holodeck.

 

[PowerBook User]

It's nice to see that IBM is already working on several new processors. This can only be good for Apple. I am a bit disappointed that the iMacs might not have a G5 for another year. That could leave a huge performance gap between the iMac and the Power Macs.

 

[wms121]

POWER12 Mac Cube?

this is more poop for those who enjoy good speculation.

The URL below is for the Japanese division that IBM contracts to:

http://www.research.ibm.com/thinkresearch/pages/2000/200011_optical.shtml


There may be no "50GHz" pure semi chips past 2012..an experimental "POWER12" is supposed to be running in a 'wormhole generator' out at Site4 (Area51). It has 4 POWER6's running on top of a SiON optical chip RAM in a MCM type direct custom prototype. There are several "teraflops on a chip" type proto's in IBM's research labs, most use optical memory.

4 of these would make a nice "Mac Cube"..and would have optical power and telecom (Infiniband 32x/64x) networking.

<==embedded snitch in DoD land

 

[MacManDan]

Re: Re: Re: i want... no, NEED more than 25GHz!!!

Regarding: humming a tune and iTunes will find the song and play.

Originally posted by ZildjianKX
Actually the idea has already been done and researched by MIT I believe. A PC version was suppose to come out sometime this year, but who knows.

This is true .. MIT has a working prototype (that works VERY well). MIT's AI Labs also have a great deal done on many things I've seen on this post .. visual/voice recognition has had years and years of development. One of MIT's AI Lab's robots had "eyes" and learned to play with blocks. That same robot could track and follow someone waving a ball in front of it. This was all done with a couple of networked PIIIs .. it's ridiculous to think you need a 25ghz computer to do that.

True .. the technology does need to be improved to even have a prayer of reaching a human's visual/audible recognition abilities, but some of the stuff that the AI Lab comes up with is just amazing. Since I go to school at MIT, I have seen a lot of this stuff first-hand. If you're ever in the Boston area, go to the MIT Museum in Cambridge .. you will see you don't need a 25ghz machine (or even a 5 ghz machine) to do very good recognition and AI.

25ghz machines can do a LOT more! Think bigger! Think WeatherPop v2000 with a huge prediction model that could accurately forecast the weather for your front yard for the next month. THAT is more along the lines of what a 25ghz machine could do.

 

[iLilana]

Re: 25 GHz?

Originally posted by Ja Di ksw
Not to be rude, but what does someone need 25 Ghz for? Honestly, that is just insane, especially if they are dual processors. I know people making music or animation or whatever would like them, but for your average Joe, do we really need that much? I guess that's what the iMac's and the like are for, though by then they will have 10 or 20 Ghz or whatever.

Remember this?

"640K ought to be enough for anybody"
- Satan, um, I mean, Bill Gates.

simulated holographic display technology

 

[-hh]

Re: Re: Re: 25 GHz?

Originally posted by macrumors12345
Wow, Geordi, you are the first person I have seen who is planning to buy the 1.8 Ghz model. I have seen a number of posts saying "I plan to get the Dual 2 Ghz G5," but this is the first one I've seen saying "I want to get the Single 1.8 Ghz model." Good to know that someone is buying them. Still haven't seen anyone going for the 1.6 Ghz.

Well, you can put me down on the list of "lesser" PowerMacs too.


I don't need the pricetag of a DP 2GHz, so I'm debating between a 1.6 and a 1.8GHz.

In running some numbers, it costs $275 to bring the $1999 1.6Ghz G5 up to be "equal" with the 1.8GHz G5 for the RAM & Hard Drive. This means that if you want those options anyway, the price premium for the extra 200MHz is effectively only $150 ($2,249 vs $2399), which is probably worth buying (an extra +12% in clock speed for only +6% cost).

However, the caveat is the usual one ... this is paying Apple's RAM prices. The $150 effective price differential jumps from $150 to $250 when 3rd Party RAM is used to expand to 512MB.

Nevertheless, I'm leaning towards the 1.8 because it uses the same RAM as the 2GHz and the 1.6 doesn't...I have the "bad feeling" that this might affect the machine's lifecycle 3-4 years from now in terms of what gets support dropped first.

Overall, if I could get a DP 1.6GHz for $2300, I might consider it. And a DP system should be theoretically avaiable as an aftermarket retrofit, if Apple really wants to permit it.

Finally, a similar cost analysis can be done with the DP 2GHz: Apple offers a BTO option on the 1.25GHz G4 to upgrade it from SP to DP for $300 which can be used to SWAG the SP->DP cost. The markup from the 1.8Ghz is $600, and when you value the +200MHz bump at $150, the videocard at $50 and the 2nd chip at $300, you come up with $500 worth of "value". When viewed in this context, the price points seem very well worked out.


-hh

 

[XForge]

Re: Re: Re: 25 GHz?

Originally posted by Jeff Harrell
AI is not a computationally bound problem. It's not like we have AI systems out there right now that can do the job but are too slow. AI is a theoretically bound problem: we don't even know if it's possible yet, much less if it's possible with existing technology, much less whether existing technology is fast enough.

OTOH artificial stupidity is easy as pie. See for example, PowerPoint. (grin)

 

[pixelpusher]

If you build it...

One of the fundamental truths about computing is that if you build it, they will come.

Finding applications of massive supercomputing power is easy. Just see what applications are running only on the fastest supercomputers. Weather prediction, etc...

How about human genome stuff. I met a geneticist that thought trying to do the Celera route of brute force decoding the human genome would never work because of how long it would take. He didn't take into account moore's law. He was working on finding a more elegant solution when the microprocessor let other guys just do a brute force solution.

A lot of hard problems are gonna be solved with brute force and superfast mircoprocessors.

On another note, I can imagine cell phones that can scan a potential mate in a bar and determine if their genetics are good for breeding.

Hopefully sooner, I'd like to attach some 'trodes on my head and get the machine to Image what's in my head so I don't have to work an physical input device. Photoshop with a stylus go away; After Effects rendering begone!

 

[kenaustus]

What's important: Apple's on the move!

The Apple-IBM relationship is exciting because it is allowing Steve J to start taking on the Wintel world in a very powerful way. The new G5's are basically the "entry level" computers for this round of development and you can be sure that the folks at Apple are working hard to ensure that all hell breaks loose over the next year or two.

While rapid increases in speed will be great for power users the increase will also be important in the competitive environment - who will be king of the hill? I for one would love to see a Mac that with a faster Ghz rating that the top of the line Pentium - it might shut up some of the bashers from the Wintel world for a while!

The challenge today is one of engineering - e.g., how do you bring the new chips to an efficient cooling level in a PB? That will probably have to wait until the 980 is released with the 0.09 micron process. Once there, however, one might see an optional dual processor PB in the 15" and the 17". Just the thought makes it hard to sleep at night.

There is also going to be significant enhancements in the consumer lines and I would guess that the Mhz gap may be closed at the various pricepoints in that market, depending on what IBM can come up with in the way of processors.

Apple is going to continue to pour money into OS X and the Mac apps, with probably one or more major upgrades to OS X before Longhorn is finally released. (This is one of the reasons why I didn't hesitate to pay for 10.2 and will be first in line for 10.3 - I want to see OS X increase their lead over WIndows.) The introduction of iTunes & the Music Store under Windows is also going to generate significant revenues for Apple and, for the first time, let a lot of Wintel users see what the Mac world is really about - something that will motivate them to look at Macs when they need or want a new computer.

I believe that these factors are moving to a point where the lower end Macs will be able to generate a significant increase in market share, which provides the economies of scale needed to bring prices down, or performance significantly up (or both) for the entire range. Gonna cause a lot of worry at MS!

We are still at the point where the G5 has been announced, but not delivered, and are talking about how soon the G5 will double in speed, how soon we'll hit 20 Ghz and, in another thread, who long it will be before Apple releases the 30" Cinema display. Damn, it is an exciting time to be a Mac user & lover!

 

[MacManDan]

Re: If you build it...

Originally posted by pixelpusher
On another note, I can imagine cell phones that can scan a potential mate in a bar and determine if their genetics are good for breeding.

Hopefully sooner, I'd like to attach some 'trodes on my head and get the machine to Image what's in my head so I don't have to work an physical input device. Photoshop with a stylus go away; After Effects rendering begone!

Now THAT's thinking big. It's stuff like what pixelpusher is talking about that may seem like science fiction but have more credibility when talking about technology in 10 years. In 10 years, with the release of this 25ghz processor and other technology that we can only dream of, the machines we are working on now (even those blazing new G5s) will seem like primitive stone-age tools. It's the ideas that people like pixelpusher have (rather than used-up, already-done ideas like voice/face recognition etc) that keep R&D people on their toes and come up with stuff that will make use of the brand-new technology of the time. Just think .. 10 years ago, how many of you could have imagined dual 2.0ghz G5 processors that can render life-like 3d images, edit movies in professional quality, etc etc?