Future proofing concept?

[VxayV]

It seems now that Macs are assigned to "vintage" status after 5 years, and "obsolete" status after 7 years, future proofing is dead. My 2009 Macbook Pro needed a new battery in 2016. Guess what? Apple no longer offered the replacement part. If you can no longer get OEM parts, and then eventually updates also cease, you may as well plan on purchasing a new machine.

 

[997440]

It seems now that Macs are assigned to "vintage" status after 5 years, and "obsolete" status after 7 years, future proofing is dead. My 2009 Macbook Pro needed a new battery in 2016. Guess what? Apple no longer offered the replacement part. If you can no longer get OEM parts, and then eventually updates also cease, you may as well plan on purchasing a new machine.

It's important to note the "have not been sold for" and "sales were discontinued" language:

[...]
Vintage products are those that have not been sold for more than 5 and less than 7 years ago. Mac, iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Apple TV vintage products continue to receive hardware service from Apple service providers, including Apple Retail Stores, subject to availability of inventory, or as required by law.

For products purchased in France, see Statutory Warranties of Seller and Spare Parts.

Obsolete products are those whose sales were discontinued more than 7 years ago. Monster-branded Beats products are considered obsolete regardless of when they were purchased. Apple has discontinued all hardware service for obsolete products, with no exceptions. Service providers cannot order parts for obsolete products.
[...]

https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT201624

 

[TiggrToo]

You can never "future proof" because none of us know the future.

Heck, you could go out and buy a machine packed to the gills with the latest and greatest CPUs and stuff Giggles and Giggles on RAM inside it and then find out 6 months later they the CPU has a major security flaw that renders it a huge gaping security hole.

Best you can do is buy what makes you feel happy.

For example, in waiting for the next Keynote in June to see if a new iMac is released. If not I'm going to pull the trigger on a refurb iMac Pro which I think we'll keep me going for the next 5 of years.

The last PC I brought was back in 2009 when I dropped $1300 on a Gateway quad core i7 with 16 GB ram and hot swappable drives - went with my gut then and is still running 11 years later (albeit with a new SSD about 4 years ago).

 

[DukeDevlin]

Having more opinions is good! That just means that from the time you started looking into this, you’ve found out SO much more that should factor into your decision.

Starting with “How much do I want to spend?” is always good. See what you can get for what you can afford and just go with that. Your last purchase was a laptop for general use, that could also run FCPX if you needed it to. In buying a MBP 16-inch now, you’re getting a computer meant to run FCPX from day one. Regardless of what configuration you get, from the base, all the way up to the high end, they’re all going to run FCPX better longer than your Air.

Now, what no one here can help you with, is whether your modest hobby usage of FCPX will grow dramatically in the future. Because you don’t know if it will or not. You mentioned:

If this is true and WILL be true in the future, then literally any 16-inch configuration you buy will be sufficient. Because today’s 16-inches already perform well with FCPX today. Look at this text from Apple’s page.

1. Testing conducted by Apple in October 2019 using preproduction 2.4GHz 8-core Intel Core i9-based 16-inch MacBook Pro systems with 64GB of RAM and shipping 3.1GHz quad-core Intel Core i7-based 15-inch MacBook Pro systems with 16GB of RAM. Tested with Final Cut Pro 10.4.7 using a 50-second Multicam project with 11 streams of Apple ProRes RAW video, at 4096x2160 resolution and 23.98 frames per second. Multicam playback with Angle Viewer in Final Cut Pro was set to display 16 angles. Performance tests are conducted using specific computer systems and reflect the approximate performance of MacBook Pro.

This is a load that Apple considers would be representative of potential MBP buyers TODAY. It doesn’t sound like you’re working with 11 streams of Apple ProRes RAW video (and not looking at 16 angles at once?) And, if you’re not, and you never do, then you may never see the benefit of the additional processing power of the 2.4 i9 even after 10 years. It might be 1000 wasted. That’s why the most important thing for you, based on what information you’ve provided, is to buy what you can comfortably afford.

Having said allllllll that, if you were a family member or a close personal friend of mine, there is NO WAY I’d let you spend a penny on a new computer this close to WWDC. 🙂

Thanks. My needs and my futur needs are the following: Be able to edit videos on FCPX confortable in 4K during the 6-8 next years with Photoshop on the background to make my thumbnails.

 

[cambookpro]

Thanks. My needs and my futur needs are the following: Be able to edit videos on FCPX confortable in 4K during the 6-8 next years with Photoshop on the background to make my thumbnails.

How long are your projects? I know a film editor who has edited 5 minute 4K projects - in native 4K - on a retina 12" MacBook. Obviously took a while to export, but FCP is so well optimised, it was fine to edit with. They are currently editing a 60 minute 1080p project on a 2018 13" MBP due to the coronavirus lockdown. It's perfectly doable, as most exporting is left overnight/over lunch anyway. When you are actually editing and working on the timeline, the 13" is really capable.

The 16" will be quite comfortable for years to come. I echo the sentiment many people have said here - "future proofing", these days, is a concept that just makes people spend more than they needed to. Any big upgrades down the line are likely to be ones that you can't future-proof against today.

For example, the last time I upgraded my Mac was a 15" 2011 MBP to a 13" 2016 MBP. This wasn't because of speed - the 2011 was still more than quick enough for me at the time. However, the 2016 had USB-C; a Retina screen; Bluetooth 4 for Handoff, Continuity and Apple Watch unlock; more modern WiFi, etc. No matter how much I spent in 2011, I could not have future-proofed against this.

I think it's the same now. If you are asking whether you need an i9/32GB RAM etc, you probably don't. You would know if you did. Therefore, any money spent now is unlikely to actually extend the life of the computer, as things like USB 4, different processor architecture, better screens, better connectivity (UWB?) are more likely to come in the next decade and be worth the upgrade than a faster processor that could be mitigated by buying an i9 now.

I'd recommend buying the base 16" and enjoying it, as it should last you a long time 🙂

 

[DukeDevlin]

How long are your projects? I know a film editor who has edited 5 minute 4K projects - in native 4K - on a retina 12" MacBook. Obviously took a while to export, but FCP is so well optimised, it was fine to edit with. They are currently editing a 60 minute 1080p project on a 2018 13" MBP due to the coronavirus lockdown. It's perfectly doable, as most exporting is left overnight/over lunch anyway. When you are actually editing and working on the timeline, the 13" is really capable.

The 16" will be quite comfortable for years to come. I echo the sentiment many people have said here - "future proofing", these days, is a concept that just makes people spend more than they needed to. Any big upgrades down the line are likely to be ones that you can't future-proof against today.

For example, the last time I upgraded my Mac was a 15" 2011 MBP to a 13" 2016 MBP. This wasn't because of speed - the 2011 was still more than quick enough for me at the time. However, the 2016 had USB-C; a Retina screen; Bluetooth 4 for Handoff, Continuity and Apple Watch unlock; more modern WiFi, etc. No matter how much I spent in 2011, I could not have future-proofed against this.

I think it's the same now. If you are asking whether you need an i9/32GB RAM etc, you probably don't. You would know if you did. Therefore, any money spent now is unlikely to actually extend the life of the computer, as things like USB 4, different processor architecture, better screens, better connectivity (UWB?) are more likely to come in the next decade and be worth the upgrade than a faster processor that could be mitigated by buying an i9 now.

I'd recommend buying the base 16" and enjoying it, as it should last you a long time 🙂

Thanks. At most, my videos make between 5 and 20 minutes. Sometimes, I have interview, vlogging, and that make 30 to 90 minutes.

 

[theluggage]

Nevertheless, I can't find a consensus on the following question: When buying a new model, is it necessary to systematically reason with this notion of "Future Proofing"?

The trouble with "future proofing" is, it is guesswork. Anybody who can correctly predict what they need in the future will be making so much cash on the stock market that they don't need to worry about the price of computers 🙂

Also, on a 5 year timescale, you don't even know how your needs are going to change (years ago I bought a Mac Pro Classic because future-proofing, then for various reasons needed to switch to a laptop...)

My guess: I think the last decade will come to represent 'peak longevity' in the computer market - before then, computers were naturally obsolete after 3 years because of the speed of technological advance. Then the rate of advance slowed considerably and we saw computers that remained useful for 7-10 years (...the switch to SSDs was a particular factor, since so many old machines could be easily upgraded). Now, manufacturers have cottoned on and are increasingly building in obsolescence (...and also making it harder to stick with old software). I don't think you're likely to get 7 years out of a current model - especially a non-upgradeable laptop.

My advice:

1. Plan for 3-4 years and treat everything beyond that as a bonus
2. Work out the notional annual cost of the purchase - and put it in perspective with your other expenses.
3. When looking at future proofing options, think along the lines of "if this upgrade makes the system last another year, what does that do to the annual cost?".
4. If you are in business, also look at the rules for reclaiming tax on capital expenses (sometimes, you can only claim back the total tax over a period of several years, so there's a 'most efficient' period between upgrades - also one reason why larger businesses prefer leasing, since that gets immediate tax relief).
5. If you rely on your computer for your work (or happiness), think about what you'd do if your computer failed and factor in the benefit of getting a new computer while your old computer is still viable as an emergency fallback. Balance that against any consideration of "resale value".
6. If Apple made an affordable, upgradeable desktop I might recommend that over a laptop. Sadly, they don't (unless your version of 'affordable' runs to $10,000+) so if you want to keep using FCPx, tough.

Finally - as others have said - wait until after WWDC. While I wouldn't hold my breath for new MacBook Pros, there's the issue of the rumoured move to ARM - if that doesn't get announced at WWDC - it would be ridiculous to do it without a 6-month+ developer program - then we can probably kick that particular can down the road for another year or so.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Thanks. My needs and my futur needs are the following: Be able to edit videos on FCPX confortable in 4K during the 6-8 next years with Photoshop on the background to make my thumbnails.

Future-proofing is more about having a need that you KNOW will increase (working with larger and larger FCPX projects, increasingly huge databases, more massive Photoshop documents) and getting a system you can grow into. If your needs won’t grow, then there’s zero future proofing to do because there’s no future load that will eventually reach the limits of the system.

The base 16 inch will more than suffice for the next 6-8 years for the work you describe. I don’t think there’s any benefit to going higher as the base 16 inch is already overkill for what you plan to do.

 

[DukeDevlin]

Future-proofing is more about having a need that you KNOW will increase (working with larger and larger FCPX projects, increasingly huge databases, more massive Photoshop documents) and getting a system you can grow into. If your needs won’t grow, then there’s zero future proofing to do because there’s no future load that will eventually reach the limits of the system.

The base 16 inch will more than suffice for the next 6-8 years for the work you describe. I don’t think there’s any benefit to going higher as the base 16 inch is already overkill for what you plan to do.

For sure, my actuals needs and my future needs are the following: To be able to video edit some 4K rushes CONFORTABLE with FCPX (in order to make videos between 5 minutes and 90 minutes). When I said confortable, it was without lagging. With that, I add some effects on FCPX. And at the same time make my thumbnails on Photoshop.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

For sure, my actuals needs and my future needs are the following: To be able to video edit some 4K rushes CONFORTABLE with FCPX (in order to make videos between 5 minutes and 90 minutes). When I said confortable, it was without lagging. With that, I add some effects on FCPX. And at the same time make my thumbnails on Photoshop.

The base configuration will be more than capable enough for what you want to do. All of the 16 inch MBP’s can edit 4k video comfortably without lagging.

 

[DukeDevlin]

The base configuration will be more than capable enough for what you want to do. All of the 16 inch MBP’s can edit 4k video comfortably without lagging.

True for the next years also?

 

[Unregistered 4U]

True for the next years also?

Yes, absolutely and with no doubt. BUT, again only if your needs don’t change.

Think of it like this... the work you’re doing in Photoshop on your current computer. You should expect to continue to be able to use it well into the future as your needs are below the capabilities of your computer and the version of Photoshop. Once you have a computer that will do what you need it to do for FCPX (and the current base version... actually the base MBP from two to four years ago would suffice, too), then it will continue to do that unless you decide to do more. Which, you’ve confirmed you don’t expect to do more.

Just understand is that the base MBP 16 is a lot further ahead of your current computer in performance than “base configuration” would imply. When you get it, the entire computer will be a new and much more pleasing experience than what you are using now and you’ll be glad you saved the money for other things.

 

[DukeDevlin]

Yes, absolutely and with no doubt. BUT, again only if your needs don’t change.

Think of it like this... the work you’re doing in Photoshop on your current computer. You should expect to continue to be able to use it well into the future as your needs are below the capabilities of your computer and the version of Photoshop. Once you have a computer that will do what you need it to do for FCPX (and the current base version... actually the base MBP from two to four years ago would suffice, too), then it will continue to do that unless you decide to do more. Which, you’ve confirmed you don’t expect to do more.

Just understand is that the base MBP 16 is a lot further ahead of your current computer in performance than “base configuration” would imply. When you get it, the entire computer will be a new and much more pleasing experience than what you are using now and you’ll be glad you saved the money for other things.

For sure. My actuals and future needs will be the same: Edit videos confortably (no lag) 4K rushes from iPhone X (Between 5 to 90 minutes) and make some effects on my videos (subtitles, titles, colors effects etc.). Photoshop, the same, I have my template, and I make some modifications according to my videos. At the same time. Both.

I don’t know because with my Air there are some lags for big project.

So upgrade don’t help to manager better my uses?

 

[Unregistered 4U]

So upgrade don’t help to manager better my uses?

A faster computer does things faster, that is always true. But, when you move a video clip, and it pops to it’s new spot in .10 seconds or .30 seconds, is that noticeable? More importantly it worth an extra 1000? If you’re exporting a clip and it exports in 12 minutes instead of 16 minutes, is that worth the extra 1000?

Look at these charts:

Two 16-inch MacBook Pros compared

real world speed test results for performance minded Macintosh users

barefeats.com

They pit two configurations against each other and, for the FCPX export, the difference was 10 seconds versus 14 seconds. Across the board, the performance is reasonably close between the two. The biggest difference was with the 3D export and you’ve indicated you won’t be doing that.

Will the base configuration 16-inch do everything you need it to do with no lag, Yes.
Will any higher configuration 16-inch do everything you need to do, but FASTER? Of course.
Like, a whole lot faster? Not likely. Noticeably faster, but nothing like twice or three times as fast.
Is it worth it to spend the extra money to have a computer that will do things a little bit faster? That’s your question to answer.

You are fortunate, though, in that there is no wrong answer for you. Any 16-inch you buy will be the best performance Mac you’ve ever owned and will last you many years. It really comes down to figuring out how much you want to spend! 🙂

 

[Drosera]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but maybe there's also WiFi 6 to be considered here, which none of the mac models are compatible with...?

 

[satcomer]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but maybe there's also WiFi 6 to be considered here, which none of the mac models are compatible with...?

There is a DANGER If you have some smart devices that use the 2.4 network! The current crop of IPv6 routers don’t do the 2.4 network!

 

[DukeDevlin]

A faster computer does things faster, that is always true. But, when you move a video clip, and it pops to it’s new spot in .10 seconds or .30 seconds, is that noticeable? More importantly it worth an extra 1000? If you’re exporting a clip and it exports in 12 minutes instead of 16 minutes, is that worth the extra 1000?

Look at these charts:

Two 16-inch MacBook Pros compared

real world speed test results for performance minded Macintosh users

barefeats.com

They pit two configurations against each other and, for the FCPX export, the difference was 10 seconds versus 14 seconds. Across the board, the performance is reasonably close between the two. The biggest difference was with the 3D export and you’ve indicated you won’t be doing that.

Will the base configuration 16-inch do everything you need it to do with no lag, Yes.
Will any higher configuration 16-inch do everything you need to do, but FASTER? Of course.
Like, a whole lot faster? Not likely. Noticeably faster, but nothing like twice or three times as fast.
Is it worth it to spend the extra money to have a computer that will do things a little bit faster? That’s your question to answer.

You are fortunate, though, in that there is no wrong answer for you. Any 16-inch you buy will be the best performance Mac you’ve ever owned and will last you many years. It really comes down to figuring out how much you want to spend! 🙂

You’re right! Thanks a lot. For sure, at the moment basic model is strong enough. But in my mind, I think upgrades allow to manager better future.