Gartner: Apple At 6.1% U.S. Market Share, Up 1.5% From Last Year

[lmalave]

2. Slim MacBook? Don't you mean tiny MacBook? Apple could quite easily make the iPhone Smartphone and the MacBook Nano one and the same.

I don't think so - we're talking about radically different form-factors for a superslim MacBook vs. a PDA smartphone. A MacBook still has to have a decent screen and keyboard, and an iPhone Pro still needs to be pocket size.

Here's what I might expect:

1) MacBook nano: 10.6" widescreen, metallic finish in nano colors, and thinner and more rounded than the current MacBooks (though the slimness will be limited by the optical drive, unless they get rid of an internal optical drive which I don't think Apple will do)

2) iPhone Pro: probably a slider phone with a Treo/Blackberry style qwerty keyboard tucked away. Maybe Apple will innovate here and come up with something better than a slider though. The options I've seen for integrating a qwerty keyboard are:
- regular solid bar-type phone like Treo or Blackberry
- slider phone like LG Chocolate (haven't seen this for a smart phone though)
- sideways slider like Sidekick or T-Mobile MDA
- sideways clamshell like Nokia Communicator

Personally I think both the "slim" iPhone and the "PDA" iPhone will be slider phones. The reason being that I think Apple will design the phones to look almost exactly like the iPod when viewed from the front. So I think the "slim" phone will basically be be a slider iPod nano, and the "PDA" phone will basically be a slider video iPod. Probably they will only be offered in one color to start with, in order to simplify manufacturing and inventory control. Probably silver or black for the iPod nano phone, and black for the iPod PDA phone. Though both phones will have a metal case instead of plastic...

 

[-hh]

Let's do this math...
$1,810,330 - $94,070.00 = $1,716,260.00 stock worth.

I have not sold one share. Now who is laughing. Thank you iPod.

Does this mean you're buying lunch for all of us?

FWIW, I regret not buying some AAPL a long, long time ago...didn't do it because my employer makes it a major hassle to own individual stocks because they apply stricter financial reporting requirements (if I were to set up an automatic monthly purchase, I'd have to report it every month, run it up through management for signatures *every* month, etc, etc. Very painful).


-hh

 

[lmalave]

Check out this to boost Mac OS X market share:

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/business/0,39020645,39284186,00.htm

If Apple does it, Windows (read M$) will be out of business in three years!

I can't believe a team full of idiots at Gartner, probably all making six figures plus, came up with such garbage. They really need to go to business school or just get some common sense. Apple is not a commodity computer maker. Apple is an innovation-based company. Apple is largely insulated from price pressures. It's *DELL* that should be worried. They compete on price and eventually some Taiwanese or Chinese company is going to start crushing them. U.S. companies are eventually going to have to exit the commodity PC market just as U.S. companies had to exit the memory chip market and largely exit the steel and textile manufacturing industries in earlier generations.

So since Apple is not competing on price, they will eventually be limited to probably no more than 10 to 15 percent of the market. But they should be able to remain stable at that level, just as luxury car brands are able to maintain a certain market share.

And as Jobs and others at Apple have pointed out *many* times, their advantage is in controlling both the software *and* the hardware. THAT'S their advantage. Not just the software. It applies not only to Macs but also to the iPod. Compare the Mac experience to a PC experience. Or compare the iPod experience to other MP3 players. The Apple products "just work" because Apple is able to control the hardware that the software runs on. If Apple gives up the hardware/software integration advantage, that will be the beginning of the end...

 

[Clive At Five]

Have you heard anyone say that they are anxiously anticipating Vista? Microsoft will try to generate some synthetic excitement over Vista, but in reality, hardly anyone will really care.

I couldn't disagree with you more.

I've been a Apple-user since infancy, practically, (so don't take me to be a MS fanboy), but I also appreciate PCs. I have a iMac G4 for home and a PC laptop which I used on campus and have continued to use out of college. I recently downloaded and installed Vista RC1, and regardless of its still-beta form, it is surprizingly stable (for basic uses), plus has a gorgeous user-interface (nevermind it's an obvious aqua rip-off). In fact, I'm almost to the point where I want to set Vista as my default OS.

The point of saying all this is that Vista IS going to be a solid OS* and IS going to be a "threat" to OSX. If anything, I think that hardly anyone cares about OSX. To a lot of people, OSX is something they saw once that looked cool but didn't seem like a relevant option given how they used computers (of course they don't know that they're usually wrong). Now there will be a version of Windows that looks and feels like that other cool thing... which is exactly what they want. Average users aren't analytic about their computer purchases like we are. We know Macs are better because we've studied the options... but MS knows most people won't study. And to those people, Windows Vista is going to be a very alluring option... and will keep them from using those brain cells.

These people and everyone else who has made the decision to use a PC (myself included) are greatly anticipating Vista's release (or in my case, Vista SP1), and it will be a welcomed addition to the PC-user's home.

-Clive

*DISCLAIMER - Vista won't likely be very solid until SP1. Vista is/will be a prime example of bloatware (7.5GB installed) due to its backward compatability and poor overall design. Fortunately for PC users, even the premium hardware demands will be met easily enough by today's CPUs. My laptop (2 years old) cannot run Aero Effects or any other special features of Vista, but still runs very smoothly with the features disabled. And, yes, I've had some blue-screens but that's because I was tampering with drivers and settings... something the average user won't be doing. And again, lastly, I repeat that I use a PC to suppliment my Desktop Mac. My PC Laptop was purchased at a time before Intel Macs were available... nor had any prospect of being able to dual-boot to Windows. It was a near-mandatory OS decision due to specific software needed for college classes... and, yes... LAN party gaming (which IS a college requirement, BTW).

 

[IJ Reilly]

What these guys forget, and everyone else who proposes this, is the fact that OS X solely exists to sell Apple's hardware and not the other way around.

iLife, iWork, OS X, Pro Apps all have the single purpose of selling hardware. Apple is a hardware company by choice, it's what they want to do.

They are not a software house and I can't see them trading away their hardware business to gain OS X marketshare. It's not not what Apple is all about.

I think this is a bit of an over-simplification. Apple is a computer company. A computer = hardware + an operating system + software. This was always the way it was until IBM made their terrible strategic errors with the PC. Now we think companies like Dell make computers. They really don't -- they are Microsoft remarketers.

 

[Clive At Five]

1) MacBook nano: 10.6" widescreen, metallic finish in nano colors, and thinner and more rounded than the current MacBooks (though the slimness will be limited by the optical drive, unless they get rid of an internal optical drive which I don't think Apple will do).

This would be rockin', though who knows whether or not it'll happen.

I think they could ditch the optical drive as long as they shipped with a 2GB (4 or 8 maybe *shrugs*) flash drive (which magnetically attached to the side of the compupter ).

Now THAT would be worth investing in, hehe.

-Clive

P.S. I think "MacBookMini" flows better... but Apple pretty much abandoned the well-flowing names with "MacBookPro" .

 

[IJ Reilly]

I couldn't disagree with you more.

I'm sure you could -- go ahead, try me.

With each and every release of a new OS (going back beyond Windows), Microsoft has made hyperbolic claims about how good it was going to be. As anyone who's followed this for a while knows, Microsoft's claims rarely live up to reality. The fact is, a lot of people never even bothered to get onto the XP bandwagon. Do you think they're going to be excited about Vista? Unfortunately for Microsoft, their "good enough" philosophy also works for a lot of their customers. They're used to not being motivated by newer and theoretically better. As you admit, the first version of Vista is going to be a dog, just as the first versions of 95, 98 and XP were. People do learn that the risks can outweigh the benefits. My attitude detector reports that hardly anybody cares about Vista.

All that being said, Microsoft will sell a zillion copies of Vista. Most of those will be through the OEM pipeline. The OEMs will buy it because they don't have a choice. This is how each and every version of Windows has become a "success." It's Microsoft's dirty little secret.

 

[Clive At Five]

With each and every release of a new OS (going back beyond Windows), Microsoft has made hyperbolic claims about how good it was going to be. As anyone who's followed this for a while knows, Microsoft's claims rarely live up to reality.

I don't doubt this, but from someone who has been using Windows since 3.1.1, take my word that Vista is a gigantic improvement over XP. While I agree that MS's claims of grandure aren't justified, there's no denying that Vista is a noteworthy upgrade (rather than an 8-month downgrade until SP1 surfaces).

Unfortunately for Microsoft, their "good enough" philosophy also works for a lot of their customers. They're used to not being motivated by newer and theoretically better.

You're half right and half wrong. Some people wouldn't even consider upgrading (whether it's because they don't know what Vista is / how it's different or due to apathy). More people, however, will (one way or another) become convinced that an upgrade is necessary. They're also convinced that whatever slop MS puts on their plate is good enough (as you suggested). They say, "This upgrade from XP to Vista is good enough for MS so it's good enough for me. No need to explore the other options."

All that being said, Microsoft will sell a zillion copies of Vista. Most of those will be through the OEM pipeline. The OEMs will buy it because they don't have a choice. This is how each and every version of Windows has become a "success." It's Microsoft's dirty little secret.

And sadly, it doesn't matter how they're sold. Once people start using Vista and see that it's an improvement over what they've been using. They won't consider a switch to the Mac. People talk often about iLemmings, but it really goes QUITE understated the number of MS Lemmings there are. (Think "1984" ad.) MS has great power over those who are unconscious to the computing world. Vista is not going to change that. The only thing that will drive people to the Mac is their becoming "conscious." That is much harder to do and Apple deserves MUCH applause for the amount of waking up they've done to the MS Lemmings.

-Clive

 

[bryanc]

Vista will definitely change the landscape, but what effect this will have on Apple's fortunes, and the popularity of OS X is difficult to predict.

I think that there are a lot of people out there who are putting off upgrading until they see what this new landscape looks like. They've got systems in place that, while good enough for the time being, aren't great, and they'd like to see a significant improvement. These folks are running XP SP2 on two year old Dells or something like that... so they're looking to upgrade in the next 6 months, and they've heard a lot of good things about Apple and OS X and they're tempted, but they're going to wait and see how Vista turns out.

If Vista is a dog, and gets a lot of bad media attention out of the gate (this will be exacerbated if Apple can release a Leopard that makes Vista pale in comparison), a lot of these upgraders-in-waiting are going to be pushed over the edge and will buy mac-minis or new mac laptops, knowing that they can fall back to Vista if OS X doesn't work out for them.

If Vista is brilliant, and Leopard turns out to be just a minor upgrade of Tiger, most of these upgraders-in-wating will just buy another Dell like they always have.

The most likely scenario is somewhere in the middle... Vista will get mixed reviews, but will be viewed a a very significant improvement over XP, and Leopard will be a significant improvement over Tiger, but will only have a few features that Vista lacks, and some of the upgraders-in-waiting will take the plunge, but the more conservative will stick with the devil-they-know. As a result, the number of OS X installs will continue to grow, but it won't break the crucial 10% market share that makes it a 'mainstream' OS.

Cheers

 

[mahonmeister]

How does one go about buying stock? Never done it before, except in Economics class and I lost a bunch of fake stock.

I was thinking of buying a couple hundred bucks worth. Any advice? I just want to get my feet wet here and have some fun watching it go.

 

[macidiot]

Not just for interest though - if Apple do not take a firm presence in the rapidly developing (India, China) countries now, they may well face the same uphill battle against Windows they have been fighting for the past whatever years in the US.

Apple can't really compete in those countries. For Apple to have any sort of real presence there, there would have to be some sort of ~$300 Mac. And even at that price it would be considered expensive in India and China.

In those countries (and corporate sales) it's all about low cost commodity pcs. Apple doesn't do that.

Besides, given Apple's current marketshare, there are plenty of gains to be made just in the US. Apple could easily double it's world share just by focusing on the US.

 

[dongmin]

Do you believe that the perpetual delay of Microsoft's Vista OS is allowing Apple to temporarily grab up some of the markey share? I'm not saying that people who would otherwise purchase a Wintel machine are switching to Mac because Vista is not out, but rather that some percentage are waiting to buy their new Core2Duo machine (or other upgrade to their current box) until they can get an full release version of Vista preinstalled on it.

Just a conjecture, but I thought it was worth considering. I suppose we'll find out in the first two quarters of 2007 when Microsoft decides that they're ready to release that bad boy on the world . . .

[JDOG, your post came in while I was still typing mine . . . sorry for the repeat]

We're talking about hardware here, not OS. So Vista should have very little effect on Apple's PC marketshare, unless of course Vista's release encourages people to buy new PCs from Dell, HP, etc.

 

[macidiot]

How does one go about buying stock? Never done it before, except in Economics class and I lost a bunch of fake stock.

I was thinking of buying a couple hundred bucks worth. Any advice? I just want to get my feet wet here and have some fun watching it go.

Open an account with a brokerage.

Pick up the phone or go online and buy stock.

Done.

As far as which brokerage, it's up to you. But I'd really steer clear of any full service brokerage (like Merrill Lynch or Morgan Stanley). They try to rape you on fees. I like Fidelity myself, but Schwab, etrade, etc. are all fine.

Considering the very small amount your investing, fees are a big deal. Try to find one that offers low commision fees.

Oh, and usually there is a minimum dollar amount you need to open an account. I don't know what it is, but it's pretty low.

Finally, considering the small amount your talking about, unless your just doing it for fun, I wouldn't even bother with stock. Just buy an unmanaged S&P index fund. It's mindless and you'll outperform about 90% of the "experts."

 

[IJ Reilly]

The most likely scenario is somewhere in the middle... Vista will get mixed reviews, but will be viewed a a very significant improvement over XP, and Leopard will be a significant improvement over Tiger, but will only have a few features that Vista lacks, and some of the upgraders-in-waiting will take the plunge, but the more conservative will stick with the devil-they-know. As a result, the number of OS X installs will continue to grow, but it won't break the crucial 10% market share that makes it a 'mainstream' OS.

FWIW, the Mac was considered marginal by its critics even when the Mac's market share was close to 15%, so I would not bank on it being suddenly declared "mainstream." Growth is important if only because it suggests the sustainability of the platform to those who might otherwise doubt it, but I don't think there's any magic number that can be expected to shift the perception of the Mac in the minds of the public.

My sense is that the current growth in market share is in large part the iPod halo effect finally happening. People are walking into Apple stores to buy iPods. They carry that Apple logo around their pockets for awhile, and gradually come to the realization that Apple is cool. Apple is really cool now, and this counts for a lot. This is one reason I think Vista won't matter much to Apple, if only because no matter what Microsoft does, no matter how hard they try, and no matter how many features they deliver with Vista, Microsoft will never, ever be cool. In fact, their entire image is the antithesis of cool. It's an image they've cultivated -- like IBM before them: dull, but always there. You don't change that with one OS release. I don't think even Xbox did that for them.

This is Apple's moment. They're looking at a string of green lights right down the road. It sure will be interesting to see how far they go.

 

[mahonmeister]

Open an account with a brokerage.

Pick up the phone or go online and buy stock.

Done.

As far as which brokerage, it's up to you. But I'd really steer clear of any full service brokerage (like Merrill Lynch or Morgan Stanley). They try to rape you on fees. I like Fidelity myself, but Schwab, etrade, etc. are all fine.

Considering the very small amount your investing, fees are a big deal. Try to find one that offers low commision fees.

Oh, and usually there is a minimum dollar amount you need to open an account. I don't know what it is, but it's pretty low.

Finally, considering the small amount your talking about, unless your just doing it for fun, I wouldn't even bother with stock. Just buy an unmanaged S&P index fund. It's mindless and you'll outperform about 90% of the "experts."

Hum. I'll look into an unmanaged S&P index fund. Sounds like a good start. Thanks macidiot.

 

[IJ Reilly]

I don't doubt this, but from someone who has been using Windows since 3.1.1, take my word that Vista is a gigantic improvement over XP. While I agree that MS's claims of grandure aren't justified, there's no denying that Vista is a noteworthy upgrade (rather than an 8-month downgrade until SP1 surfaces).

So what? Really, not be flip, but XP was a big improvement over 98, and 98 was a bit improvement over 95, etc. A very significant number of people simply do not care. If XP or 98 or whatever they are using suffices, then they are not going to take the Vista plunge.

You're half right and half wrong. Some people wouldn't even consider upgrading (whether it's because they don't know what Vista is / how it's different or due to apathy). More people, however, will (one way or another) become convinced that an upgrade is necessary. They're also convinced that whatever slop MS puts on their plate is good enough (as you suggested). They say, "This upgrade from XP to Vista is good enough for MS so it's good enough for me. No need to explore the other options."

Microsoft has taught its customers that the risks can easily outweigh the benefits. That lesson may be finally sinking in.

And sadly, it doesn't matter how they're sold. Once people start using Vista and see that it's an improvement over what they've been using. They won't consider a switch to the Mac. People talk often about iLemmings, but it really goes QUITE understated the number of MS Lemmings there are. (Think "1984" ad.) MS has great power over those who are unconscious to the computing world. Vista is not going to change that. The only thing that will drive people to the Mac is their becoming "conscious." That is much harder to do and Apple deserves MUCH applause for the amount of waking up they've done to the MS Lemmings.

Well it does and it doesn't. If Microsoft is looking for a big upgrade movement, then I think they're not going to get it. And I don't think that a lot people will walk into Best Buy and buy a new PC because they like the look of Vista. As always, I believe the need that drives new PC purchases is to get new hardware, not the newest version of Windows. I think I've got history on my side of this debate. But we shall see!

 

[DTphonehome]

Original Investment - $94,070.00 for 11,500 shares

11,500 x 2 after the split last summer = 23,000 shares

23,000 x 78.71 at todays rate = $1,810,330.00

$1,810,330 - $94,070.00 = $1,716,260.00 stock worth.

I have not sold one share. Now who is laughing. Thank you iPod.

Damn, man, I'd hate to see your tax bill when you finally sell!

Anyway, share-dropping is not very gentlemanly, so I'll keep my figures to myself...but at this point I too have to hold back from selling simply to avoid the huge tax hit. Would be nice if Apple issued dividends though, especially now that they're flush. Make some cash without divesting of the principal.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Damn, man, I'd hate to see your tax bill when you finally sell!

Anyway, share-dropping is not very gentlemanly, so I'll keep my figures to myself...but at this point I too have to hold back from selling simply to avoid the huge tax hit. Would be nice if Apple issued dividends though, especially now that they're flush. Make some cash without divesting of the principal.

Are you calling me a cad, you cur?

Dividends, yes that would be a good idea, what with $10 billion in cash on hand. Microsoft finally decided that their cash horde was becoming a bit of an embarrassment and declared one.

 

[DTphonehome]

Dividends, yes that would be a good idea, what with $10 billion in cash on hand. Microsoft finally decided that their cash horde was becoming a bit of an embarrassment and declared one.

Seriously, the more I think about it, the more upset I am that they aren't offering one. I mean, what the heck are they goint to do with $10 billion? Even the most aggressive expansion and R&D strategy doesn't justify holding onto that. And it would be a great way to offset any damage from the options fiasco. And it would boost the shares 5% (at least) on announcement. They USED to pay a dividend (1987-1995). It's time to bring it back!

 

[shen]

I'm sure you could -- go ahead, try me.

With each and every release of a new OS (going back beyond Windows), Microsoft has made hyperbolic claims about how good it was going to be. As anyone who's followed this for a while knows, Microsoft's claims rarely live up to reality. The fact is, a lot of people never even bothered to get onto the XP bandwagon. Do you think they're going to be excited about Vista? Unfortunately for Microsoft, their "good enough" philosophy also works for a lot of their customers. They're used to not being motivated by newer and theoretically better. As you admit, the first version of Vista is going to be a dog, just as the first versions of 95, 98 and XP were. People do learn that the risks can outweigh the benefits. My attitude detector reports that hardly anybody cares about Vista.

All that being said, Microsoft will sell a zillion copies of Vista. Most of those will be through the OEM pipeline. The OEMs will buy it because they don't have a choice. This is how each and every version of Windows has become a "success." It's Microsoft's dirty little secret.

vista has zero buzz. i have been in this industry for a little too long, and generally a new win OS creates three specific attitudes in people:

1) the gamers/geeks "this will be the greatest thing ever! have you seen all the cool (insert useless feature here) and can you imagine what games will be able to do on this thing?!?"

2) the average person "i don't know, they say it won't crash, and last week i lost everything when (insert virus name here) hit me and this one is supposed to be better about that stuff."

3) the IT department "we will not be installing any of this platform until it has been tested for compatibility and security for our environment. maybe a year."

so far on Vista, the gamers have made a few "maybe it will be good" comments. the average joe hasn't said word one. the IT depts i know all have said they won't touch it with a 10 meter cattle prod.

but we have a 4th user, the MS diehard who is running the beta and RC stuff and keep trying to work up enthusiasm. and nobody cares.

but as you point out, they WILL sell million of copies. all OEM. if they didn't have their OEM channel so locked down with anti-competative measures, they would have perished after that dog release of windows ME......

 

[tophergt]

We're talking about hardware here, not OS. So Vista should have very little effect on Apple's PC marketshare, unless of course Vista's release encourages people to buy new PCs from Dell, HP, etc.

Yeah, that was my point--if there is an imminent OS release, there exists a significant number of consumers who will wait so that they can get Vista for "free." Same concept as not purchasing that iMac or MacBook in mid-march when you know that 10.5 will be out in a month.

 

[Clive At Five]

but we have a 4th user, the MS diehard who is running the beta and RC stuff and keep trying to work up enthusiasm. and nobody cares.

I hope you're not talking about me! I assure you I am no MS diehard. If anything, I'm the gamer/geek, but moreso the latter. I am a fan of technology... and while I wouldn't consider myself raving about Vista, I do recognize that it's a substantial piece of work. Just for reference, I was not impressed with 98, ME (HAH!), or XP, but I am mildly-so with Vista. Also for reference, I am WAAAAY more impressed with Mac OS X than I am with Vista. Maybe it's because I've come to expect pure crap out of MS but Vista is, instead, only a small turd. *shrugs* It's just a matter of perspective.

but as you point out, they WILL sell million of copies. all OEM. if they didn't have their OEM channel so locked down with anti-competative measures, they would have perished after that dog release of windows ME......

I, personally, will buy a copy off the shelf... that is, after I buy myself a shiny new MacBookPro.

-Clive

P.S. Windows ME sucks. hehe. Idiots.

 

[iMikeT]

When one considers Dell's quality of their computers, why are they still #1?

 

[dsnort]

When one considers Dell's quality of their computers, why are they still #1?

I love my Macbook, but I gotta admit, my Dell Inspiron never just shutdown in the middle of a sen

 

[macidiot]

When one considers Dell's quality of their computers, why are they still #1?

corporate sales. When you have large IT staffs and reserves of machines, reliability is less of an issue.