Geek.com's Sander Olson, "Apple is in terminal decline. 970 not enough to save Apple"

posted 2:20pm EST Fri Oct 18 2002 - submitted by Sander Olson at Geek.com

Now that the microprocessor forum is over, I've had an opportunity to examine my notes and reflect upon the conference. There are a number of themes that were apparent during the conference, and a near consensus on several issues.

Some of the panels/speakers' and my observations:

Apple is in long-term decline. Even if Apple adopts the IBM 970, no one at the MPF expressed any confidence in Apple's future. The near consensus was that Apple was in a long term, perhaps terminal, decline, and that the 970 would not be enough to save it. Every year more Macintosh users convert to Windows, and this trend will continue unless Apple comes out with another "insanely great" product.....

http://www.geek.com/news/geeknews/2002Oct/bch20021018016880.htm

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Wow, I have never read another tech boy give such a negative forecast for Apple. He must own shares in MS or just looking to get noticed.

I don't agree though. Apple may have some problems, but all the tech sector is hurting right now. Apple computers are still selling very well, and I am sure they will have new and exciting products in January 2003.

In contrast, I firmly believe Windows and Intel are much more vulnerable, since Linux is becoming a standard in the business and server environment and a number of key business programs from IBM, Sun, Oracle, and alike have been ported or will be ported by 2003.

On the processor front is the VIA C3 which is more than powerful enough to run any business software and is key to why you can get a $199 MicroTel for just $199.

VIA's 1GHZ 5 watt C3 will drive sales in Linux based "Quiet PCs" even further in the mainstream market since corporations are looking hard to cut costs and they realize they don' t need a 3GHZ computer to do wordprocessing, email, customer service, internet surfing, and spreadsheets.

Peter

 

Hmm, not very nice, but he's being practical and looking at things too closely from a purely technical side. Apple's design of computers and OS allows for an 'appealing' factor that makes Apple buying somewhat of an emotional purchase. I don't see Appling going the way of the dinosaurs and it is interesting to see him leave himself an out by putting in that last bit about the 'insanely great' product.

But he also mentioned

PC designers will soon have to design PCs around power consumption. It soon won't be sufficient to simply slap on a heatsink and fan for desktop PCs. Heat pipes, or some other aggresive techniques, will be required to deal with 100 watt and greater microprocessors. Some at the forum thought that dealing with the heat will be relatively easy, others expressed concern.

This is crazy - 100W?!? Makes the new Apple enclosures look like good forethought on the minds of the designers/engineers. But with the added cooling regimes, doesn't that start to sound like we're getting out of the 'desk top workstation' arena and moving up to something a bit bigger. And cooling will all come at a premium.

D