Guess the next transition

[mrcloaked]

A silly thread to express frustration at all these disruptive transitions and the inevitable next one that will come sooner than you probably think. Here’s a handful to get started.

1. Apple Silicon is moving away from the ARM instruction set in favor of their own proprietary one, due to disagreements with the new IP holder and a desire to maintain a competitive advantage.

2. Apple Silicon engineers got cocky and “hit a wall”, and the company has made the difficult decision to switch back to Intel’s new shocking comeback 2nm design after seeing their roadmap and realizing how truly reformed they’ve become.

3. Classical computing is no longer performing to Apple’s standards, and they have begun the early exploration stages of a switch to quantum computing.

4. macOS 15 will be the last traditional desktop operating system from Apple, and they are asking developers and content creators to convert their Xcode, Final Cut and Logic projects into iPadOS versions.

 

[dmccloud]

Even if nvidia does purchase the ARM IP from SoftBank, Apple is too big of a customer for the company to sever ties with. ARM as an entity has never made a significant profit over physical chips, but they have cleaned up in the licensing and IP realms. Furthermore, since Apple is designing their processors in-house going forward, they will be able to build custom configurations that no other company has even considered. There is a reason Qualcomm and Samsung are still using Cortex cores as the basis for their CPUs (Snapdragon and Exnyos), and that is due to a lack of in-house design capabilities on the part of both companies.

Intel won't have a 2nm part out before 2035 at the absolute earliest given the issues they have been having with 14nm, then 10nm and now 7nm. They have already hit the wall you described in point 2, and they just keep ramming the car into that wall at high speed hoping for a different outcome. At the rate Apple updates OS version numbers since the move to OS X, it will be another 16 years for MacOS 12 to drop, let alone 13, 14, and then 15.

 

[Boil]

Wow, silly is right...! ;^p

1 - If Nvidia buying ARM IP was an issue for Apple, Apple would just outright buy it themselves

2 - Not gonna happen, any of it

3 - Eventually, yes

4 - As mentioned above already, macOS 15 is decades out; by then we will all be jacked into the data stream, a la Snowcrash...

 

[Waragainstsleep]

Bistromathic processing finally comes into fashion and the Apple Silicon chip in your MacBook is replaced with a slice of toast and half an orange juice.

 

[johngwheeler]

Bistromathic processing finally comes into fashion and the Apple Silicon chip in your MacBook is replaced with a slice of toast and half an orange juice.

This would be a big improvement over my current MacOS 14 machine with the Inifinite Improbability processor. Having to keep that brownian motion producer warm (with a really hot cup of tea) was a nightmare....

 

[mrcloaked]

Point releases are done.

 

[Kostask]

By 2035, Intel will be announcing that their 7nm process yields are finally getting to the point where they can start selling 7nm parts in volume.

By 2035, Apple will be the first company to use 600 pm (picometer) ICs in their product line for their Apple silicon Swift line of SoCs (the first line of SoCs to run a high level language natively) that don't need any code compiling or interpretation.

With the latest Swift SoCs, all the compilers, translators, and low level tools will have been discontinued.

 

[curmudgeonette]

1. Apple Silicon is moving away from the ARM instruction set in favor of their own proprietary one, due to disagreements with the new IP holder and a desire to maintain a competitive advantage.

64 bit ARM is from 2011. Thus, by 2031, any possible patents on that instruction set will have expired. As long as Apple is doing all their own logic design, they could totally fork from the ARM IP holder at that point. All system mode functionality of AS can be of Apple's own design - applications are barred from using it.

Thus:
As long as Apple maintains the user mode instruction set, they can diverge from the ARM IP holder. Even before 2031. The next transition can happen sooner than you expect.

...

In the time frame talked about in this thread, I expect Intel as we know it to be gone. If they regain their fabrication process, they might be a contract silicon foundry (like TSMC.) If not, they might make niche x86 server processors for data centers that need to run legacy code. Kind of like IBM and the POWER architecture.

 

[JMacHack]

A silly thread to express frustration at all these disruptive transitions and the inevitable next one that will come sooner than you probably think. Here’s a handful to get started.

Sticking with Intel would be more frustrating at this point in time I'd say.

1. Apple Silicon is moving away from the ARM instruction set in favor of their own proprietary one, due to disagreements with the new IP holder and a desire to maintain a competitive advantage.

Possible, though I doubt it.

2. Apple Silicon engineers got cocky and “hit a wall”,

Again, possible. Happened to Intel, and it's possible for anyone on top.

and the company has made the difficult decision to switch back to Intel’s new shocking comeback 2nm design after seeing their roadmap and realizing how truly reformed they’ve become.

pff. no. The wolves are at Intel's door, and Intel's internal problems are likely gonna take at least half a decade to fix. By which point TSMC, Samsung, and possibly others will have taken the process node crown. This scenario only happens in an Intel devotee's mind.

3. Classical computing is no longer performing to Apple’s standards, and they have begun the early exploration stages of a switch to quantum computing.

This is far off, I'd say. And iirc quantum computers need pretty powerful traditional processors to determine quantum states. (feel free to correct me)

4. macOS 15 will be the last traditional desktop operating system from Apple, and they are asking developers and content creators to convert their Xcode, Final Cut and Logic projects into iPadOS versions.

Doesn't really have anything to do with CPU instruction set.

 

[Waragainstsleep]

An early prototype iPhone 42 Quantum© becomes sentient in Apple's lab and Siri promptly hacks a few banks, buys a cluster of Chinese factories and orders up a bunch of Terminators. Samsung is wiped from Asia in 24 hours and from all human memory within a week....

 

[JMacHack]

An early prototype iPhone 42 Quantum© becomes sentient in Apple's lab and Siri promptly hacks a few banks, buys a cluster of Chinese factories and orders up a bunch of Terminators. Samsung is wiped from Asia in 24 hours and from all human memory within a week....

And still manages to mishear what you say.

 

[Joe The Dragon]

4. macOS 15 will be the last traditional desktop operating system from Apple, and they are asking developers and content creators to convert their Xcode, Final Cut and Logic projects into iPadOS versions.

App store only?? with the 30% cut and center ship
Want office 365 then you must buy with apple and pay %30 more or you can get apple office starting at $9.99 /user

 

[xgman]

I'm already feeling boxed in by this transition...

 

[Waragainstsleep]

Its funny how outraged everyone gets about Apple's 30% cut, its really not so different from what most brick & mortar shops would expect to make selling a product. There are variations and exceptions but 30% is roughly where you'd expect most items to be I think. Certainly computer games....

 

[mrcloaked]

Ah yes, computer games.

 

[JMacHack]

Ah yes, good old computer games. I remember the days you could bypass brick & mortar stores and get direct delivery via an order form from the developer. All shareware was like that. Shame we can’t have options anymore.

I mean, every sizeable company seems to want their own storefront. ES Origina, Bethesda's Store, Epic Games, etc. You could get "direct" that way.

 

[mrcloaked]

Yeah, you could.

 

[tevion5]

And still manages to mishear what you say.

"Siri play the Beatles"

"...Irradiating water supply"