H1N1 ("Swine") Flu

[drewsof07]

Is there a link about the boy playing in sewage. It's not a part of the Guardian article.

I can't find anything saying he contracted it while frolicking in swine excrement. But from that Guardian article, I gather that they suspect this farm was a source of transmission. It also has two other possible scenarios that are being investigated as well. This suggests they haven't even determined the original source yet, only speculating.

La Gloria is suspected because samples taken on 3 April from a five-year-old boy, Edgar Hernandez, are the earliest confirmed case of the disease. Edgar recovered last month but hundreds of other villagers said they had earlier suffered similar illnesses.

The village is five miles from a pig farm run by Granjas Carroll, a subsidiary of the Virginia-based company Smithfield Foods. Residents have long complained about sewage and bad smells.

 

[Apple //e]

I can't find anything saying he contracted it while frolicking in swine excrement. But from that Guardian article, I gather that they suspect this farm was a source of transmission. It also has two other possible scenarios that are being investigated as well. This suggests they haven't even determined the original source yet, only speculating.

i cannot understand why you would even think that kids would want to play in fecal matter.

i saw a tv report from the area in question and they claim that the citizens have been complaining about the airborne pollution for quite a while without any answer from either the pig farm or the local authorities

basically, the fecal matter would dry and turn into dust and get blown all over the town with the wind.

 

[TuffLuffJimmy]

i cannot understand why you would even think that kids would want to play in fecal matter.

What?! Then what did you play with as a child?

 

[Dave00]

flu strains are notorious for mutating on a whim

the same isnt true for say small pox virus or whatnot

not all viruses are created equal

Well, the issue actually is that influenza is not one virus, there are multiple subtypes and eradication is not an option like it is for polio and smallpox. However, your argument that vaccines cause mutation does not hold water. Immunization is a different method of defense than, say, an antiviral drug. Viruses can incorporate genes in response to a specific method of action of an antiviral. There's no gene that would naturally be able to resist the ramping up of a specific immune response to that virus.

 

[bhingsto]

Apparently a friend of mine here in North Vancouver came down with Swine Flu. She said she was the 20th case in Canada and that it was slightly worse than the normal flu.

 

[iPhoneNYC]

There was an interesting story in the NY Times this weekend saying that washing your hands a lot is far more effective than masks:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/03/weekinreview/03rosenthal.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=swine flu&st=cse

 

[macryder]

Asia swine flu scare

I'm really beginning to worry if this disease will reach the Philippine area. I really don't like that our country might have the first case of this deadly flu. I hope the WHO will find a cure for this.

 

[drewsof07]

I hope the WHO will find a cure for this.

The best cure is prevention

 

[TuffLuffJimmy]

I really don't like that our country might have the first case of this deadly flu.

Note that this flu is no more deadly than the regular flu.

 

[themoonisdown09]

Note that this flu is no more deadly than the regular flu.

Really. I don't understand what the big deal is. There is no reason to treat this flu any differently.

 

[TuffLuffJimmy]

Really. I don't understand what the big deal is. There is no reason to treat this flu any differently.

Thank you! If you read a few pages back everyone jumped down my throat for saying the same thing.

 

[themoonisdown09]

Thank you! If you read a few pages back everyone jumped down my throat for saying the same thing.

I do understand why it was a big deal when it was first discovered because they had no idea how serious it was, etc. But now, there is no reason for panic. If you do get the symptoms, just take the same medicine you would if you had a normal flu and you'll be fine.

 

[Eanair]

Thank you! If you read a few pages back everyone jumped down my throat for saying the same thing.

A few pages back was before the health authorities were making statements that the virulence of this new strain is less than originally feared, based on the first reported cases in Mexico.

I can only speak for myself, but I was not jumping down your throat for saying it was not as virulent as feared, but because you made such claims without substantiating them with evidence - links to CDC or WHO statements, and so on.

You made what came off as definitive statements without any links or references to scientists or organizations that could substantiate what you were saying. For example, you said the following, but didn't provide any links to scientists or health organizations that could confirm it was true.

...some have been affected by other H1N1 strains and thus their bodies are already more resistant to this flu

This is what the CDC had/has to say about that hypothesis:

THE SECOND QUESTION WAS ABOUT PRIOR EXPOSURE TO H1N1 IN TERMS OF NATURAL IMMUNITY AND THAT IS AMONG THE HYPOTHESES WE HAVE RIGHT NOW, WHETHER THE ELDERLY OR OLDER POPULATION MIGHT BE SPARED BECAUSE OF CIRCULATING H1N1 DISEASE THAT THEY'VE BEEN EXPOSED TO YEAR AFTER YEAR. WE DON'T HAVE INFORMATION ON THAT YET.

- CDC briefing, April 26, 3009

And again:

Other possibilities are that, perhaps, older people have some protection, because each year we're all exposed to flu viruses and you develop some immunity. If there were some cross protection, that's another thing that might explain why we're seeing more in younger people and less in the older folks. But that question isn't -- don't have a firm answer on that yet.

- CDC Briefing, May 4, 2009

So, you do have a firm answer while the CDC and associated scientists do not? If you do, then I request you provide where this definitive information is from, or else clarify that your statements are speculative.

IMO, there is a difference between saying, "Based on the evidence of the cases thus far, it appears as though this will be as virulent as a regular flu" and saying, "Trust me, this is a regular flu." Your posts seemed to be of the latter tone. I was taking issue of such a definitive claim when there were still many unknowns about the virus and its virulence. And there still are.

We don't know if the virus will surge in the fall flu season, and if it does, will the virulence be any different from what we are experiencing now? More? Less? If at all? These questions are still unanswered, and I found it a bit premature to make definitive claims that this was just a regular flu virus while the health authorities were saying that there's currently a lack of data to precisely know the nature and virulence of this new strain, especially as we move through the summer and into the next flu season.

I'm not saying, nor have I ever meant to say, that ZOMG this virus will be the end of humankind as we know it - go stock up on food and supplies and go live in your basement with face masks. In fact, I think even the face mask stuff is overblown and silly/stupid. Sneezing into your elbow or arm and washing your hands are the most effective ways to combat this thing - I totally agree.

 

[RHatton]

The media will keep this alive long after its gone. I can see the headline on CNN now. "Next up, how Swine Flu has put a hurt on the Economy"...

 

[TuffLuffJimmy]

A few pages back was before the health authorities were making statements that the virulence of this new strain is less than originally feared, based on the first reported cases in Mexico.

I can only speak for myself, but I was not jumping down your throat for saying it was not as virulent as feared, but because you made such claims without substantiating them with evidence - links to CDC or WHO statements, and so on.

You made what came off as definitive statements without any links or references to scientists or organizations that could substantiate what you were saying. For example, you said the following, but didn't provide any links to scientists or health organizations that could confirm it was true.

Sure, but at least I was smart enough to not over react to the situation before anyone knew anything about the virus. I was smart enough to know that until something comes up suggesting otherwise we should treat it as just another flu. I'm not some fool who freaks out because the news says to.

It was not unreasonable for me to say it was anything more than a regular flu, it was a lot more unreasonable to make anything more of it without any evidence.


I'm expecting quite a few apologies, actually.

Alas it looks like I'll never get those apologies.

It really doesn't pay to be logical or rational around these parts.

 

[P-Worm]

Sure, but at least I was smart enough to not over react to the situation before anyone knew anything about the virus. I was smart enough to know that until something comes up suggesting otherwise we should treat it as just another flu. I'm not some fool who freaks out because the news says to.

It was not unreasonable for me to say it was anything more than a regular flu, it was a lot more unreasonable to make anything more of it without any evidence.


I'm expecting quite a few apologies, actually.

The thing is Jimmy, why is it considered 'smart' to have treated this as the regular flu when it had the potential to be serious? To me, this is the same as the people that say we shouldn't worry about CO2 issues because there is a possibility we can't change the course of global warming. Isn't it always better to err on the side of caution?

P-Worm

 

[TuffLuffJimmy]

The thing is Jimmy, why is it considered 'smart' to have treated this as the regular flu when it had the potential to be serious? To me, this is the same as the people that say we shouldn't worry about CO2 issues because there is a possibility we can't change the course of global warming. Isn't it always better to err on the side of caution?

P-Worm

It was smart because new flus come up all the time and it's ridiculous to make any more of one flu over any other without a reason.

 

[iBlue]

It was smart because new flus come up all the time and it's ridiculous to make any more of one flu over any other without a reason.

It sells more headlines though, doesn't it? Fear is a big seller.

 

[Cave Man]

It was smart because new flus come up all the time and it's ridiculous to make any more of one flu over any other without a reason.

The reasons have been made clear to you. This virus differs from seasonal influenza in many respects. But your personal incredulity and/or ignorance gets in the way. To summarize:

• Fatality rate about 10-fold higher in Mexico than what is seen with seasonal influenza
• The principal death demographic was young, healthy adults, instead of the elderly and very young that seasonal influenza typically kills
• It is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine

Considering the steps taken by the global health community, there's a good chance this virus will disappear over the next few months. But we cannot know for sure until late this year or early next year.

 

[Music_Producer]

It was smart because new flus come up all the time and it's ridiculous to make any more of one flu over any other without a reason.

You know, after going to med school and doing my residency for 3 years - I would much rather be safe than sorry. It's always better to take a lot of precautions even though *you* might deem them unnecessary.

I've seen a lot of doctors who have an attitude like yours. They don't worry if a patient complains about something minor .. typically with a response such as 'Oh it's nothing.. don't worry. Take an aspirin and you'll be fine'

Reminds me of the time when we carried out a blood pressure and general physical at a college.. the reaction we were met with was mostly 'Why the heck do we need checkups? We're in the 18-20 age group.. we don't have blood pressure problems'

Out of the 150 students that we checked - 25 had a bp reading of 160/110 - which is serious hypertension. No symptoms, nothing - their diets were great, exercised regularly, etc. You can imagine what would have happened if these students never had the basics checked for another 10 years or so.

So I am really, really SICK of people like you acting cool and treating everything like it's not so serious. I'd rather have people over-react and take precautions such as washing their hands regularly and maintaining personal hygiene than having them be completely oblivious about it.

For one I am certain that this media 'hype' as most non-concerned people name it, has played a major part in the public being aware of this situation and it very well played a part in the flu not spreading as rapidly as it should have.

In 1918 there was no internet, no efficient system to get out the message to people globally (more importantly, a quicker way to communicate) and of course, no potent medications to treat the flu. Consider yourself lucky that we have this knowledge and the science to treat and prevent these things from happening rather than just whistling about and complaining that there is too much hype. Don't like the hype then turn off the tv.

Figures people around here get worried more about what the next iphone will have than a new mutant virus

 

[Music_Producer]

The reasons have been made clear to you. This virus differs from seasonal influenza in many respects. But your personal incredulity and/or ignorance gets in the way. To summarize:

• Fatality rate about 10-fold higher in Mexico than what is seen with seasonal influenza
• The principal death demographic was young, healthy adults, instead of the elderly and very young that seasonal influenza typically kills
• It is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine

Considering the steps taken by the global health community, there's a good chance this virus will disappear over the next few months. But we cannot know for sure until late this year or early next year.

Don't bother wasting your time explaining to folks who won't understand - seriously, most people take life for granted or have never had a serious illness to appreciate the steps that the global health community takes.

 

[TuffLuffJimmy]

You know, after going to med school and doing my residency for 3 years - I would much rather be safe than sorry. It's always better to take a lot of precautions even though *you* might deem them unnecessary.

No duh. But you should treat this like any other flu (until there is reason to believe it's something more). And of course you should always wash your hands and keep things clean. I've carried a bottle of hand sanitizer with me everywhere since freshman year.

 

[ErikCLDR]

My elementary school neighbor has been confirmed as having a case of swine flu. She got it on a family trip to cancun but is better now.

 

[dextertangocci]

CaveMan,

Why do you bother? You're never going to change the mind of someone that uninformed.

By profession, I'm an infectious disease epidemiologist. I have worked for and with the WHO, CDC and a whole bunch of NGOs in outbreak investigations and control on four continents. A few days ago, when this first broke publicly, I tried explaining a few things about the outbreak control process on another popular forum. Of course, none of it mattered because on the internet, Google gives anyone the ability to quote things out of context and argue whether they're capable of interpreting or even understanding the facts they're looking quoting. After all, they saw the movie Outbreak, so they must know how things work. One guy even told me that he hoped that I died, because I told him (politely) that he was using the term "vector" wrong.

I'm just waiting for the day that some guy unknowingly quotes a paper I've authored as proof that there's peer reviewed evidence that I'm wrong.

If I get swine flu, I bet you I won't die from it

 

[Jaffa Cake]

Despite the big fanfare surrounding its production and distribution, we still haven't received our NHS 'Swine Flu' advice leaflet, as every household in the UK apparently has done.

I can only conclude that the Government wants me dead.