iPhone 16 Pro Historical shipping estimate data?

[RealMonster]

Does anyone know at what point the iPhone Pro tends to have immediate shipping and arrival? Right now it looks like there's about a 20 day lead time in my area--if I order now, it'll arrive between Nov 6-11th. By comparison, if I were to order an ordinary iPhone 16, it would arrive on Tuesday.

I don't live close enough to an Apple Store to do pickup.

This delay is obviously not the end of the world. My plan right now is to wait until the delivery time for the Pro is about the same as the base model, and order then. In the meantime, I'll accumulate points on my credit card and then trade them in for Apple eGift cards. But if I'm going to be waiting until June next year or something, I'll figure out a more reasonable order time.

I tried googling for it, but whatever combo of words I'm using doesn't return anything useful. I can sometimes find articles about how the iPhone 16 Pro compares to the iPhone 15 Pro *right now*, but I can't find anything for later months.

 

[Tech_Fan]

Define “close enough”? Is the closest Store not more than an hour away? If it’s not, I would recommend you use the Apple Store app, check the status of the specific iPhone you’re seeking and then when it’s available, buy it and then go and pick it up, if you’re able to.

Otherwise, you may find shorter shipping times by going through your carrier or a Best Buy store.

 

[FreakinEurekan]

It's hard to compare, because the release countries are different. Last year the iPhone 15s were released in around 40 countries at first, and additional countries were released a few weeks later. This year, it was a broader release of 58 countries right out of the gate, and an additional 19 a week later. That MIGHT mean a faster ramp-down of wait times, but really it's anybody's guess.

 

[RealMonster]

Define “close enough”? Is the closest Store not more than an hour away? If it’s not, I would recommend you use the Apple Store app, check the status of the specific iPhone you’re seeking and then when it’s available, buy it and then go and pick it up, if you’re able to.

Otherwise, you may find shorter shipping times by going through your carrier or a Best Buy store.

It's 4 hours away. I'm not willing to go through a carrier or Best Buy, because I have Apple store credit (because of the CC points trade-in that I mentioned). It IS worth noting that there are definitely plenty in stock if I went to those stores, though.

It's hard to compare, because the release countries are different. Last year the iPhone 15s were released in around 40 countries at first, and additional countries were released a few weeks later. This year, it was a broader release of 58 countries right out of the gate, and an additional 19 a week later. That MIGHT mean a faster ramp-down of wait times, but really it's anybody's guess.

I'm in Canada--I should've mentioned that up front.

 

[FreakinEurekan]

Canada's always in the first wave - but that's not what I meant by country releases. The phones are all made in a few factories, the destination country isn't really relevant. However the release schedule is set up such that there will be a "Reasonably" strong supply of phones at release. Last year that was 38 countries' worth. This year it was 58. So either the production capacity is up, or the expectations are down - either way, it'd throw off the calculus.

 

[RealMonster]

Canada's always in the first wave - but that's not what I meant by country releases. The phones are all made in a few factories, the destination country isn't really relevant. However the release schedule is set up such that there will be a "Reasonably" strong supply of phones at release. Last year that was 38 countries' worth. This year it was 58. So either the production capacity is up, or the expectations are down - either way, it'd throw off the calculus.

Ah yeah, I see what you mean. But I'm not really looking for EXACT data, just a rough timeframe. If I'd like to try to wait this out, will I be waiting weeks? Months? Until the release of the iPhone 17? I figured the iPhone 15 Pro data would be a good enough proxy for what I'm looking for, even if, as you say, it's not exactly going to be identical. (FWIW, the articles that I've seen that talk about current demand vs. last year's demand seem to indicate that the lead times are essentially equal.)

 

[FreakinEurekan]

(FWIW, the articles that I've seen that talk about current demand vs. last year's demand seem to indicate that the lead times are essentially equal.)

Apple's pretty good at supply chain.

If I had to guess. once we're through the Holiday shopping season I'd expect they're pretty much on-demand available.

 

[NoBoMac]

If I had to guess. once we're through the Holiday shopping season I'd expect they're pretty much on-demand available.

This. Holiday season might cause a bump in delivery times. Or not (eg. demand might be slow this year).

Either way, bite the bullet in November as the holiday return window will probably start beginning of November. Can get the phone and have a longer window to play with the new device to decide if want to return or not (aka until Jan 2025).

 

[RealMonster]

@FreakinEurekan @NoBoMac Solid advice, thanks to you both.