Chalk this one up to Apple marketing !!
When the iPhone SDK was announced and demoed, Apple had developers come on stage and say, "Hey, it took us just a few weeks to get this app running and I hadn't done any Mac programming before". The image of the guy demoing Spore (or Monkey Ball) is so compelling. "Hey we did it in just three weeks!!"
Yup, I swallowed it too but its so ridiculously fake. Did they do the artwork and graphics modeling in three weeks? Did they do the audio soundtrack in three weeks? Did they come up with the concept and fine tune it in three weeks? Did they write the AI for the game in three weeks? Duhh, no! And when they say "we", do they mean the two geeky guys on stage? No, they conveniently ignore the fact that they had the support of a full team working on various aspects of the app, either specifically for the iphone or previously for other platforms. And they probably had expert Mac/Apple developers to guide them through the process of developing the iPhone port.
It makes for excellent marketing but its fake, fake, fake !
On the flip side, the reality is that Apple provides great development tools and they provide them for free. The iPhone SDK is powerful and well designed. The monetary cost of entry for a wannabe individual developer is low. And thats more than what you would get for other platforms - which can cost thousands of dollars and still provide crappier tools! (check out what it takes to create apps for the wii, psp, ps3, brew, palm or blackberry)
But as with writing any good application, it takes phenomenal time and effort to develop and fine tune the concept, put together different aspects of the app, write the code, test it, revise it and then maintain it over a period of time. If you have done any Mac OS X programming before, its easier to make the jump, otherwise you have additional platform specific hurdles to cross (Objective-C, Cocoa, Xcode tools, the various frameworks). Its feasible to come up with a trivial app but ITS NOT EASY to come up with anything more complicated. My hats off to those individual developers who have really good apps out there.
Chalk this one up to Apple's strategy and marketing prowess. Apple obviously wanted to make the "iPhone platform" successful and what better way to do it then make it look ridiculously easy and line up hordes of wannabe developers? It costs Apple nothing. In fact, they make money on it upfront, even before a single copy of an app is downloaded. Forget the $99 enrollment fee, its chump change for Apple. First, you gotta have a Mac to develop for the iPhone. Cha ching! And you also have to get an iPhone and a two year contract of which Apple supposedly gets a 20% cut! Cha Ching! And they get a 30% cut off all sales. More Cha Ching. And the more people who develop for the iPhone, the more potential developers they will have for the Mac in the future because the tools are so similar.
They have all the upside and very little downside. Brilliant! Balmer and Blackberry must be sh***ing in their pants.
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So, having said the above, let me go off on a tangent and make a couple of predictions. ( Yes, I like to put my foot in my mouth. )
1) The App store will have thousands of apps, but the filtering process to separate the men from the boys will start once the iPhone SDK goes through a few revisions and it becomes harder to develop and maintain an app over time. Some will be successful, others will fall by the way side. A lot depends on how the SDK evolves and the competitive pressures it will face from other platforms.
2) Expect the iPhone SDK to get closer to the Mac OS SDK, perhaps even merge at some point. Its hard to imagine that Apple will Not come up with other touch devices such as a touch tablet that needs features from both Cocoa and Cocoa Touch. I can't imagine Apple keeping the two separate for a long time (many years), at least not internally. They may still get marketed as two separate SDKs.