How long before a million sold?

[rockstarjoe]

Anyone want to take a guess at how long it will take before a million iPhones have been sold? If there are (roughly) 2,000 AT&T and Apple stores selling it, each store would need to move 500 units. I could see that happening before next Friday. What do you think?

 

[72930]

Two days...if online sales start...

 

[kdarling]

Anyone want to take a guess at how long it will take before a million iPhones have been sold? If there are (roughly) 2,000 AT&T and Apple stores selling it, each store would need to move 500 units. I could see that happening before next Friday. What do you think?

There are rumors that there's only 250,000 units available right now.

In any case, do those sales people work off commission? Wouldn't that be great?

 

[Doozy]

My guess, and it is totally just a guess, but I think it will be September before they hit a million.

In comparison, how long did it take for the zune player to sell a million.

 

[rockstarjoe]

Anyone want to take a guess at how long it will take before a million iPhones have been sold? If there are (roughly) 2,000 AT&T and Apple stores selling it, each store would need to move 500 units. I could see that happening before next Friday. What do you think?

There are rumors that there's only 250,000 units available right now.

In any case, do those sales people work off commission? Wouldn't that be great?

I think they have probably made more than 250,000 by now.

AT&T employees do get a commission on sales, I think, but I don't know if / how that applies to the iPhone, since you take it home to sign up for a contract.

 

[retnuh730]

I'd say anywhere between the first week if stock is good, to a month or two if not.

 

[carfac]

My guess is it will start off strong, but not too overpowering. I bet in 2 weeks or so, there will be 20% return rate or so. It will not make a million until 2008 at least.

 

[Small White Car]

Two days...if online sales start...

Pretty much! I'm guessing 2 to 4 days.

I'd think they'll sell a half-million in real stores in under a week. If online sales match that rate you'll see a full million sold in 2-7 days.

 

[underwater]

they appear to be shooting for a million unit weekend, but I'd guess it will take a week just due limits on transaction volume at stores.

 

[tobefirst ⚽️]

My guess is it will start off strong, but not too overpowering. I bet in 2 weeks or so, there will be 20% return rate or so. It will not make a million until 2008 at least.

You really think that one in every five people will return it? I'm just asking honestly.

 

[nbs2]

AT&T employees do get a commission on sales, I think, but I don't know if / how that applies to the iPhone, since you take it home to sign up for a contract.

My understanding is that the iPhone carries a rather nice commission. Discussion with some of the ATT employees conveyed that it made them hate the loss of time off from 6/15-7/15 a little less....

 

[Sbrocket]

My guess is it will start off strong, but not too overpowering. I bet in 2 weeks or so, there will be 20% return rate or so. It will not make a million until 2008 at least.

Are you serious?
That sounds like a more-than-slightly off-base prediction to me...1 return for every 5 sold?

 

[Project]

I think it will take a while. Perhaps a month, maybe 2

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[Virtualball]

I don't see people spending 600 on a phone they've had 6 months notice for returning it a week later...

 

[diamond.g]

Well if every Mac user buys one, then not too long at all.

Otherwise it depends. The PS3 didn't hit 1 million till a few months later.

How many iPods do (does??) Apple sell a month? Safe guess may be about a quarter of that number.

I wonder if it will end up like the Wii (ie impossible to find for almost a year).

 

[rfrankl]

As long as there is enough inventory, I see 1 million easily in the first month.

 

[kalisphoenix]

A week, I hope. I even heard the groundskeepers here (University of Akron) talking about it.

 

[Steve1496]

My guess is a week.

But you know, I hope they have at least 50-100 a store. I'm number ~25 and a lot of people are getting two, just to sell on eBay. I'll be pissed if I don't get one after waiting because someone wants to sell it on eBay.

Steve

 

[Mac-Addict]

Thats still only America! When it gets to Europe in the first week or so (If its released at the same time over Europe) I can honestly see it hitting 2 to 4 million sold.

 

[diamond.g]

My guess is a week.

But you know, I hope they have at least 50-100 a store. I'm number ~25 and a lot of people are getting two, just to sell on eBay. I'll be pissed if I don't get one after waiting because someone wants to sell it on eBay.

Steve

I have the distinct feeling that the iPhone is going to turn out like the PS3 in the ebay department. I looked earlier today and people were asking for like 1300 dollars. Unless Apple is going to try to keep the supply artificially low, ebay sales won't work and you would see a mass influx of returns (with that lovely 10% penalty).

 

[gco212]

Probably a month or two. It's shaping up for there to be no shortage, and Wallstreet is estimating that Apple will sell 200 to 400 thousand this weekend. Seeing as how that will take care of a lot of the initial demand, from there you can expect maybe 100 thousand or so per week for a couple months.

 

[carfac]

You really think that one in every five people will return it? I'm just asking honestly.

Really, yes. I think a lot of people are gonna get it because of the hype, just to check it out. I think a lot of those people may figure oh well after a couple days... may not give the keyboard a chance, may find their IT dept says no, get the $600 buyers remorse blues, etc.

Two days ago, I would have said even higher. But kudos to ATT for upping the EDGE bandwidth. As long as that STAYS up, sure, 20%. If that EDGE enhancement fails, or goes back down, I would say higher.

 

[carfac]

A week, I hope.

I doubt there are 1 million completely MADE as of today... I doubt even 1/2 million as of today. Certainly no more than 500K.

I even heard the groundskeepers here (University of Akron) talking about it.

Talk is cheap. iPhones are NOT. I know lots of people who areTALKING about it. People who bought PS3s and XBox 360s and Wiis. Mostly what they say is, "It's cool, I can't wait to try one, but I will wait and see how it goes."

Other than on this forum, I know no one who is going to buy one.

 

[stainlessliquid]

Judging by the small lines at just a few apple stores I would say it will take a long time to get to 1 million. This is nothing like a console launch where there are giant lines at every video game store in every city in every state, even consoles dont sell 1million right away. I dont think it will be very hard for people to get an iphone tomorrow or the next day, since its doubtful they will run out of stock unless apple severely limited supply.

Plus in cities like mine nobody cares. None of my friends had even heard of the iphone when I asked them about it, and they could care less when I tried to show them. Even at college I have yet to hear a single person talking about it. It seems like Im the only one that knows it exists.

 

[Phobophobia]

It seems like Im the only one that knows it exists.