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When the sales start dropping; they know they are not going to release a new MacBook Air for about a year, so they can afford to let any returns sit in the warehouse for several months before pushing them out to boost sales.
 
Last year the refurbished devices started showing up in September or October.
 
no pt in waiting with edu discount 50-10 plus $100 itunes card
and by sep oct the new ones will be a few months away
 
There is already one thread about somebody's 2012 MacBook air dying... So I'd say "any time now" for the refurb store.:D
 
So I'd say "any time now" for the refurb store.:D

Doubtful. Makes more sense to use refurbished systems to fulfill warranty-replacement needs than to use freshly built / new systems. Until Apple builds up whatever they consider an adequate "reserve", I doubt you'll see refurbs available for purchase.
 
I bought a 2011 13'' MBA last August when they were first released. I started watching the Apple refurb site in Oct and a few would pop up and be immediately purchased. Didn't see consistent large numbers of units for purchase until December. I finally bought a refurb 11'' in Jan.

It normally takes a while for them to be available. If you want an 8Gb model that may take even longer.
 
If you qualify for the Education Discount, I think it works out better to just buy new (at least until the Ed promo with gift card expires).
 
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