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The answer really depends on what you intend to use your computer for, over time.

You list yours as being an "M4 Mac mini, macOS Tahoe, 256GB SSD, 16GB RAM".

If it's your main and only computer, eventually you will probably feel the squeeze of it having a small SSD and not a lot of RAM. (I would've gone for 24 or 32 GB and a 1 TB SSD.) If you keep using it after Apple stops the OS and security updates for it, you will eventually find that app software updates will no longer support the last supported OS you're running. At that point you'll have to either live with it, or hope there's something like OCLP years from now to let you run an unsupported OS on an Apple Silicon Mac, or else get rid of it and upgrade to a more recent computer.

In my case, I have a 2012 Mac mini with 16 GB, a 1 TB hard drive and I added a 240 GB SSD to it and converted the HDD to my Time Machine volume. It still runs macOS Mojave 10.14.6. It has a very specific function - it's a storage/media server (and Blu-ray ripper) in my living room. I tried using it to play media (via Kodi) but found that my Blu-ray player was a better media player so I just let the Mac mini do storage and media serving (via Plex). Because of its specific function I have no need to update it (yet). A more general-purpose machine will run into the limitations I mentioned above.

There's no reason to think that your M4 Mac mini can't last for years and years, until you run into those limitations.
 
I have heard of old MacBooks that still run great after 10+ years and was wondering if I should expect that from my Mac Mini?
Until Apple quits supporting it, which will probably be 6 years? Possibly longer?

I'd go in assuming m4 could lose support in 2031

I'm not clear on if Linux will really be available for Apple CPUs or not, so that you could keep using the hardware.
 
The hardware will last longer than the software. Chances are good that the first wall you will hit is that Apple builds an OS that has higher requirements than the computer is able to achieve. Usually much later comes 3rd Party software that requires a newer OS - even if the newer app does essentially the same thing as the old.

Security patches are always a concern with 'older' products (as on new - be wise in what you are doing), but if the hardware is fine and the software you have runs happily on it and does what you need it to do, an upgrade for upgrade's sake may only benefit Apple and the app developers.

Though my 'daily' use machine is currently a M2 Mini, I still have a 2017 MacBook Air (the last year with all the ports - a feature I'm still thankful for and use surprisingly often when travelling) bought new, and now running Monterey. I use it for work and casual travel / lap on the balcony. It still runs all the software I used on it new - some of which still gets updates - and many of the same apps are on the M2. I have no reason to believe it will kack on me anytime soon, despite no longer being supported by Apple.
 
I have heard of old MacBooks that still run great after 10+ years and was wondering if I should expect that from my Mac Mini?
15-17 years or so. Since there is nothing to pillow or break (like a battery or moving parts).

Even if there would be some rare unfortunate accident (like dead SSD), you will easily be able to run macOS off external USB-C SSD, which will be above the same speed as internal, or at least it is gonna be usable.

Software-wise, while support of current macOS will probably end somewhere in 2032, the computer will be usable well beyond the macOS “expiration date”, it is better to read it as “best before”. Even when Safari stops opening webpages (it will happen 3 years after macOS support stops), there will be plenty of 3rd party browsers to be able to open webpages.

Security-wise, I think for actual work machines this issue is overrated, no one is going to hack your old machine unless you do something that might get someone’s interest. Sure I wouldn’t recommend open banking apps on this old computer, but even if you do it is not unsafe since most banks have had 2fa for a long time already
 
10 years is a big ask, and keep in mind that after about 7 years apple considers it vintage, i.e., no support and it will most likely not be able to run current version of macos, so there's a security perspective to consider.

Depending on how you're using your computer will largely dictate how long it will be viable. Surfing, facebook, office apps, it will last a long time.
The other problem with these AS Macs is that they don't fully support Linux whereas the Intel Macs did. You could repurpose a retired Mac and move it to Linux. I have a 2012 Mini that is happily and easily running the latest version of Ubuntu. I plan to do the same with my 2018 Mini.

This is why I only buy the cheapest entry level Macs like the Mini. You cry less when it's no longer supported.
 
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The other problem with these AS Macs is that they don't fully support Linux whereas the Intel Macs did. You could repurpose a retired Mac and move it to Linux. I have a 2012 Mini that is happily and easily running the latest version of Ubuntu. I plan to do the same with my 2018 Mini.

This is why I only buy the cheapest entry level Macs like the Mini. You cry less when it's no longer supported.
Yeah, with how short they're supported, it does make me go HMM about going too nuts getting high end.

It's tempting though.

Hell, maybe a 24GB Macbook Air would actually be okay for use as a basic PC for me
 
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