How long will the current generation Apple Watch be a desirable object?

[bob24]

We all know how it is with an iPhone: you buy the latest generation and it is very cool, but after a year you are already missing some features, after 2-3 years it gradually becomes slow to run the current versions of iOS, and after 4 years you are not getting any-more software updates - and it is definitely not that desirable anymore.

With Apple selling $10000 versions of the Apple Watch, do people think they are planning on such a short lifecycle?

I know there are a number people who can afford to shell out 10k every 2-3 years for a new gadget. But unless you also are a technology geek, if you are that wealthy will you not want to wear something more exclusive than a mainstream consumer device on your wrist? (even it it is made of gold, it will still be the same "made in China" watch everybody else is using)

 

[AFDoc]

We all know how it is with an iPhone: you buy the latest generation and it is very cool, but after a year you are already missing some features, after 2-3 years gradually becomes slow to run the current versions of iOS, and after 4 years you are not getting any-more software updates - and it is definitely not that cool anymore.

With Apple selling $10000 versions of the Apple Watch, do people think they are planning on such a short lifecycle?

I know there are a number people who can afford to shell out 10k every 2-3 years for a new gadget. But unless you also are a technology geek, if you are that wealthy will you not want to wear something more exclusive than a mainstream consumer device on your wrist? (even it it is made of gold, it will still be the same "made in China" watch everybody else is using)

First off if you buy ANYTHING to be cool you're not cool no matter what you buy and those will be dropping 10k+ for an edition apple watch don't care about the money they are spending on a watch.

 

[maflynn]

As soon as the consumers think its no longer cool.

Who knows how long. Consumers are a fickle bunch.

Personally, I don't buy products because they're cool but rather they do something I need them to do. The iPhone is what I need, the Macs are computers (I own 3), but I also have a Surface Pro 3, because it does the job better.

 

[bob24]

First off if you buy ANYTHING to be cool you're not cool no matter what you buy and those will be dropping 10k+ for an edition apple watch don't care about the money they are spending on a watch.

Maybe I didn't pick the right word. What I meant by cool is that it still is something you want to use and you don't feel desperate next to someone who owns the latest generation (I think most people in this site would not want to be using a 5 years old iPhone).

And that was my other argument: if money is no object, are you going to wear on your wrist something that is made in China (nothing against China but Swiss made sounds nicer to most people) and has the exact same design as what everybody else is wearing aside from the material.

 

[MH01]

I expect an updated version every year, and like the iphone they will give you a reason to update. So probably it will be "cool" for 12 months before you need to update to a new version to remain "cool"

The question will be, what features they will add to make you update, I suspect more sensors and battery life. I suspect they could have launched with a greater battery life but held back.

 

[bob24]

As soon as the consumers think its no longer cool.

Who knows how long. Consumers are a fickle bunch.

Personally, I don't buy products because they're cool but rather they do something I need them to do. The iPhone is what I need, the Macs are computers (I own 3), but I also have a Surface Pro 3, because it does the job better.

I definitely don't buy Apple products to be cool, but I can buy them because I think they are cool and I enjoy using them.

So lets rephrase: how look will the Apple Watch do enough for most people so that they don't feel like it is outdated?

 

[bob24]

The question will be, what features they will add to make you update, I suspect more sensors and battery life. I suspect they could have launched with a greater battery life but held back.

Yes, I think the questions is how major the upgrades will be.

I bought a new MacBook Pro 18 months ago and even though Apple updates their models regularly there is nothing currently making me want to replace it, and I am pretty sure it will be another 18 months before I feel like I am starting to miss out on features I want to have.

There is no way the same would happen with an iPhone, and as far as the iPad is concerned the lifecycle for most people seems to be somewhere in between an iPhone and a laptop.

I am just not very sure yet where the Apple Watch will stand in term of lifecycle compared to these other products.

 

[MH01]

Yes, I think the questions is how major the upgrades will be.

I bought a new MacBook Pro 18 months ago and even though Apple updates their models regularly there is nothing currently making me want to replace it, and I am pretty sure it will be another 18 months before I feel like I am starting to miss out on features I want to have.

There is no way the same would happen with an iPhone, and as far as the iPad is concerned the lifecycle for most people seems to be somewhere in between an iPhone and a laptop.

I am just not very sure yet where the Apple Watch will stand in term of lifecycle compared to these other products.

A good question.

Naturally a computer will have the longest life cycle. With the iphone being the shortest.

If apple decides to follow the iphone cycle with the watch, its going to be a very expansive iphone accessory to update on a early basis.

 

[bob24]

If apple decides to follow the iphone cycle with the watch, its going to be a very expansive iphone accessory to update on a early basis.

Yes this is exactly where I was coming from As it stand the watch is an iPhone accessory , but as opposed to the phone where part of the cost is often "hidden" by carrier subsidies, consumers will see the actual price tag for the watch (making the upfront payment to get it larger that what most people will be paying for their iPhone). I am wondering if Apple is planning on convincing people to pay that additional price as often as they get a new phone (not saying it is impossible, but certainly not easy) or if they are going to position the Apple Watch as a longer term "investment".

 

[MH01]

Yes this is exactly where I was coming from As it stand the watch is an iPhone accessory , but as opposed to the phone where part of the cost is often "hidden" by carrier subsidies, consumers will see the actual price tag for the watch (making the upfront payment to get it larger that what most people will be for their iPhone). I am wondering if Apple is planning on convincing people to pay that additional price as often as they get a new phone (not saying it is impossible, but certainly not easy) or if they are going to position the Apple Watch as a longer term "investment".

I think apple will get greedy and expect you to buy a new iphone and watch each year.

I was hoping that they would offer an upgrade program for the edition version, cause frankly for its price, its crazy that it would fall behind in functionality on a yearly basis.

I suspect that Android advances in wearbles will result in apple making a new model each year, already at launch, the apple watch is not bringing anything innovative that Android wearables do not have. Im just glad the moto 360 came first, cause it raised the bar, though I suspect the new motor 360 will push apple to update next year....

I expect apple to push the iphone and watch on a yearly update cycle and aggressively. They have all but given up on ipods, and given how successful the iphone is, an accessory for it, would be a major cash cow.

In now way can I think of the apple watch as an investment though. Maybe if you buy one, never open it....... maybe 10-15 years down the track you might make money.....

 

[bob24]

I think apple will get greedy and expect you to buy a new iphone and watch each year.

I was hoping that they would offer an upgrade program for the edition version, cause frankly for its price, its crazy that it would fall behind in functionality on a yearly basis.

I suspect that Android advances in wearbles will result in apple making a new model each year, already at launch, the apple watch is not bringing anything innovative that Android wearables do not have. Im just glad the moto 360 came first, cause it raised the bar, though I suspect the new motor 360 will push apple to update next year....

I expect apple to push the iphone and watch on a yearly update cycle and aggressively. They have all but given up on ipods, and given how successful the iphone is, an accessory for it, would be a major cash cow.

Yes I broadly agree with this (including your pour about the Edition one). I guess it is just me but if this is how Apple is going to play it, I can't understand how they will find enough people who are seeing enough value to buy a new Apple Watch that often.

In now way can I think of the apple watch as an investment though. Maybe if you buy one, never open it....... maybe 10-15 years down the track you might make money.....

Absolutely, hence the quotation marks

 

[Reason077]

How long will the current generation Apple Watch be a desirable object?

11 months. Give or take.

 

[0007776]

I was hoping that they would offer an upgrade program for the edition version, cause frankly for its price, its crazy that it would fall behind in functionality on a yearly basis.

The edition one seems to be designed for people who made millions in Silicon Valley, and I doubt they care too much about spending 10K a year for the watch assuming it interests them at all.

 

[bob24]

The edition one seems to be designed for people who made millions in Silicon Valley

As long as they don't work for or own a company that is competing with Apple ;-)

Apple must also see China as a huge potential market for the gold version:

Plenty of people who like showing off expensive watches.
Plenty of people who like showing off Apple products.
Gold is even more a symbol of wealth there than it is in the West.

 

[MH01]

The edition one seems to be designed for people who made millions in Silicon Valley, and I doubt they care too much about spending 10K a year for the watch assuming it interests them at all.

If I made made millions, I would not be buying a cheap 10K watch

I'd be getting a Tourbillon and some class.

Someone smart enough to make millions from Silicon Valley is not going to be comfortable having a $10-17K watch that has the insides of a $350 watch, my opinion.

 

[odds]

Alright, doesn't look like anyone in here is being very *realistic* in this thread.

To answer the OP: The first generation Apple Watch will be a desirable object for many *years* to come.

1. We already know the battery can be replaced at an Apple Store, so complaints of degrading battery life will not restrict the device in terms of longevity.
   
   
2. The S1 is encased in one package, as we already know. However, even if the S1 is not replaceable, the Apple Watch first gen will still run for years (2-7 maybe). If the S1 *is* replaceable, you can bet your sweet $1,000 that the Apple Watch first gen will be a highly desirable product even a decade from now!
   
   
3. REMEMBER: There are plenty of people who still use the iPhone 4 out there. The iPhone 4 certainly isn't a highly desirable object, of course, but the iPhone also certainly degrades in functionality much more quickly than the Apple Watch will because there are more components in the iPhone, less modularity (esp if the S1 is replaceable, again), more vulnerability to damage (drop damage, shattered screens, etc.).
   
   
4. The Apple Watch screen just can't get that much better. The Apple Watch *is* a watch, after all. The only thing I can imagine that's better than a tiny Retina display on your wrist (a la the Apple Watch) is a tiny projector on your wrist that displays holographic images and videos (a la R2D2 in Star Wars, but better). I don't think the micro tech for holographic projection is coming to our wrists anytime soon. Do you?

Lastly, I hope I'm wrong about this point, but I don't think we're going to see nearly the pace of progress with the Apple Watch as we've seen with the iPhone from 2007-present. The Apple Watch literally represents the pinnacle of consumer-level microtechnology. We all know how slowly Li-Ion battery technologies are progressing these days. Sure, Apple will certainly be designing smaller, more efficient, and faster SoCs but even those advances only do so much to help battery life.

TL; DR: The Apple Watch is going to be quite desirable for many years to come, especially if Apple decides to offer S1 upgrades!

 

[bob24]

However, even if the S1 is not replaceable, the Apple Watch first gen will still run for years (2-7 maybe).

I don't disagree here, but lasting 2 years or lasting 7 years is very different

 

[Ubele]

It probably will stop being desirable after a couple years, but, being a first-generation product, it will become a collector's item and therefore highly desirable in about 20 years.

 

[Poochi]

I think apple will get greedy and expect you to buy a new iphone and watch each year.

I was hoping that they would offer an upgrade program for the edition version, cause frankly for its price, its crazy that it would fall behind in functionality on a yearly basis.

I suspect that Android advances in wearbles will result in apple making a new model each year, already at launch, the apple watch is not bringing anything innovative that Android wearables do not have. Im just glad the moto 360 came first, cause it raised the bar, though I suspect the new motor 360 will push apple to update next year....

I expect apple to push the iphone and watch on a yearly update cycle and aggressively. They have all but given up on ipods, and given how successful the iphone is, an accessory for it, would be a major cash cow.

In now way can I think of the apple watch as an investment though. Maybe if you buy one, never open it....... maybe 10-15 years down the track you might make money.....

Would the battery degrade in that case to the point that it's dead out of the box in 10 to 15 years sealed in the box?

 

[chris975d]

If I made made millions, I would not be buying a cheap 10K watch



I'd be getting a Tourbillon and some class.



Someone smart enough to make millions from Silicon Valley is not going to be comfortable having a $10-17K watch that has the insides of a $350 watch, my opinion.

This. Exactly. So many people assume that those of us who buy watches in the price range do so just because of the price or that it's gold. Where is that misconception coming from? Generally we buy them because we are a fan of the history and all the artistry that goes into making them. True watch enthusiasts don't buy watches just for the bling. And true watch enthusiasts make up the majority of people who spend money on watches at this level. Sure there are some middle eastern sultans or whatever that just buy gold to be buying gold, but that's not the case generally. Apple is missing big time here.

 

[odds]

I don't disagree here, but lasting 2 years or lasting 7 years is very different

Very true. iPhone 4 was released in 2010 and it's on its last legs now in 2015. I'd wager that the Watch will last at least a couple years longer than an iPhone 4, however, because of its relatively simple design (external and internal) though.

 

[0007776]

Would the battery degrade in that case to the point that it's dead out of the box in 10 to 15 years sealed in the box?

Probably, but most people who spend the money to buy something like that sealed in the box wouldn't ever open it to use it.

 

[Poochi]

Probably, but most people who spend the money to buy something like that sealed in the box wouldn't ever open it to use it.

Then the problem is how do you know the box is actually factory sealed and the watch is inside? If you never open it to verify the content and you are not the original owner who bought it from Apple?

 

[bob24]

This. Exactly. So many people assume that those of us who buy watches in the price range do so just because of the price or that it's gold. Where is that misconception coming from? Generally we buy them because we are a fan of the history and all the artistry that goes into making them. True watch enthusiasts don't buy watches just for the bling. And true watch enthusiasts make up the majority of people who spend money on watches at this level. Sure there are some middle eastern sultans or whatever that just buy gold to be buying gold, but that's not the case generally. Apple is missing big time here.

Absolutely.

I can see how Apple is expecting to find customers in China or oil monarchies in the middle east. But I am not sure about Western countries. But then, there are a probably enough rich people who want to show off their wealth and have an iPhone in China for Apple to sell quite a few

 

[0007776]

Then the problem is how do you know the box is actually factory sealed and the watch is inside? If you never open it to verify the content and you are not the original owner who bought it from Apple?

You hope the original owner is trustworthy, because if it has any extra value from being unopened opening it to check will get rid of that value.