1. The tablet market could either go the route of the pc market; where in 20 years iPads only have a 15% market share, but they make 40%-ish of the total profits in the category. 2. The tablet market could go the route of the mp3 player marker; where apple created the market and crushed any competition (zune? Galaxy player?).
I think the tablet market will be like the mp3 player market, unless google forces manufacturers to use a standard version of android with no mods (a la windows to an extent). The market is too heavily reliant on developers for software and developers don't want to develop and iOS version, and then 5 or 6 android versions, plus a windows phone version, and an rim version. Most app developers aren't big name software companies with big time resources. Skype is a good example in the phone market of a company that won't support every android model ever produced. Skype video calling is only supported on 5 or 6 android phones, out of maybe 30 phones that are video capable. Say what your want about their app development strategy, or lack there of. Unfortunately, many developers think just like they do. They don't see the value in developing their app multiple times for the same base operating system, because the device manufacture all want to be a little be different. If android were like windows, android developers could develop 1 app, not 5 or 6.
Android and HP just don't have the ecosystem maturity that iOS has. That is what's drawing people to iPads. People know when they buy and iPad, that there will be a crap load of apps, magazines, books, movies, music, and other things to use. android is more of a collection of manufacturers selling devices with no ties to the device once it's sold. They're selling hardware and the think that if they have the best hardware, then the software will just fall into place. Unfortunately for them, that is not happening.
I looked at a samsung galaxy tab 10.1 and it looks great. I might even buy one if the prices drops to 299 or so. While I was playing with it, I couldn't help but think about the apps I use on my iPad. Are they even available on android, and are they available for this specific device? I don't want to drop even $150 and find out that half of the apps I want to use don't even work on my model.