That's a really good way to look at it.
To add on to that - with Apple controlling "it all" now, I would expect them to push forward more than they were able to do the last decade plus with Intel's "progress" being a big limitation.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
How many years do you think the base m1 air can hold up?
- Thread starter kang8609
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
That's a really good way to look at it.
To add on to that - with Apple controlling "it all" now, I would expect them to push forward more than they were able to do the last decade plus with Intel's "progress" being a big limitation.
With your stated usage, I am inclined to say 7+ years, but that is based off of the historic trend of Intel CPUs having only limited yearly growth. With Apple Silicon, an entirely different era of computing may be on the horizon, so I think predicting the future is even more hard than usual. I don't think MS Office is going to require a 16 core CPU and a 32 core GPU anytime soon, but you never know. Maybe they bring back an Augmented Reality version of Clippy that demands at least a M4?
I've gotten 7+ years of use out of my last 3 Macs. I can't imagine that Apple would make some type of radical shift again, in the next 7 years, so any of the original batch of M1 Macs should work fine for the foreseeable future. One of the things that could benefit the M1 lifespan more so than any previous Intel Macs, is their lower energy use and heat generation, not to mention the fact that the batteries will not be subjected to the same recharging schedule, which could have a positive effect on device life overall.
If I had to make bets on the thing that will drive upgrades sooner than 7 years, will be Apple's development of better and more powerful AI systems. But that's a discussion for a different thread.
If I had to make bets on the thing that will drive upgrades sooner than 7 years, will be Apple's development of better and more powerful AI systems. But that's a discussion for a different thread.
The best hope for longevity is Apple itself promoting that, as they often do, through long software support cycles.
Apple, however, is also the largest threat to said longevity, as they've also equally shown a propensity to push push push things forward and all but force upgrades at times.
iOS is obviously a bit different as it's more locked down and closed than even m1 macOS, but now that Apple controls the whole stack, I very much think the future of the Mac will more resemble how it's been on iOS as opposed to how it's been with Intel inside Macs.
i.e. Apple controls the whole stack now. If it's of interest to them, they'll be able to push things forward at whatever pace they want -- (or, much better, pull things with super desirable huge performance and/or feature leaps)
The old rules just won't apply anymore.
Apple, however, is also the largest threat to said longevity, as they've also equally shown a propensity to push push push things forward and all but force upgrades at times.
iOS is obviously a bit different as it's more locked down and closed than even m1 macOS, but now that Apple controls the whole stack, I very much think the future of the Mac will more resemble how it's been on iOS as opposed to how it's been with Intel inside Macs.
i.e. Apple controls the whole stack now. If it's of interest to them, they'll be able to push things forward at whatever pace they want -- (or, much better, pull things with super desirable huge performance and/or feature leaps)
The old rules just won't apply anymore.
Generally I agree, however one thing I recall from Apple is that when moved from 68k to ppc and then again from ppc to intel there were some things that did not get upgraded/recompiled right away even from Apple and relied on their built in emulator at first. As subsequent OS versions (and apps) were released they actually performed better over time. I’m unclear if this is happening again (with them leveraging Rosetta 2) and that the next OSes might be even further optimized for Apple Silicon...
5 to 7 in my opinion
entry level MacBooks are ahead of average consumer computers so you gotta take capabilities to count especially when software and hardware changes
entry level MacBooks are ahead of average consumer computers so you gotta take capabilities to count especially when software and hardware changes
I didn't read all of the replies here, but it really depends on how long Apple wants to support and optimize the software for M1 based Macs. Remember the original iPad was supported for 2 years (iOS 5) and when the iPad 2 received the last major release of iOS, it was slower than a (dead) dog. If going by AX series devices, it seems 5-7 years is when things start to get less rosy. I'd like (and hope) to see 7-9 years like I was able to with a Mid 2010 MacBook Pro, but I wouldn't hold my breath. With M1, the days of installing macOS on unsupported Macs might become a thing of the past.
Apple was effectively EOL'ing 7-8 years for their Intel Macs. I have a Late-2012 iMac and it only now stopped accepting OS updates, forcing me to buy something newer to run Big Sur. I can't see Apple targeting LESS than that for today's M1's; in fact I can see a 10-year EOL going forward. In practical terms a 2010 MacBook Pro came with 4GB RAM (max 8GB) and now -- a decade later -- a 2020 MacBook Pro comes with 8GB (max 16GB) so base RAM has doubled in a decade. It follows, then, that a decade from now the minimum RAM shipped in the entry-level config will be 16GB (max 32GB). Even today a 4GB Mac remains usable for most tasks so I assume in 2030 an 8GB Mac will be the same. By 2030, of course, the mid-to-high spec systems will be bananas but to answer the question asked in this thread -- yes I believe a minimum 2020 M1 will still be totally usable a decade from now.
Thinking philosophically about the Apple Silicon revolution, the System-on-a-Chip (SoC) is going to have a huge impact on the way people maintain their computers going forward. Until now it was (almost) always possible to gradually upgrade components of your Mac's as you needed more capability or capacity. I've got a 2007 iMac that shipped with 1GB RAM, a couple years later I doubled it to 2GB, then years after that I went to 4GB. I replaced it with a new iMac in 2012, which started with 4GB then went to 8GB then finally 16GB. Had I been forced to keep my 2007 iMac at 1GB I probably would've replaced it years sooner; had I been forced to keep my 2012 iMac at 4GB I probably would've replaced it too. That's where we are with Apple Silicon now. There is no more adding RAM (or internal storage capacity). So Apple will probably do things that make owners *WANT* to upgrade happily rather than *FORCE* them to upgrade angrily. If Apple can figure out how to do that then their switch to Apple Silicon will be incredibly profitable for them.
Almost the whole stack. Big Sur isn’t available for older iMacs because Broadcom no longer provides updated drivers.
No. This is not good advice. Require is the wrong word. A better way and more accurate way to think about future Mac OS updates is to say the OS will POTENTIALLY UTILIZE more ram but that does not mean it will require it to run well and it’s a 99.9% certainty it won’t REQUIRE more than 8gb of ram or even more than 4gb.
I would say a good 5-6 years With no issues but with how often I upgrade my devices I doubt I keep it longer than 2-3 years.
I’m still occasionally using a 2011 MBA 11” with just 4GB RAM, but I have a newer machine for regular use. It’s not the best anymore but it’s useable for light browsing and word processing along with some Excel use. So if a 9-year old Intel machine is still going, I think the new M1s should last a while.
I should add a disclaimer: I’m not the type of person to upgrade OS straight away. I’ll happily stay on an older version if it suits my needs. I rarely ever use the fancy new features, so I don’t feel like I’m missing out. Obviously if there’s a severe security hole that needs patching, then it’s probably worth updating, or if you need an app that isn’t compatible with older OS versions.
I still have a 2011 MBA, base model. It's a bit slow but does everything I need to do. I'm trading it in on a new MI MBA base model with better screen resolution and color reproduction. I was amazed that Apple is giving me $90 for the 2011.
For me, at this price I’d avoid trading it and just keep my old MBA in case the new machine has issues, so I have a fallback. Even if it’s a slow one!