how many....

12 at least

 

Unfortunately Tim Cook said last Sept that they have no plans to discuss numbers for the Apple Watch, so I doubt we'll be getting the same Press Release like we do for the iPhone and iPads.

 

really good question. Im thinking 1-1.5 million? Does that seem high or low to you guys?

 

I was wondering this also. I'm going to guess 500-750k...?

 

I think that's probably really high actually. But nobody really knows.

 

Some, many, fewer, if not more.

 

Not in the millions, YET. I would say a good chance of over 500k and under 800k. Jeez these guys are about to make a ton of money

 

They will only announce if it's a huge number most probably. Not in their best interest to announce anything short of mind blowing.

 

I doubt they will release actual numbers since they have already said they won't break it out in their financial releases. However, we might be able to get a sense in July when we compare revenue in their Accessories segment, where the Watch sales will be reported. We are entering what is historically the 2 slower financial quarters (since iPhone sales usually taper off in anticipation of the new model in September), so the number crunchers will be attempting to glean as much as they can.

Remember, it took 74 days for the first iPhone to sell 1 million. While Apple sells 200 million iPhones a year, this will appeal only to a small fraction of that customer base at first. Even 3-5% suggests they could sell 6-10 million this year.

 

Yeah it's an interesting question. How much do they need to sell to count as a success I wonder? A quick Google threw up this:

'10 million: Record number of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus sold in launch weekend.'

I would say your guess of 1 million isn't too far off?

 

Some of the analyst estimates for production of stock at launch pegged 3 million units available at launch with an additional 5 million per month produced after that, but, then there was the news of production rates being halved due to poor yields at one of the factories or something.

Still, regardless, and given the pre-order outlay, I'd guess at least 1.5 million pre-ordered. But, given the fickle nature of people and the long wait time, I wouldn't be surprised if that number churns massively over the coming weeks and is very likely why Apple will say nothing. I think part of the reason for the wonky estimated shipping dates is that they are expecting many to order, go shop, then change their minds either to a different style or just cancel entirely.

There are so many more variables for this launch than a typical "techie" product launch that it can't really be compared to monitored in the same way. Apple Watch success will probably not be meaningfully measurable for 18 months and at least 2 more "style" releases (another Fall band series, and the following Spring series.)

Still, I'd be surprised it it was less than a million solid pre-orders.

 

wonder if they will mention anything in terms of # of watches sold at their Q2 FY2015 earnings release on April 27.

 

I'm not so sure it's as many as a lot of you seem to think.

As we've discussed before, I don't know anyone who wants an Apple Watch. Maybe I'm not typical, but a lot of the people I know have iPhones and a lot have MacBooks.

The late shipping dates might be because they're playing clever games, or it might be because they haven't made that many yet.

I'm not knocking the watch. No-one is more excited than I am about it.

I just wonder what the reality is. Right now.

 

The initial run was estimated for 5 million according to WSJ which should include shipping from april to june.

 

More then Anroid wear sold all last year combined.

 

I think when they run out of the initial stock (3-5 Million) they will start to list as "out of stock' like they have for the edition models in china as well as the modern buckle bands.

 

Heh. If you believe people on this forum, then...

Whatever the sales number is, about half will be returned because they were bought only as extra comparison devices!

As in, "I didn't know which one I want, so I ordered two, and I'll figure it out when I see them."

 

I don't think many people will do that. A lot of people don't have extra cash laying around to do so, and those that do could see the watch in the store. People are also limited to 2, though there are obviously ways around that.

 

Do we count the scalpers also? Thats where most of the stock went...