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They would have to validate their algorithm against people riding bikes outside of the lab for VO2 Max estimates to be even remotely valid when cycling, but there are so many more factors in play when riding a bike that it'd be impossible to create a usable model.
Yes, but in a very specific case the Apple Watch can now pair with power meters on bicycles, so conceivably Apple could gather exact power mapped to heart rate on either outdoor or indoor cycling workouts for people who have done this and get a cardio fitness reading. But, as I said earlier, I agree that they would not be able to if you don't have a power meter - there is no way to know if you are pedaling or coasting and at what effort when you are pedaling on a bicycle without a power meter.
 
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Yes, but in a very specific case the Apple Watch can now pair with power meters on bicycles, so conceivably Apple could gather exact power mapped to heart rate on either outdoor or indoor cycling workouts for people who have done this and get a cardio fitness reading.

Hmmm! I didn't know about power meters on bikes. That certainly could change things.

I believe they're not just mapping to heart rate though. In that paper they cite that they also used readings from the Sp02 sensor (which is of course not available in newly released models).

I'd think that a VO2 Max estimate made with just heart rate and pace alone would be garbage, but add in Sp02 and you're probably able to make a better guess about the general level of O2 consumption.
 
In general, VO2 max readings on Apple Watch typically only update after a brisk walk, run, or hike outdoors for at least 20 minutes with stable heart rate data, so doing one of these today should result in a new reading.
 
Thanks all. Now I’m clear how to trigger the Vo2 max reading - will just go for a run instead of bike ride :)
 
Don’t think so. You get other readings that are updated even if they don’t change. Why not vo2 max
Yes, it will update after a run, walk, or hike of sufficient length. Even if it is the same figure.

my last outdoor run was on April 30, same day as the last vo2 max reading.

I’ve done several outdoor bike rides since then and this should trigger an updated reading.

I still don’t have a technical reason why vo2 max cannot be triggered or why it would need an outdoor run to produce an updated estimate. Makes no sense.

It does not base VO2 max estimates on cycling workouts. It could, of course, but presumably the algorithm it uses hasn't been based upon cycling workouts, just run/walk. (and hike is just a walk anyway)
 
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