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They would have to validate their algorithm against people riding bikes outside of the lab for VO2 Max estimates to be even remotely valid when cycling, but there are so many more factors in play when riding a bike that it'd be impossible to create a usable model.
Yes, but in a very specific case the Apple Watch can now pair with power meters on bicycles, so conceivably Apple could gather exact power mapped to heart rate on either outdoor or indoor cycling workouts for people who have done this and get a cardio fitness reading. But, as I said earlier, I agree that they would not be able to if you don't have a power meter - there is no way to know if you are pedaling or coasting and at what effort when you are pedaling on a bicycle without a power meter.
 
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Yes, but in a very specific case the Apple Watch can now pair with power meters on bicycles, so conceivably Apple could gather exact power mapped to heart rate on either outdoor or indoor cycling workouts for people who have done this and get a cardio fitness reading.

Hmmm! I didn't know about power meters on bikes. That certainly could change things.

I believe they're not just mapping to heart rate though. In that paper they cite that they also used readings from the Sp02 sensor (which is of course not available in newly released models).

I'd think that a VO2 Max estimate made with just heart rate and pace alone would be garbage, but add in Sp02 and you're probably able to make a better guess about the general level of O2 consumption.
 
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