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Two more years and Flash will be Technosaurus Rex for web use.

And only three more years before HTML5 becomes a standard specification.
http://www.w3.org/2011/02/htmlwg-pr.html

Let's hope the draft-time between now and then continues smoothly and, unlike last time, there's not too much difference between what parts of the draft spec are incorporated into browsers, and what proprietary extensions get added into each and every browser...
 
so 10% at the announcement of the iPad... here we are ONE year later already up more than 50%.

How much do you think this is in thanks to Apple?

Two scenarios-
A) The Apple iPad was never released... Therefore the followers aren't pushing out tablets of their own (at least yet). Where do you think it would be? maybe 20%?

B) The Apple iPad was released like it actually did. But Apple 180'd it's stance on flash. "Yes we acknowledge that in order to get the full web experience at the current point in time flash is necessary. HTML5 is the standard of the future, but until we get there we will continue to work side-by-side with Adobe to unveil the perfect flash experience on the best tablet in the world!" this is exactly what a lot of people wanted Apple to do. Now here we are a year later. STILL no flash on tablets (Xoom included) and we would probably only be at like 25% HTML5 adoption...

Apple has such a heavy influence on things

Here's one thought- is it possible Google would still be supporting H.264 if the iPhone/iPad supported Flash?
 
Realistically it's only two formats. Theora just doesn't really count.

The fight between h.264 and webM is very unfortunate, I agree.

I'm surprised that Ogg Theora is overlooked. It's supported by Firefox.

This is a good site... http://html5test.com/ ...and I see a lot of red marks for video. The only one Firefox supports is Ogg Theora. That's why my job as a webmaster is tough. In order to support the video tag, I have to support the video four different ways...

  • WebM (Chrome)
  • Ogg Theora (Firefox)
  • h.264 / MPEG-4 (Safari)
  • Flash (Old versions of Internet Explorer)

I don't like Flash. It just hasn't progressed as fast as it should have. But unfortunately, it is still an important part of web video.
 
I'm surprised that Ogg Theora is overlooked. It's supported by Firefox.

Firefox 4(since beta1) also supports WebM (and Chrome supports Theora as well).

But I think unless Apple plays nice and starts supporting WebM on Mac/iOS, h264 is going to win mostly due to the iPad.

And in the end once everyone expects h264, Chrome will probably start supporting h264 again.

Personally I dont really care anymore, since the latest Flash version, i'm totally happy with it.
 
Realistically it's only two formats. Theora just doesn't really count.

The fight between h.264 and webM is very unfortunate, I agree.

I agree too. Google is pushing WebM, supposedly in the name of "openness," but they support a 100% proprietary technology in Flash...
 
I support HTML5 playback via H.264, with Flash fallback. But in general, HTML5 video is so fragmented that it's a joke at this point. 3 formats for 3 browsers, plus Flash fallback is just out of control, and H.264 only with Flash fallback is not supportive enough for desktop use. I'm using HTML5 H.264 solely for mobile device support, and I could care less about supporting all the various formats on the desktop at this point.

Why do you care about desktops? ;)
http://incompetech.com/gallimaufry/care_less.html
 
I agree too. Google is pushing WebM, supposedly in the name of "openness," but they support a 100% proprietary technology in Flash...

Heh... "supposedly" is a great word. Google doesn't seem as trustworthy to me lately. I'm suspicious that a new format is being developed instead of simply supporting Theora.

If Chrome supports Ogg Theora, and Firefox supports Theora, then Apple could support it too. I think that's the problem though. Apple should have supported this when the HTML 5 video tag was being standardized. Because these companies couldn't reach a standard, now webmasters are left with this mess.
 
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