mozilla already implemented ogg in firefox 3.5, which is their way of establishing the facts.
wikimedia foundation is converting all their media to ogg, thats their way of establishing the facts.
Apple has safari tied with quicktime on OSX already, and probably is working on pushing H.264 to iPhone (dont be too enthusiastic, it gonna take a long time), thats their way of establishing the facts as well.
at the same time, IE will not implement the media tag at all. so the draft unlikely to be as widely accepted as flash in any fashion.
The W3C groups are filled with fractions with their own calculation and interests. Its getting more and more difficult to do anything.