umm... Me Doth Thinkest Thousest daydreameth Too Mucheth.
apple has a niche market, and it will continue to cater to the same market. 60% of world share, do you have any idea what that number is? and nothing currently shows that in 10 years will have that much control. do the math.
where do i find you after 5 years?
That's exactly my point - Apple will continue to serve a niche market - it has no 'personal ambition' in enterprise but that doesn't mean ti won't help someone who does?..
Currently there is no way IBM can break the MS monopoly on enterprise ( servers and Office for example) on Windows platform but by becoming the only serious player on the Apple platform they could effectively, for the first time, offer a complete enterprise solution that acts as a true alternative to Microsoft. I'm sure Apple will team with them to make sure their products work well.
Now admittedly Apple's market share (depending on source) ranges from 6-8% right now but imagine if IBM began shipping world class enterprise alternatives to MS - entire companies would make 'the switch' -
Now for that market share to begin to seriously take off were talking the jump from selling 10 million macs a year to, say, 30 million - that could easily happen if corporate began a mass 'switch'.
Apple only need to double their own personal market share to dwarf MS in turnover and profit - that put's them in a seriously strong position.
10 years ? well, let's look at a roadmap
Years Now to 2011 - IBM continue to slowly build their platform and trickle a migration towards Apple.
2011 - Apple release next generation OSX in conjunction to support IBM enterprise mass migration. IBM take a few corporate customers with them. That year Apple's consumer/SOHO market share would already be 15% as predicted by most economists right now - so add onto that another 2 million macs for the 'first wave' of IBM. Your now at, say 18% market share.
2012 - Corporate trials complete - Major studies and news stories starts to break across the world. It's official - Apple & IBM = Better enterprise.
Right now NOBODY would say Apple is 'enterprise' king - creativity : yes, personal productivity : yes, enterprise back end solutions : no!
With a unanimous acknowledgment that Apple was finally 'the best in enterprise' the mass migration would begin - and it would come fast.
2013/14 - Microsoft recognise Apple are at 25% market share - there is little they can do to turn back the flow. What do they do - Just in case they release OSX Exchange X - Now they can compete with IBM in enterprise and begin to stem the migration and either way they're still selling millions of copies of Office and now back end server solutions for mac. They can 'hold water' . To ignore the OSX platform at this stage would be suicide.
2017 - Companies have continued to switch during the last 3/4 years. 60% market share achievable...
Of course, Microsoft aren't going to take this lying down but IBM
and Apple = unstoppable forces.
Pretty much the only way Microsoft can hold ground now is by continuing their proprietary lock in technique, and buying the internet and making it work only with Vista ( maybe that's why they want Yahoo?)
